Official GA/AL/TN/NC/SC Cold Winter Rain Thread.

[Skywatch_NC]

yay...90% chance of rain tomorrow with temps struggling to make it to 44*F...ugh...does that count as "Cold Winter Rain"???

*That* is classic, southern-style Cold Winter Rain, my friend.

That was what I was afraid of... hey...it only drops about 10*F from that 44*F and it could be the Christmas of 1989 all over again...

Tim, you and your folks come out to Raleigh tomorrow as Wake Co. and northward could get between a trace to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces by late day!

Wouldn't count on it the way this winter is going...

Anything can happen though!

Just *crossing my fingers* and putting some faith in Greg Fishel!

[Pi Master]

oh please oh please oh please

[breeze]

Well, I'm right on the "Heavy Snow Warning"/"Freezing Rain & Sleet" line
with this thing in TN - I'm gonna think positive - if I can't build a snowman,
I'll build an igloo!

[breeze]

The "Heavy Snow Warning" for TN has been cancelled, now, btw.
We are presently under a "Snow Advisory".

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

....WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TODAY...

.COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. DURING THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SPREAD PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM VERNON TO JASPER...AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ONEONTA...TO
ANNISTON...AND HEFLIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY
EVENING...ENDING AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ALZ011>015-181700-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.060218T0900Z-060219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.060218T0900Z-060219T0600Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER
109 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AN AREA OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM THIS MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 6 AM AND 3 PM...
WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM VERNON TO JASPER.
MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
TO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS CAN ALSO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST ON THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

ALZ017>021-026-181700-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.060218T1200Z-060219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0002.060218T1200Z-060219T0600Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...PELL CITY...MOODY
109 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AFTER 6 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO
BE MIXED WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ONEONTA TO
ANNISTON...TO HEFLIN BETWEEN 9 AM THROUGH 6 PM. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 0.05 OF AN INCH...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END LATE THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN ALSO CAUSE
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST ON THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SITUATION

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID U.S. DRIFTS TO THE ERN U.S.
THROUGH SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO N GA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A POTENTIAL MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY EXPANDING THE ADVISORY A
COUPLE OF COUNTIES E AND S. AS WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...LIFT AND
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING FOR THE COUNTIES IN THE COLDEST
AIR. WILL CONTINUE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS TONIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE MIXED
BAG OF WINTER PRECIP. ONLY LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
EQUALLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE COLDER AIR OF N GA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO COME ACROSS MONDAY AND CONTINUE
ON AND OFF INTO FRIDAY. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY PRECIP AS WEAK
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA 44 32 43 35 / 90 30 20 30
ATHENS 50 32 43 34 / 90 30 20 20
GAINESVILLE 42 31 41 35 / 100 20 20 30
ROME 40 30 44 35 / 100 30 20 30
COLUMBUS 55 39 50 41 / 70 50 20 30
MACON 59 39 50 38 / 70 60 20 20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM TODAY FOR
CATOOSA...DADE...MURRAY...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

[JenyEliza]

We're cloudy and 39 at 9:25 am EST. The rain is supposed to get here later this morning/this afternoon.

Looking forward to another lovely cold winter rain.

[JenyEliza]

I'm all ready....rain should be here around 10:30 or so....

[JenyEliza]

Update from FFC:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1039 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

.UPDATE...
WE MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION /VIRGA/ IS
ALREADY FALLING IN THESE AREAS AND WITH THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD
IN THESE AREAS...EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL SET IN QUICKLY.
ALSO...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS /BRIEFLY GUSTY/ TO ADVECT IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IF ANY RISE TO
TEMPERATURES. THIS BEING SAID...FORECAST TEMPS WERE RUNNING A
LITTLE WARMER THAN OBSERVATIONS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THESE AND
BUMPED DOWN THE MAXES IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE
ATLANTA METRO. LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT
LOWERED TEMPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS MACON.

UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND NOT
FAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...LITTLE OF THIS WILL REACH SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...SO
LOWERED POPS IN THESE AREAS. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT ELSEWHERE. HAD TO
ADJUST WEATHER GRIDS A BIT DUE TO CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES...ENDED
UP WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION A TAD FURTHER SOUTH. KNOCKED AROUND
THE IDEA OF EXPANDING THE ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL...BUT
REPORTING SITES IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA ADJACENT TO THE NON-
ADVISORY AREA ARE SHOWING RAIN. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA DO STILL HAVE A
WAY TO GO BEFORE ANY FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND AND REACH THE NUISANCE CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO RE-
EVALUATE FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...AS CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT
6PM...AND POPS LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS LOWER TO BELOW
FREEZING. WILL WATCH PRECIP TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY. ON
TOP OF THIS...WITH ALL THIS MOISTURE HANGING AROUND...AND TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE
MESSY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THUS...WILL HAVE TO PUT SOMETHING
OUT TO COVER THIS...WHETHER IT BE INCLUDED IN AN ADVISORY OR IN A
STAND-ALONE STATEMENT.

ZONES AND ADVISORY UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

[quandary]

This really isn't in the right area, but Weather Channel reports that my area is receiving Snow (22904) with a temperature of 35. Meanwhile, it is reporting Snow at Lynchburg, VA, with a temperature of 30. Dew point in Lynchburg is 28. However, I don't see a single flake.

[JenyEliza]

Quandary...the way this winter has gone, it's fine if you want to put your report here. Lynchburg has been as snow-starved as the rest of us further south.

[Pi Master]

Code: Select all

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
559 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
559 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...HOWEVER...AND LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND MAY BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET.
AGAIN...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...ENDING IN THE EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING
SNOW INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE ON PRESIDENTS DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY TYPE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TODAY.

$$

Not the strongest language in the world :/ We're not quite in that northern-central region

[JenyEliza]

We're cloudy and 39 at 9:25 am EST. The rain is supposed to get here later this morning/this afternoon.

Looking forward to another lovely cold winter rain.

Rain has moved in (very light) and the temp has dropped to 36F.

Forecast for tonight:

Tonight: A chance of rain and sleet before 1am, then a slight chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Skywatch_NC]

Has been light sleet here in northern Wake Co NC since between 11 and 11:30 am ET.

Eric

[JenyEliza]

Has been light sleet here in northern Wake Co NC since between 11 and 11:30 am ET.

Eric

Cool!

[Brent]

It is miserable out here. 39.9 and dropping slowly. No rain at the moment but it's overcast and very dreary.

[Ivanhater]

46.7 and going down at a good clip, low expected to hit 35 with 50 percent chance of rain...closest call for my area so far...gonna be interesting tonight!

[JenyEliza]

It is miserable out here. 39.9 and dropping slowly. No rain at the moment but it's overcast and very dreary.

We're at 35 with light rain. Cold, wet and dreary.

[Skywatch_NC]

Hopefully this next round of wintry weather late weekend for here in central NC will pack more punch so to say! So far a ho-hummer here today. *YAAAWN*

Eric

[JenyEliza]

Latest update from FFC:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
A VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN
THICKNESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES/WET BULBS...HEIGHT OF MOISTURE
AND SATURATION LEVELS...AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR QPF.
THROW THAT ALL INTO THE FORECAST BLENDER...AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL GET
SOMETHING REASONABLE.

WE`VE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY. ALSO...THE FIRE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ARE ALL
BELOW FREEZING. WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE
TO COMBINE TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND PRECIP EXPANDS BACK ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE
ADVISORY AREA BOTH IN TIME AND SPACE TO COVER THE NORTHERNMOST
COUPLE OF TIERS OF COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIFT DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND LUCKILY POPS DECREASE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
THE UPPER 20S WE COULD HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. AS IT
STANDS...ANYTHING THAT ACCUMULATES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NUISANCE
CATEGORY AND AN ADVISORY WILL SUFFICE. OF COURSE...WITH SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES...BLACK ICE WILL BE PREVALENT ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. WILL INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE ADVISORY AND
IN AN SPS FOR AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MIXED PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA THIS
EVENING...AND FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO BELOW
FREEZING.

AS IF TODAY AND TONIGHT WEREN`T ENOUGH...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FEED INTO THE UNITED STATES WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
TO ALLOW CONDENSATION AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THANKS TO THAT HUGE ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES UNDER
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO WARM. AFTER A BIT OF A
LULL SUNDAY...POPS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY GET INTO THE 40S...MAYBE LOWER 50S SOUTH IF WE`RE LUCKY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WE DROP TO NEAR FREEZING AGAIN IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...AND WITH POPS RETURNING...YET AGAIN WE HAVE THE
COMPLICATION OF WINTER PRECIP POSSIBILITIES. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED A MIX IN THE EXTREME NORTH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY. NOT
QUITE AS COLD MONDAY NIGHT...MID 30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME UPPER JETLET IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...SO SYNOPTIC LIFT
INCREASES ALLOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE...POPS
INCREASE TO LIKELY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE FORECAST SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG MOISTURE FEED
CONTINUES...AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF LIFT TO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE GOOD NEWS...TEMPERATURES RECOVER THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THAT ARCTIC HIGH FINALLY MODERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
HIGHS BEGIN FROM THE 40S TO 60S ACROSS THE AREA AND OSCILLATE UP
TO 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND BACK DOWN TO 50S AND 60S WHEN THE NEXT
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DOWN TO 30S AND 40S.