Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

What's the timing for the next cooldown? Some models are hinting at a big cold front sometime Tuesday afternoon- Wednesday morning although it's been flip flopping.

850mb temps starts falling in Oklahoma and NTX Tuesday night and the rest Wednesday once the big storm cuts through the plains.Then it's 40s/30s and lower through Christmas most likely (outbreaks notwithstanding.) After its passage the path is down, with progressively colder airmasses. Beyond that so far we have about 1-2 days worth of ensembles showing the EPO change.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What's the timing for the next cooldown? Some models are hinting at a big cold front sometime Tuesday afternoon- Wednesday morning although it's been flip flopping.

850mb temps starts falling in Oklahoma and NTX Tuesday night and the rest Wednesday once the big storm cuts through the plains.Then it's 40s/30s and lower through Christmas most likely (outbreaks notwithstanding.) After its passage the path is down, with progressively colder airmasses. Beyond that so far we have about 1-2 days worth of ensembles showing the EPO change.

That storm tries to regenerate further east. Beast!

That will buckle the Arctic air.

[Ntxw]

Here is the 12z Euro 850s temps. Not bitter but such widespread chill across the continent, don't see that every day coast to coast weird map for sure. Again don't trust it either, not like it's been steadfast.

[Ntxw]

You can see the euro's fault going on, it is struggling mightily with the Pacific.

[Cerlin]

Here is the 12z Euro 850s temps. Not bitter but such widespread chill across the continent, don't see that every day coast to coast weird map for sure. Again don't trust it either, not like it's been steadfast.

https://i.imgur.com/y2VUF9b.png

Well, now that the Euro is showing a solution I want, I now deem it king! Who cares if it’s been wrong!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

You can see the euro's fault going on, it is struggling mightily with the Pacific.

[Iceresistance]

You can see the euro's fault going on, it is struggling mightily with the Pacific.

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/magic.gif.9feeb326cfb4ae9c40cc8e8b79166923.gif

Would you mind if you can compare this to the Euro runs?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

You can see the euro's fault going on, it is struggling mightily with the Pacific.

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/magic.gif.9feeb326cfb4ae9c40cc8e8b79166923.gif

Would you mind if you can compare this to the Euro runs?

I’ll pull it this afternoon when I get off the road.

[Iceresistance]

Also, if Y'all might be wondering why we have yet to show the ICON is because the snowfall potential range is too far away for it to be picked up by the ICON/German model.

[Iceresistance]

BAMWX's Tweets just came out

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1600922317412237312




 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1600917524472037377

[Ntxw]

Yeah natgas has bought in to the runs.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro and EPS are showing off the scale -EPO, but is it just their bluff?

[orangeblood]

You can see the euro's fault going on, it is struggling mightily with the Pacific.

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/magic.gif.9feeb326cfb4ae9c40cc8e8b79166923.gif

Great visual diagram…you can see the model slowly pick up on the Discontinuous Retrogression of the Greenland Ridge over to Alaska before it finally connects across the top of the continent. Most of the Major US Arctic Outbreaks evolve just like this

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah natgas has bought in to the runs.

NG (Henry Hub) up 7% today.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Beautiful output, especially the end, from the EPS

[Iceresistance]

Beautiful output, especially the end, from the EPS

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/455131249_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthAmerica500hPaHeightAnom(5).gif.3e9ddb96bb9f0dd0c4ab25bfa5e54bb4.gif

The EPS may have improved, but I still don't trust the Operational Euro model.

[rwfromkansas]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

Am I wrong in that the situation was the opposite just a few days ago...Euro was on team cold, GFS warm. Now the opposite? If so, why would you assume the Euro is right when it flip-flopped as well? It would be hard to say what to trust in that situation to me.

[Iceresistance]

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_T850a_us_fh138-240.gif

[Texas Snow]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

Am I wrong in that the situation was the opposite just a few days ago...Euro was on team cold, GFS warm. Now the opposite? If so, why would you assume the Euro is right when it flip-flopped as well? It would be hard to say what to trust in that situation to me.

Lol a couple days ago this forum was team “the upgrade ruined the GFS it can’t be trusted” now it’s team “GFS is king and euro can’t be trusted”. This is why I always like to see what wxman57 has to say when everyone is behind one solution just for devils advocate if nothing else. Either way, I think we would all like to see some run to run consensus across all models.

[Ntxw]

Euro has zero cold air and no high center dropping south on the 18th, while the GFS has a 1048mb high coming south. No agreement at all. GFS is probably wrong, though. It just isn't handling the pattern well.

Am I wrong in that the situation was the opposite just a few days ago...Euro was on team cold, GFS warm. Now the opposite? If so, why would you assume the Euro is right when it flip-flopped as well? It would be hard to say what to trust in that situation to me.

Lol a couple days ago this forum was team “the upgrade ruined the GFS it can’t be trusted” now it’s team “GFS is king and euro can’t be trusted”. This is why I always like to see what wxman57 has to say when everyone is behind one solution just for devils advocate if nothing else. Either way, I think we would all like to see some run to run consensus across all models.

Trust not OP beyond day 5 . The only almost promise is that wxman57s dream of an 80F Christmas is likely not going to happen.