Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Jarodm12]

NTXW!!! So brother what's the chances this storm ends up being a major winter storm for southern Oklahoma and northern Texas? I'm getting excited my temps in Durant are marginal at 33 degrees but with that heavy of precip it's most likely sleet right?

[Captmorg70]

Isn’t it too warm at the 850mb level for that to be sleet on the NAM?

[Ntxw]

NTXW!!! So brother what's the chances this storm ends up being a major winter storm for southern Oklahoma and northern Texas? I'm getting excited my temps in Durant are marginal at 33 degrees but with that heavy of precip it's most likely sleet right?

1/4 shot I'd say at this time for us. I'd watch 850s and how much they get pulled in by the ULL. I don't think the surface will be terribly cold for a true ice event though we're relying on upper dynamics.

Isn’t it too warm at the 850mb level for that to be sleet on the NAM?

Seems a little warm, I don't know what the algorithm tropical tidbits has for it. Profiles on the NAM supports a cold rain if looking at skewT. Stranger things have happened especially when you get a heavy thunderstorm inside cold dynamics. Lets see what the Globals say here in the next two hours.

[Captmorg70]

I agree. Will be interesting to watch. The Nam has been slowly trending colder. We are still 60+ hours out from event. Still time to watch for last minute trends

[Ralph's Weather]

Trends continue in the right direction. Models have followed the same biases that we have come to expect. No reason at all to change my original thoughts on this storm of a mix transitioning to snow west of DFW. For DFW proper still expecting a change to snow before it ends, but no accumulations expected.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS and CMC stays similar to earlier runs

[JayDT]

0z GFS and CMC stays similar to earlier runs

Hopefully they’ll trend more towards the NAM tomorrow

[Brent]

Euro has a little snow in Wichita Falls again, slightly better than last run, also a little snow just across the border in Oklahoma north of DFW

oh and the end of the run has another Oklahoma snowstorm that is a close call along the Red River next Friday after more widespread rain

Meanwhile the 6z NAM has a foot of snow in Wichita Falls and Southern Oklahoma on the clown map lol with still a sharp cutoff just as it gets close to DFW

[gpsnowman]

Looks like another freeze this morning, currently 32 at DFW. Makes it 8 for the season I believe.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty big temp bust over night/this morning. Currently 21.

[Ralph's Weather]

27 this morning. All models continue to trend colder. Friday may end up struggling to stay above 40 during the afternoon and Saturday could well stay in the 30s all day.

[orangeblood]

Hmmmmmmm, Very Interesting!!!

[Ntxw]

12z NAM dumps a ton of snow in NW Texas including WF. DFW ends the run with a little backside snow. It's the coldest run yet. Much of it is the ULL pulling 850s down by the upper dynamics of trowal.

We just need this storm to kick out a little further south and really drag down the cold.

[Jarodm12]

Pretty freaking powerful trowal on the NAM time to get out the winter gear !

[orangeblood]

12z NAM dumps a ton of snow in NW Texas including WF. DFW ends the run with a little backside on the run. It's the coldest run yet. Much of it is the ULL pulling 850s down by the upper dynamics of trowal.

Yep, plenty cold enough at 850 on this run

[Ntxw]

12z NAM dumps a ton of snow in NW Texas including WF. DFW ends the run with a little backside on the run. It's the coldest run yet. Much of it is the ULL pulling 850s down by the upper dynamics of trowal.

Yep, plenty cold enough at 850 on this run

850s in W and NTX are colder than Oklahoma on that run showing strong cold pocket of the ULL in the deformation band.

[Ralph's Weather]

Extrapolated (caution lol) the NAM looks incredible beyond 84 hours.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like another freeze this morning, currently 32 at DFW. Makes it 8 for the season I believe.

Looks like the airport got down to 31, surprising how many low bust we seen during this stretch.

[orangeblood]

12z NAM dumps a ton of snow in NW Texas including WF. DFW ends the run with a little backside on the run. It's the coldest run yet. Much of it is the ULL pulling 850s down by the upper dynamics of trowal.

Yep, plenty cold enough at 850 on this run

850s in W and NTX are colder than Oklahoma on that run showing strong cold pocket of the ULL in the deformation band.

And notice barely a flake in Kansas when Global Ops even most ensembles were hammering Kansas just a few days ago

[Jarodm12]

Just to add the 6z RGEM came in colder than the NAM so even the NAM is not the coldest guidance , 12z is coming in now!