Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[SeGaBob]

Piece of a discussion from the NWS Office in Blacksburg,Virginia...

TEMPS MAY MODERATE A BIT BEFORE WHAT LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK ARRIVES NEAR THE END OF JANUARY
OR BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. WHAT`S INTERESTING ABOUT THESE SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR IS THAT THEY HAVE BEEN DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE PRESENCE
OF A HUGE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH AT TIMES HAS LINKED
ACROSS THE NORTH POLE AND INTO SIBERIA. TYPICALLY A WESTERN RIDGE
NEEDS TO BE PAIRED WITH A NEGATIVE NAO FOR COLD OUTBREAKS BACK
EAST. THIS STRONG ANTICYCLONE IS WHAT HAS FORCED DEEP ARCTIC GYRES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA A FEW TIMES THIS WINTER DESPITE AN
ABSENCE OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING NEAR GREENLAND. THE RIDGE HAS
BEEN SO ANOMALOUS THAT IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME A NEARLY
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE NAO...WHICH IS RATHER UNCOMMON.

[Ntxw]

Time for a fun post here! Lately I have noticed the January 1961 analog pop up especially on the CPC super ensemble.



500mb 1961



Temperatures



Definitely deep freeze for the eastern CONUS if that happened. Important key is the retrograding ridge and if it makes it to the pole and be strongest in Alaska/Beaufort Sea. If it doesn't and just fades then a lesser scenario will be likely but if it does, look out.

[Brent]

Wheeee



BMX said this last night:

TAKING A PEEK TOWARDS DAYS 8-10...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE POLAR VORTEX BEING DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LOWER 48. IT MAY BE HARD TO BELIEVE BUT THE
ASSOCIATED AIRMASS COULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER...AND WE WILL
DEFINITELY BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR IS DIRECTED
IN OUR DIRECTION.

[bella_may]

Wow...... Everything crossed!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-212245-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
435 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK AROUND
8 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE TILL MIDNIGHT FOR THE OPEN WATERS.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH
OF THE LAND AREAS TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM MCCOMB TO LAPLACE TO HOUMA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA.

FINALLY WITH MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS
MORNINGS COLD FRONT FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WOODVILLE TO HAMMOND TO SLIDELL. THIS INCLUDES
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. LOWS IN THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM 21 TO 25. WITH LOWS BELOW 26 AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR 6 TO 12 HOURS A HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD HAZARDOUS WAVE ACTION
FOR SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS...COINCIDENTAL WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE
ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FORECAST RANGING FROM DRY
WEATHER TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT
ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY TO
BELLE CHASSE...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

CAB

[Syx6sic]

2 to 4 inches expected here in norfolk va with winds up to 40mph with temps dropping down to 16 tonight was in the 60s yesterday lol

[Stormcenter]

From the NWS out of New Orleans, LA. concerning this upcoming possible weather event.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-230530-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-


.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD HAZARDOUS WAVE ACTION
FOR SMALL CRAFT THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

VERY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND BORDERING
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO AROUND 10
DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
COULD DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COINCIDENTAL WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES. WINTRY WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM AND ANY
POTENTIAL SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

[northjaxpro]

Folks, check out the 12Z EURO run out 6 days from now (144 hr). I posted on the Florida Weather thread the 0Z GFS run, which is similar to the 12Z EURO, but a bit farther offshore with a deepening Low. Models are beginning to latch onto the idea of an active southern stream and develop a possible winter storm just off the SE U.S. coast by the middle of next week. If this solution verifies, we may be looking at quite an interesting scenario, even as far south as my neck of the woods with a snow event.

Very interesting indeed. Cold, arctic air will be in place across the Deep South during this time next week, so if the models keep trending this way the next few days, could be a rare event shaping up. So much will depend on where the baroclinic zone will be positioned as well during this period.

[Stormcenter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION.
DEVELOPING PRECIP ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR...WITH LIGHT RAIN
BEING REPORTED AT A FEW AWOS SITES IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. WINTRY
MIX HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED JUST NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA...WITH SNOW
BEING REPORTED AT A FEW SITES IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

LOCALLY...CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
MOST PLACES...BUT SHOULD START FALLING SOON. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
SITTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST PLACES...AND THESE TOO WILL
BEGIN DROPPING SOON AS DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ARE LOCATED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE IN FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. COMPLEX
FORECAST WHICH WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING OF DRY AIR AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. 12Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF FORECAST...AND WITH AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MANY MODELS THAT THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ACTUAL ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE EAST...WILL BE EXTENDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EASTWARD TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR AS A PRECAUTION. THIS WILL ADD ST.
HELENA...LIVINGSTON...TANGIPAHOA AND ASCENSION PARISHES IN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND AMITE AND PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. BEST CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE GENERALLY NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA...BUT DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND ADD AT LEAST A MENTION OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATION EASTWARD TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR.

CURRENTLY...RADAR INDICATED WINTRY PRECIP IS SNEAKING SOUTH OF
ALEXANDRIA...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN
AS EARLY AS THE 6P-9P TIME FRAME FOR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. BASED ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL OR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW BY MIDNIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR. THIS COMES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT WE ARE STILL CARRYING A MAXIMUM OF 40 PERCENT POPS...
SO THERE IS STILL A DECENT PROBABILITY THAT NOTHING WILL HAPPEN.
FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH...AM CARRYING A MENTION OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX
BY EARLY MORNING...BUT EVEN IF PRECIP OCCURS...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SAID...ANY WINTRY PRECIP THAT DOES MANAGE TO
STICK TO THE GROUND...WILL NOT BE MELTING QUICKLY. HAVE THUS
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM TO COVER THE
MORNING COMMUTE AS ANY WINTRY PRECIP THAT STICKS COULD RESULT IN A
FEW ICY PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.

WINTRY PRECIP ISN`T THE ONLY HAZARD WE WILL BE DEALING WITH IN THE
FIRST PERIOD EITHER...ALSO EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S SOUTH. HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE RESPECTIVE AREAS TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO DANGEROUS LEVELS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...WHERE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LOW WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

AND NOW WE MOVE IN TO TOMORROW...

EXPECT A COLD DAY TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
LOWER 40S AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE AREA AND
CLOUDS PREVENT SUNSHINE FROM WARMING US UP. MODELS ALSO A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND PRECIP TOMORROW...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UP SLIGHTLY. GOOD NEWS IS THAT BEST CHANCES...AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS...WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS LIQUID
RAIN.

NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT GFS AND ECM ARE MUCH LESS CONVINCED OF THIS
POSSIBILITY. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY INTO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND CHANCE RANGE FOR GULF
WATERS. GOOD NEWS AGAIN IS THAT HIGHEST POPS OCCUR WHEN TEMPS ARE
STILL ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
FORECAST CLOSELY...HOWEVER...IN CASE OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO TREND
TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM.

.LONG TERM...
ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED.
WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AS BOTH THE SURFACE HIGH AND
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE TROUGH ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES AND THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RIVAL THE TEMPERATURES OF THE
EARLY JANUARY COLD SNAP...ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY
CARRYING UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. COLD AIR LOOKS TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEYOND
THAT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THIS AIR MASS COULD
BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD.

&&

[Jag95]

It looks like all of the models have us on the very eastern edge of the precip, with the cold and dry air advection keeping it suppressed to the south. Not knowing any better it and looking to the west you'd think we had a better chance of at least seeing a few flakes. It's been a long time since we've had snow in Mobile. There were some flurries a few years ago, but nothing that stuck to the ground since the mid 90s.

There's some pretty good radar echos up around Greenwood and west central MS all the way back through northern LA. It might not be reaching the ground the further east you go, but this is looking a little more interesting.

[SeGaBob]

Interesting NWS discussion for my area...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN EAST COAST TROUGH...AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE 00Z/24 ECMWF IS INDICATING A
STRONGER AND CLOSER LOW TO THE AREA ALONG WITH DECENT QPF AND
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS. THUS...SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE GEORGIA COAST IN THIS SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE 00Z/24 GFS IS DRIER BUT DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BIT OF FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY INLAND FROM THE GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST WE FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION WITH MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW NEAR THE
CENTRAL SC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME BUT FOLKS ARE URGED TO STAY
TUNED AS THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK WILL SEE DRIER/MILDER
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH TEMPS LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL.

[northjaxpro]

The latest 12Z 156 hour EURO run shows a potential Deep South snow event from Eastern Texas east along the Gulf Coast and across extreme North Florida, Southeastern Georgia and up into the Carolinas.

The EURO has shown similar solutions now for the past 24-36 hours! CMC and GEM is also showing similar solutions for this period. The GFS is quicker and less robust with moisture for right now. But, needless to say, if the models continue to come in line with this potential event, next Tuesday into Wednesday looks extremely interesting.

[SeGaBob]

The latest 12Z 156 hour EURO run shows a potential Deep South snow event from Eastern Texas east along the Gulf Coast and across extreme North Florida, Southeastern Georgia and up into the Carolinas.

The EURO has shown similar solutions now for the past 24-36 hours! CMC and GEM is also showing similar solutions for this period. The GFS is quicker and less robust with moisture for right now. But, needless to say, if the models continue to come in line with this potential event, next Tuesday into Wednesday looks extremely interesting.

I'm rooting for the EURO then... we haven't got any snow since 2010 and that was the only time in my life that I've seen it accumulate...(3 inches)

[BigB0882]

Is the Euro hugging the extreme coast for Louisiana like the GFS or does it send it further inland so areas along I10 get in on the action?

[northjaxpro]

I am short on timen at work currently. I will post the 12Z EURO later, but the run showed light accumulations (1-2 inches) across SE TX and inland from the LA coast. It also depicts 1-2 inches across extreme North Florida along and north of I-10 corridor from Tallahassee -Jacksonville. But, the significant accumulations EURO is showing on this run occurs across extreme SE GA northeast to along the SE Atlantic coast through the Carolinas. EURO in fact on this run was showing 6"+ along areas inland to along the coastal regions of the Carolinas. Just the 12Z EURO run, but EURO is showing a potential big winter storm to intensify just off and right along the SE U.S. Coast Tuesday- Wednesday period.

[MississippiWx]

Our current system has been quite the over-achiever! It has snowed off and on here in Hattiesburg since 8:00PM last night! We even had heavy snow for 15-20 minutes and collected a very quick half-inch. This has been a fun system. Northjaxpro, does the Euro look like the CMC when it comes to amounts of snow from Texas eastward? The Euro looks frigid here, btw. -18C at 850mb! Wow!

[rsvh2000]

Columbia, SC discussion....

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW MID WEEK.

YESTERDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WERE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE
ECMWF BEING A BIT STRONGER AND GIVING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
GFS. 24/00Z RUNS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND 12Z RUNS SHOW
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION JUST REACHING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. ECMWF IS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST QUICKER THAN
THE GFS DUE TO A MORE OPEN TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE EAST COMPARED
TO THE GFS SHOWING A BIT MORE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

THERMAL PROFILES DURING THE EVENT PERIOD ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT THE
QUESTION WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES OF THE MODELS AND THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND ITS EXACT LOCATION OF THE COASTAL FRONT AND
LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL BE HESITANT TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS
AT THIS TIME. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT.

OTHER THAN THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE EXTENDED
WILL BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (15-30 DEGREES)
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS LIKELY
TO BE IN THE 30S ON TUE/WED AND PUSHING INTO THE 40S BY THUR/FRI
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

[timmeister]

Our current system has been quite the over-achiever! It has snowed off and on here in Hattiesburg since 8:00PM last night! We even had heavy snow for 15-20 minutes and collected a very quick half-inch. This has been a fun system. Northjaxpro, does the Euro look like the CMC when it comes to amounts of snow from Texas eastward? The Euro looks frigid here, btw. -18C at 850mb! Wow!

I'm in Oak Grove and we had light snow last night, and sleet/flurries most of the morning (no accumulation). We ate lunch at Sakura's at 1:00 and there were flurries when we got there and a few flurries when we left. And you're right, it's a bone chillin' cold! The temp at our house is 29 and dropping.

If the CMC-GDPS model forecast below holds up, looks like Hattiesburg and most of the Deep South will get more snow on Wednesday next week. The NWS-JAN is predicting a 20% chance of snow for Hattiesburg on Tuesday night.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Man, during cane season I usually don't give the cmc a second glance but oh how I wish it would come to fruition next week. How did it do for our current storm? More aggressive, more/less precip, temps?

[Jag95]

It's sleeting here in Mobile and has been off and on all day. Currently it's on. I'm hoping to see some flurries mix in before it shuts off in a few hours. There may have been a few very light ones earlier.

[MGC]

Some light sleet mixing in with the rain this afternoon here on the Mississippi Coast. This morning, my car was covered in ice and sleet pellets. Temp is down to 32 at the Gulfport/Biloxi airport....MGC