Texas Winter 2016-2017

[JDawg512]

Was very surprised to see bats fly out from under the i35 bridge over Howard Ln tonight. First because I've never seen bats there before and second, I don't remember seeing them this early!

That's pretty interesting. I was not aware that a colony had established there either. I've consistently seen people going to the Congress Avenue Bridge in the evenings throughout this winter which leads me to conclude that they never left. I haven't gone to see for myself but I don't see why a bunch of people would be standing along the east side of the bridge this time of year other than to watch the bats.

There's also a colony under the I35 bridge over McNeil that's been there a while. It's not nearly as big as the one under the Congress Ave bridge. Not really anywhere close to watch it. I see them come out if I'm going down I35 just when they take off. The panhandlers near the Howard Ln bridge would have a good view of those bats though.

I guess some do come early or stay through the winter, I have always thought they came back in March.

They used to leave at the end of October/beginning of November and not return till March. That stretch of time has been decreasing bit by bit over the last several years. Its possible some leave while others stay. I think I may look into it but the main takeaway is they don't feel the need to migrate into Mexico nowadays. A trend that is showing up in other species who's natural ranges and migrations have altered.

[bubba hotep]

CfsV2 is showing a trendline towards a strong El Nino coming. This would be unprecedented in our short history of watching ENSO. I would caution still forecasts of Enso this early but certainly an eye opener.

Rain and water folks would be happy at this news (as well as Pacific tropical cyclone enthusiasts) but cold lovers cringe at the idea more heat pumped into the globe.

If the QBO flips, it should but who really knows, then that would argue against another strong +ENSO event. Much like last spring when the strong +PDO was a red flag to ignore the models showing a mod to strong -ENSO event. It will certainly be interesting to watch it unfold.

Is it conceivable that ENSO can also modulate the QBO? The idea it did not flip last year (against fundamentally known meteorology that is should have flipped) after a record setting Super Nino one has to wonder. I am not well versed with QBO so curious.

Obviously, the QBO is strat oscillation but it does appear to influence the tropopause by possibly modulating temp, shear, convection, etc. I've seen speculation that ENSO driven convection can influence the QBO but there doesn't appear to be enough data to really firm anything up. The interesting thing is that there is a clear shift in the data post 1980 and that might indicate that the super ninos of '82, '97, and '15 may have fundamentally altered that relationship (purely speculation on my part).

The QBO influences on the atmosphere appear to have some predictive skill in the longer range but probably no more than other well established teleconnections. For instance, west based QBO may promote a stronger strat polar vortex, stronger Pacific Jet, +NAO during -ENSO. While east based QBO during +ENSO may promote a weaker start PV and more -NAO. So, that gives some hope for next winter, if we get el nino and QBO flip.

IIRC, new poster Q is more well versed in the QBO, so maybe he will chime in.

Looking towards March....

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/834981820555018240

[Ntxw]

That all sounds pretty reasonable to me. I like the idea of the first week of March possibly some below normal. But torch the rest of the month, at least that's what it looks like on ensembles and beyond.

DFW is over 60F average for the month of Feb, will blow out of the water the previous record holder 1976 at 58.6F, no freezes and no snow or ice. On record it is probably the worst (as in warm and snowless) winter month we have ever experienced. It's been closer to the climo of Oct or November than Feb.

December was 2.6F, January 5.3, and so far just over 11F in Feb which will probably make it top 5 warmest, possibly top 3. So it did get warmer as the winter went on and was mostly front heavy relatively speaking. It was still above normal to record above as the season progressed.

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, big changes in the longer range on the 12z Euro EPS.

[wxman57]

Hmmm, big changes in the longer range on the 12z Euro EPS.

I'm seeing above-normal temps for the southern U.S. in the 300+ hr panels. Cold in New England. Generally less stormy across the U.S. with more zonal flow. What are you seeing that catches your eye?

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose talks about the unusually warm February. He also said he does not expect it to be a brutally hot Summer, like in 2011. Well, that's good!


An Unusually Warm February
As you've likely noticed, the month of February has been unusually warm across the area. In Austin, Camp Mabry's temperature through Thursday has averaged 9.8 degrees above normal and there have been 9 days with readings at or above 80 degrees. Austin-Bergstrom's temperature has averaged 12.0 degrees above normal and there have been 13 days with temperatures at or 80 degrees. Both climate sites are on pace to record their warmest Februarys on record.

Several folks have asked me if the unusually warm weather so early in the year is a sign that the upcoming summer is going to be brutally hot. History has shown there isn't necessarily a strong correlation between an unusually mild winter and an unusually hot summer. I took a look at Austin's 10 warmest winters on record and the resultant summer's temperature. Four of the years with unusually mild winters did end up with top-ten warmest summers (1999, 2000, 2009 and 2011). But the other six years had summers that were somewhere around the 33rd hottest, or cooler.

Summer's temperature is dependent on several factors such as soil moisture, the position of the summer ridge of high pressure, tropical weather and sea surface temperatures in the Gulf. There will likely be several changes in the current global circulation pattern between now and June that will influence this summer's temperature. While I do think the upcoming summer will be warmer than normal and at times very hot, I am not expecting it to be brutally hot, similar to 2011.

Have a good weekend and enjoy the cooler temperatures.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

Bob Rose talks about the unusually warm February. He also said he does not expect it to be a brutally hot Summer, like in 2011. Well, that's good!


An Unusually Warm February
As you've likely noticed, the month of February has been unusually warm across the area. In Austin, Camp Mabry's temperature through Thursday has averaged 9.8 degrees above normal and there have been 9 days with readings at or above 80 degrees. Austin-Bergstrom's temperature has averaged 12.0 degrees above normal and there have been 13 days with temperatures at or 80 degrees. Both climate sites are on pace to record their warmest Februarys on record.

Several folks have asked me if the unusually warm weather so early in the year is a sign that the upcoming summer is going to be brutally hot. History has shown there isn't necessarily a strong correlation between an unusually mild winter and an unusually hot summer. I took a look at Austin's 10 warmest winters on record and the resultant summer's temperature. Four of the years with unusually mild winters did end up with top-ten warmest summers (1999, 2000, 2009 and 2011). But the other six years had summers that were somewhere around the 33rd hottest, or cooler.

Summer's temperature is dependent on several factors such as soil moisture, the position of the summer ridge of high pressure, tropical weather and sea surface temperatures in the Gulf. There will likely be several changes in the current global circulation pattern between now and June that will influence this summer's temperature. While I do think the upcoming summer will be warmer than normal and at times very hot, I am not expecting it to be brutally hot, similar to 2011.

Have a good weekend and enjoy the cooler temperatures.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

I am expecting it to be quite hot. That's the way to go, predict hot and you will be right 4/5 times of late. Spring should continue the streak of being unusually wet like the past several years.

[wxman57]

I'm predicting with a high degree of confidence that we'll see lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s for most of the summer. Whether that's "hot" or "cold" depends on your perspective. Given the pattern so far this year, I'd also expect temps and precip to be closer to normal than to something like 2011.

Looks like that cold front moved through IAH an hour or so ago. Temperature down to 84F now - and I didn't bring a jacket to work...

[Brent]

It's texas its going to be hot lol

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, big changes in the longer range on the 12z Euro EPS.

I'm seeing above-normal temps for the southern U.S. in the 300+ hr panels. Cold in New England. Generally less stormy across the U.S. with more zonal flow. What are you seeing that catches your eye?

Mostly the relaxing Pacific jet, pretty big change from yesterday. That could set the stage for a -EPO with cold in Canada. The last couple of -EPO swings developed with above normal temps already in place over WCAN. Still, that is a pretty long stretch from the end of the run to cold in Texas lol

[Ntxw]

Interestingly enough, EPS has surface cold and high pressures for a pattern a couple weeks back would lead to a torch. Yet it dislodges what cold there is in Canada. Shorter wavelengths means different results.

[Tireman4]

I'm predicting with a high degree of confidence that we'll see lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s for most of the summer. Whether that's "hot" or "cold" depends on your perspective. Given the pattern so far this year, I'd also expect temps and precip to be closer to normal than to something like 2011.

Looks like that cold front moved through IAH an hour or so ago. Temperature down to 84F now - and I didn't bring a jacket to work...

Sigh

[Brent]

GFS has upper 20s at DFW at 240 hours before the torch returns at the end of the run

Winter's last gasp?

[Texas Snowman]

Bottomed out at 31 degrees this morning in Denison. Stayed below freezing a couple of hours.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 27 this morning in northern Clay county. Luckily I haven't planted the garden yet.

[weatherdude1108]

Bottomed out at 42 here. Very nice!

[bubba hotep]

Busted low here with 31

[BTAYLOR5021]

37 degrees here in THE Colony Tx...10 miles north of Dfw...I guess winter is over *sigh* I have saw where unusually warm February's are followed by slightly to moderate cooler March...who knows though...someone please help...will next winter be this way?

[Brent]

DFW is on track for warmest winter on record... 1999-2000 is the current record. Only 4 days left and 3 of them will be above normal with the likelihood of one last 80 degree Tuesday...

Last winter was 5th...

[TheProfessor]

76 degrees yesterday with Texas like Storms and now it's 34 degrees and snowing