(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[gboudx]

How do you measure 0.01" of sleet? Is that a single grain layer, 2, 3? Or do you mean that's what the liquid would measure when melted?

[Extremeweatherguy]

How do you measure 0.01" of sleet? Is that a single grain layer, 2, 3? Or do you mean that's what the liquid would measure when melted?

well I am expecting mostly freezing rain down here in areas of north Houston...so those accumulations would be for freezing rain. As for sleet...only a few pellets or may be a trace is possible if we get under a colder pocket of upper level air.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dr. Neil Frank on KHOU says that he is "worried about Saturday night" and says that this setup is one that you would expect to see for a SE Texas ice event. He also has a high tomorrow forecasted at 38F (but said a few areas may be above 40F early). On Sunday he is also forecasting 38F.

[southerngale]

KFDM here in Beaumont slightly lowered the low and high again for Sunday but raised tomorrow's high a little. Are models trending colder for tomorrow? If so, I assume they'll change that again.

Some local mets here in Houston are saying that we will drop through the day...so even if it is 47F there tomorrow morning, it may be 35F there tomorrow evening. The NWS here in Houston however has a high of 39-40F. Basically...whatever you wake up to tomorrow will be your high and as the rain moves in..you should have falling or steady temps. all day.

Yeah, I just saw the Live at Five and that's what he said too. The temp should drop during the day.

He does think any freezing precip should stay a little north of Beaumont though. Do the locals there think it will reach Houston? Beaumont is further north than Houston, but a bit further south than Conroe.

[southerngale]

Well, I think you pretty much answered that in the post above, assuming Dr. Frank is talking about Houston itself. That will teach me to hit reply, get up for a few minutes, then type my post and submit it without looking for new posts.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, I think you pretty much answered that in the post above, assuming Dr. Frank is talking about Houston itself. That will teach me to hit reply, get up for a few minutes, then type my post and submit it without looking for new posts.

well Dr. Neil Frank is saying it "may" reach us...but Channel 2 is pretty much staying with the NWS and saying Conroe north and Channel 13 didn't really mention it. I don't know what channel 9 is thinking right now as they do not come on until 9pm. It is pretty much a mixed response from the Media here in Houston. I, however, personally think that Northern Houston over to Beaumont WILL see some frozen precip. before all is said and done...especially if you live in the outskirts of town or north of either city. DOWNTOWN Houston will probably escape the ice though...as well as areas south of Beaumont. I think the key now is to watch closely what happens tomorrow...If things go good (temps. in the 30s during the afternoon, precip, low dewpoints) then the ice is on...and if things go bad (warmer than expected temps, or less precip.) then ice threats will be decreased. Stay tuned...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just want to let everyone know that temps. are now (finally) beginning to fall from the steady lower 50s we have seen all day. My backyard is now in the middle to upper 40s...Hooks is at 48F...and IAH is at 49F. These numbers are all 1-3F cooler than last hour. Also...dewpoints have fallen 1F during the last hour.

[vbhoutex]

Current temp in Spring Branch area is 45º which is down several degrees from just a few hours ago. I guess the real push of cold air is coming in now.

[ROCK]

I am still around 54F.....you northern guys probably have a better chance for an ice event on Saturday than me....

[aggiecutter]

My final call based on the latest information. There will be a light coating of ice north of a Shreveport-College Station-Austin line,including those cities. However, in areas of NE Texas north and east of line from Paris to Atlanta Texas will see significant to heavy accumulations of ice. That's where the moisture will be more abundant, or greater lift.

For Texarkana, I'm predicting 1/2 to 3/4 of inch accumulation of ice, with the possiblity of upto 1". Anything over an 1/2 inch ice accumulation from freezing rain can cause quite a bit damage to trees and power lines. When you approach inch accumulations of ice, then the damage can be devastating.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My final call based on the latest information. There will be a light coating of ice north of a Shreveport-College Station-Austin line,including those cities. However, in areas of NE Texas north and east of line from Paris to Atlanta Texas will see significant to heavy accumulations of ice. That's where the moisture will be more abundant, or greater lift.

For Texarkana, I'm predicting 1/2 to 3/4 of inch accumulation of ice, with the possiblity of upto 1". Anything over an 1/2 inch ice accumulation from freezing rain can cause quite a bit damage to trees and power lines. When you approach inch accumulations of ice, then the damage can be devastating.

Are you talking about just tonight or the whole accumulation from the entire system? Because if you are talking about the entire system, then your ice coating line is too far north. The freezing rain is forecast to reach at least Conroe tomorrow night according to the NWS in Houston..they also said it could be as far south as northern Houston on the local news tonight..so the shreveport to College station to Austin line is probably too far north.

[aggiecutter]

Some dryer air will need to filter down into the northern suburbs of Houston before they can get any ice. The current dewpoint at Conroe is 43. They'll need dewpoints in the mid-20's for an icing event to occur. With dewpoints in the mid 20's and parent temps in the upper 30's, they would probably cool down to around 32 after 4-5 hours of light rain. The air would probably saturate at 32 and that would be the new dp temp.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Some dryer air will need to filter down into the northern suburbs of Houston before they can get any ice. The current dewpoint at Conroe is 43. They'll need dewpoints in the mid-20's for an icing event to occur. With dewpoints in the mid 20's and parent temps in the upper 30's, they would probably cool down to around 32 after 4-5 hours of light rain. The air would probably saturate at 32 and that would be the new dp temp.

yes, I have noticed the dewpoints too. They are slowly dropping off though, and are forecast to fall tonight and tomorrow as the dry air to our north and west oozes into the Houston area. At Hooks airport in Tomball they have gone from a dewpoint of 48F at two this afternoon to 44F now...and in Conroe they have gone from a 49F dewpoint to 42F dewpoint (as of the 9pm) update.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Cecilia sinclair on channel 9 just drew a line from Houston northward and said that she expects ice in that area on Sunday morning. This line went all the way to downtown Houston! She also said that while no accumulations were likely downtown, that outlying areas could see some accumulation. This situation continues to get more and more exciting!

[wxman22]

Just looked at WB39 & Fox26 news and they both showed a weather graphic that had frozen precip all the way to Houston, Sincelia Senclair also said she thinks as far south as Houston (proper) there could be frozen precip she has the low tomorow at 33F deegrees..... Things are getting more intresting....

Opps sorry Extremewetherguy I guess we both decided to post about the same thing at about the same time....

[wxman22]

WOW look at this loop of the 18z NAM(0z precip type not out yet) precip type looks VERY INTRESTING.....


http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just looked at WB39 & Fox26 news and they both showed a weather graphic that had frozen precip all the way to Houston, Sincelia Senclair also said she thinks as far south as Houston (proper) there could be frozen precip she has the low tomorow at 33F deegrees..... Things are getting more intresting....

Opps sorry Extremewetherguy I guess we both decided to post about the same thing at about the same time....

lol. Well I did not know about the WB39 forecast. So know that makes WB39, Fox26 and KHOU11 all on board for the possible winter weather in Downtown Houston. I hope all these mets are right!

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW look at this loop of the 18z NAM(0z precip type not out yet) precip type looks VERY INTRESTING.....


http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

Your looking way out on Monday...take a look at these first:


http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US
^^HOLY!!! Look at all this winter precip. in Houston on Sunday morning!^^

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US
^^Sunday afternoon..hmm may be we will see a winter threat then too?^^


WOW!!! With these kind of model runs...we could be talking advisories for big chuncks of the NWS warning area! These models are more promising than ever!

**If the ETA is right then we could be talking about a winter event from Sat. night trough the whole day on Sunday! Dare I say a high staying at 32 or below on Sunday????**

[ROCK]

I am still finding it hard to believe any freezing rain will fall any farther south than Conroe. Still in the mid-50's here 25 miles south of DT. This next shot of dry air better be really cold.....

Just a word on Sinclair. Shes not that great of a forecaster IMO. More of a good parrot for the NWS.

[jasons2k]

I was on board for possible snow awhile back but not the ice. All it does is cause problems IMO. Wrecks and power outages = possible injuries/deaths and major inconveniences.....beyond me why that's classified as a 'good' thing.