Texas Winter 2012-2013

[vbhoutex]

Well, we will see how this pans out. But, the local mets have taken notice as well. Steve McCauley(WFAA Dallas) has mentioned a cool down in about a week and the predicted high from CBS Dallas for Friday is 58. Time will tell. Just when I was getting used to 70's and 80's, winter makes one final push.

We have at least one here in Houston(David Paul-KHOU)who is saying "don't put up the coats yet" even though we are expecting highs in the 80s this weekend.

[Portastorm]

All three major medium range models -- the GFS, Euro, and Canadian -- are all showing a major cold front for next weekend for the Central and Eastern CONUS. The ensembles also support this, so I would say the model support is fairly substantial at this point. Now, I will say we have seen this before only to have the proverbial football pulled from us as we attempt to kick it. I'll have a lot more confidence in next weekend's shivery surprise if we see the models all showing the same thing in a few days.

Based on what I'm seeing, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see a freeze in the northern half of Texas with high temps in the 40s for a day or two with 50s for me and my San Antone buds and friends in southeast Texas. And with temps so warm right now, this front will feel "wintry" to us due to temps dropping some 30 degrees. We shall see.

[aggiecutter]

Good article on the GFS and EURO weather models. Head of the NWS says GFS will get a substantial upgrade in computing power over the next year and a half.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/1 ... 72739.html

[Stephanie]

Good article on the GFS and EURO weather models. Head of the NWS says GFS will get a substantial upgrade in computing power over the next year and a half.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/1 ... 72739.html

That's great news about the GFS.

[Ntxw]

Cool down is still on target for later this week. Euro is most adamant about a system crossing the southern plains and along with fellow international models suggest a possible freeze for many areas. GFS of course is not as cold and mostly dry. We'll see but a spring cold snap still coming.

[Ntxw]

Unusually rare event is currently unfolding in the Arctic region. It's uninamous the -AO is going to reach record levels for this time of year (extremely low any time of year in fact and has never happened past early March <- even then it's only occurred once this month).

On cue the globals and ensembles are now showing split flow with a shortwave diving very far to the south into the southern plains to round out this week. This usually equates to the possibility of a significant late winter storm for somebody. With the AO being where it is, don't be surprised if something weird happens. Just my two cents.

[gboudx]

"Weird" would be if it rained. Wintry precip would need another word.

[Tireman4]

How about crazy!!!!

[Portastorm]

"Weird" would be if it rained. Wintry precip would need another word.

Well said, sir, well said!

As for what lies ahead, GFS vs. Euro/CMC in terms of what to expect. GFS drier and milder. Euro would suggest some "weird" weather for north Texas.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You fellows can HAVE IT ALL!!!

I will be laughing so hard if we warm up and you fellows get our weather!

[Texas Snowman]

This looks like the SPRING of Wxman 57's discontent!

[dhweather]

From the FTW AFD

GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AN EML
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS
TO THE EAST WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.


2013 - the decade of the strong CAP lives on...........

[vbhoutex]

From the FTW AFD

GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AN EML
WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS
TO THE EAST WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.


2013 - the decade of the strong CAP lives on...........

And it is destroying our chances for rain in SE TX and we are getting drier and drier. I only got 0.16" of rain last night which brings me close to 0.50" this month. We may be looking at a drought as bad as or worse than 2011 if this keeps up, and I am not the only one saying that.

[Ntxw]

The AO indeed fell to record levels (post equinox) below -5 and is in the top 10 lowest ever reading since records were kept in 1950.

A late frost and freeze is likely over the northern half of Texas and maybe even the hill country late this weekend. The immediate big cities of DFW may hover around or near freezing for a period, surrounding cities likely will get below that. Protect those early plantings! Prep now if this is your area of concern. Houston, Austin, San Antonio should remain above freezing but Austin is pretty close.

Not seeing any significant rainfall for Texas the next 7 days, intermittent light showers for the northeast 1/3rd of the state the next several days as a late season storm effects areas north of the Red River with winter.

[somethingfunny]

Well, I'm pretty sure the growing season is officially on after the outlying areas get their light freeze with this front. It was a nice winter, though!

Before you guys get too depressed... remember the time it snowed on Christmas????

[dhweather]

Break out the champagne!!!!!! The CAP is getting STRONGER!!


850MB WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE WEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE CAP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DESPITE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO BREAK. FOR THIS REASON...LEFT ALL SHOWERS MENTIONED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


It's looking really, really dry for the next 10-14 days.

[South Texas Storms]

Break out the champagne!!!!!! The CAP is getting STRONGER!!


850MB WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE WEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE CAP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DESPITE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO BREAK. FOR THIS REASON...LEFT ALL SHOWERS MENTIONED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


It's looking really, really dry for the next 10-14 days.

No it's not. The GFS has consistently been showing a strong storm system digging into the Desert SW in about 7 days. The GFS indicates that a large region of Texas could see rainfall totals over 1 inch from this system in about 10 days.

But this weekend's system is gonna suck for us.

[Ntxw]

Well, I'm pretty sure the growing season is officially on after the outlying areas get their light freeze with this front. It was a nice winter, though!

Before you guys get too depressed... remember the time it snowed on Christmas????

I wish it were this easy, this point of the year it needs to stop! Not only is it delaying growing season it is limiting severe season with cool stable air across the eastern US, Texas included way into the gulf. The guidance suggest relaxing of the AO but because it is so low additional threats of light frost and maybe another freeze next week as well (ECMWF). April will start out no good either as a renewed -AO period may rise again as mountain torque and GWO forces it.

Not only have we dipped low we have also been in one of the longest stretches of -AO on record. May exceed 50+ days! It began in early-mid Feb.

[dhweather]

Break out the champagne!!!!!! The CAP is getting STRONGER!!


850MB WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE WEST WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL
STRENGTHEN THE CAP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DESPITE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO BREAK. FOR THIS REASON...LEFT ALL SHOWERS MENTIONED
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


It's looking really, really dry for the next 10-14 days.

No it's not. The GFS has consistently been showing a strong storm system digging into the Desert SW in about 7 days. The GFS indicates that a large region of Texas could see rainfall totals over 1 inch from this system in about 10 days.

But this weekend's system is gonna suck for us.

Maybe I'm confused. Here's 6 hour precip totals from the 12Z GFS.


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[South Texas Storms]

The time frame for heavy rain chances in Texas is just after 192 hours. The 12z Euro and GFS both show a storm system approaching Texas in about 9-10 days from now.