Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TropicalTundra]

Little sleet shower in Temple with hilariously small sleet pellets. Like dang near grains of sand.

[ColdFusion]

I think I don’t really understand the concept of 100% chance of something happening when it comes to weather. Why not say 90% chance and save yourself room for the , very often , busts? Not trying to sound snarky at all, I know it sounds that way, but when I personally see 100% chance, to me that means absolute certainty, with zero chance of other outcomes.

If you got 1 sleet pellet or rain drop that is 100% something fell. A forecast of percentages does not tell you how much falls.

We tend to correlate confidence in coverage vs amounts, which isn't what they are doing.

Technically you are on point, and i get that - but if I invited you to a party and said skip dinner, because there's 100% chance I'll be serving food - and you showed up and I fed you a grain of rice. Technically food was served, but it far didn't meet the advertised expectations in the context it was delivered.

And by no means am I saying we wont see some more later tonight (100% chance right? LOL) , and I'm sure its going to be bone chilling cold - but when see a forecast, like for this afternoon get revised from 100% to 30%...it just seems weird is all.

[Tejas89]

No one should’ve woken up expecting 3” of sleet in DFW. Everything is pretty much tracking to the forecast all week. Remarkably well, really.

The one exception is escaping a lot of freezing rain. Round 2 will get the sleet/snow totals up if it holds. Always a chance of getting slotted but FWD still has 100% chance of sleet (heavy at times) with snow mixing in for this evening and tonight.

I can’t imagine Oklahoma getting close to the colossal snow totals expected yesterday, though.

[goCoogs]

Colder air is moving into West Houston. Woke up at 7:45 to 50.2 degrees. Down to 47.7 now.
A crack of thunder woke me at 5:30 this morning.
1.4" of rain since midnight.

[Texas Snow]

To be clear yes they had 100% chance for DFW today. With the widespread precip so far this morning, that has been accurate. But if you look at the forecast now that we are inside the day, they have broken it out further. Now it says 90% now dropping to 30% later today. That was always the plan with a lull this afternoon before picking up tonight.

[foulbeast]

A retired Evan Andrews back live on Fox 4.

And he poo-poo'd the idea of a storm next weekend for DFW. Paraphrasing - "Maybe a light wintry mix but no big deal".

[Ntxw]

I think I don’t really understand the concept of 100% chance of something happening when it comes to weather. Why not say 90% chance and save yourself room for the , very often , busts? Not trying to sound snarky at all, I know it sounds that way, but when I personally see 100% chance, to me that means absolute certainty, with zero chance of other outcomes.

If you got 1 sleet pellet or rain drop that is 100% something fell. A forecast of percentages does not tell you how much falls.

We tend to correlate confidence in coverage vs amounts, which isn't what they are doing.

Technically you are on point, and i get that - but if I invited you to a party and said skip dinner, because there's 100% chance I'll be serving food - and you showed up and I fed you a grain of rice. Technically food was served, but it far didn't meet the advertised expectations in the context it was delivered.

And by no means am I saying we wont see some more later tonight (100% chance right? LOL) , and I'm sure its going to be bone chilling cold - but when see a forecast, like for this afternoon get revised from 100% to 30%...it just seems weird is all.

I'm with you, the changes in forecast percentage is probably them adjusting in real time to the waves of precip which becomes clearer. Not speaking for the NWS, but that would be my thinking, This is why it is important to read forecast discussions and understand hourly grids.

[BradKingK]

Little sleet shower in Temple with hilariously small sleet pellets. Like dang near grains of sand.

Is it graupel? Graupel usually bounces but does not make a sound like sleet does, and snow doesn't usually bounce.

Graupel is a type of precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets freeze onto falling snowflakes, creating small, soft pellets that resemble hail. It typically occurs in winter storms and is distinct from both snow and hail in terms of formation and appearance.

[Brent]

No one should’ve woken up expecting 3” of sleet in DFW. Everything is pretty much tracking to the forecast all week. Remarkably well, really.

The one exception is escaping a lot of freezing rain. Round 2 will get the sleet/snow totals up if it holds. Always a chance of getting slotted but FWD still has 100% chance of sleet (heavy at times) with snow mixing in for this evening and tonight.

I can’t imagine Oklahoma getting close to the colossal snow totals expected yesterday, though.

Oh if we get a foot I'll be shocked at this point

I'm stretching to call it 3

[orangeblood]

Strong signal for another storm Friday/Saturday, plenty of upper level cold it appears for snow looking at the upper level forecast soundings for those in the S/2 of the state. Operationals will likely wobble back and forth with this storm until we get to early next week.

[Gotwood]

Round 1 was supposed to be more freezing rain than anything. Turned out to be more sleet than anything. Next round supposed to be more sleet than anything. Could we somehow get more snow than anything? Especially in areas in the mid teens and single digits. Would be glorious to see those ratios.

[Ntxw]

No one should’ve woken up expecting 3” of sleet in DFW. Everything is pretty much tracking to the forecast all week. Remarkably well, really.

The one exception is escaping a lot of freezing rain. Round 2 will get the sleet/snow totals up if it holds. Always a chance of getting slotted but FWD still has 100% chance of sleet (heavy at times) with snow mixing in for this evening and tonight.

I can’t imagine Oklahoma getting close to the colossal snow totals expected yesterday, though.

Cold, dry air has won somewhat up there in Oklahoma at least for the first round.

[HockeyTx82]

A retired Evan Andrews back live on Fox 4.

And he poo-poo'd the idea of a storm next weekend for DFW. Paraphrasing - "Maybe a light wintry mix but no big deal".

Well someone has to call us out and keep us in check

[Brent]

People still think a foot is possible here lol its gonna have to be whiteout conditions all night til lunch tomorrow at this point. I don't buy it

[Texas Snow]

A retired Evan Andrews back live on Fox 4.

And he poo-poo'd the idea of a storm next weekend for DFW. Paraphrasing - "Maybe a light wintry mix but no big deal".

Yet this is what he said last Sat about this Saturday. I think I’ll take my chances.

It starts to get more interesting by late week-weekend as another system approaches AND Arctic air tries to ramp back up. Ahead of this, we'll easily see stronger SW to South winds and milder air Friday. It could be pretty warm Saturday...and then quickly turn colder after that. Honestly the forecast through Saturday looks solid...after that it's all a question of where this next front hangs up and stalls. So we wait!

It’s currently 22° at DFW airport Evan.

[kassi]

Currently 45° in Beaumont and it's been raining for hours, mostly light rain

[foulbeast]

A retired Evan Andrews back live on Fox 4.

And he poo-poo'd the idea of a storm next weekend for DFW. Paraphrasing - "Maybe a light wintry mix but no big deal".

Yet this is what he said last Sat about this Saturday. lol I think I’ll take my chances.

It starts to get more interesting by late week-weekend as another system approaches AND Arctic air tries to ramp back up. Ahead of this, we'll easily see stronger SW to South winds and milder air Friday. [color=#FF4000]It could be pretty warm Saturday...and then quickly turn colder after that. Honestly the forecast through Saturday looks solid...after that it's all a question of where this next front hangs up and stalls. So we wait![/color]


It’s currently 22° at DFW airport Evan.

Somebody kept their receipts...

[rwfromkansas]

Got another brief shower. May be filling in slightly.

Down to 18. Geez this cold means business.

As for Evan he was wrong about this storm lol

[TropicalTundra]

Little sleet shower in Temple with hilariously small sleet pellets. Like dang near grains of sand.

Is it graupel? Graupel usually bounces but does not make a sound like sleet does, and snow doesn't usually bounce.

Graupel is a type of precipitation that forms when supercooled water droplets freeze onto falling snowflakes, creating small, soft pellets that resemble hail. It typically occurs in winter storms and is distinct from both snow and hail in terms of formation and appearance.

It was 100% sleet with the noise it was making, plus transparent compared to graupel. Just super tiny little pings that were barely audible from inside my house.

About 5 minutes ago I went out to check if it was still sleeting, and it looked like little snowflakes were mixing in but they were pretty tiny too so I’m not sure.

[Captmorg70]

People still think a foot is possible here lol its gonna have to be whiteout conditions all night til lunch tomorrow at this point. I don't buy it

Got to be rooting for some insane ratios. Which might not be too crazy considering the temps.