Texas Winter 2016-2017

[CaptinCrunch]

We need more rain


Tuesday will be very warm , dry and breezy with afternoon highs in the 80s. Southwest to west winds in the 15 to 25 mph range along with some gusts to 30 mph will increase the fire weather threat across all of North and Central Texas. Locations along and west of a line from Bowie to Granbury to Lampasas will see the highest threat. Therefore a fire weather watch is in effect Tuesday afternoon.

[JDawg512]

I'm working on the rain as best I can but we are gonna have to wait till the last half of the month, 14/15 and beyond before we see any significant amounts.

[wxman57]

It's not looking too rainy across Texas over the coming week. Now if the 12z GFS is right about the system on the 14th/15th, we MAY get some significant rainfall. However, that's a big "if" as far as the GFS being right that far out (with the rain and/or the cold). It's tended to be too cold and too wet in its longer-range forecasts.

[Portastorm]

It's not looking too rainy across Texas over the coming week. Now if the 12z GFS is right about the system on the 14th/15th, we MAY get some significant rainfall. However, that's a big "if" as far as the GFS being right that far out (with the rain and/or the cold). It's tended to be too cold and too wet in its longer-range forecasts.

Actually the European has also consistently shown ample rainfall over the next 10 days in Texas. The 12z Euro run appears to be a little wetter than the 12z GFS in fact. The Euro shows 2-3" across a large swath of central and east Texas while the heaviest area of precip per the 12z GFS appears more to mirror the I-35 corridor in slightly lesser amounts.

[Ntxw]

Global patterns support a heavy rain event down the line. Tropical forcing (related to MJO) will link to our region, this is indicative of a Nino like pattern. Subsidence of the maritime continent and IO favoring rising air over the Americas and eastern Pacific. PWATS will be substantially high for the time of year.

[WeatherGuesser]

Seeing a strong signal via the extended guidance for a potentially significant storm system around the mid February timeframe. That tends to coincide with the MJO and CCKW propagation across the Pacific lending to fairly good model agreement among the Global deterministic guidance. Watch the Eastern Pacific moisture plume in the days ahead as a potent upper low develops over Arizona/Northern Mexico later this weekend and slowly moves East across Texas around February 14th/15th.

Pretty good model agreement on this for it being 8 to 10 days out but that is what a strong MJO/CCKW signal can do. The MJO Phase 7 - 8 propagation matches up nicely with lower heights swinging from the SW to the EC with a +PNA spike as a system kicks out. I guess one of the advantages of the system at the end of this week being only a glancing blow of cool air is that it doesn't scour the western Gulf of moisture. So the combo of Gulf moisture and Pacific moisture sets things up for being pretty wet across Texas with the system you are talking about.

So, does that mean it might rain somewhere?

You guys have to remember there are an awful lot of plain Janes and Joes reading these threads that have no idea what all that means.

[Ntxw]

So, does that mean it might rain somewhere?

You guys have to remember there are an awful lot of plain Janes and Joes reading these threads that have no idea what all that means.

Hard to pinpoint systems that have yet to really exist or definitive. Large hemispheric patterns as such increase the likelihood of above normal precipitation for locales east of the divide and along/south of the Ohio River. Generality eastern conus increases qpf with high correlation in the southern plains to mid south.

[1900hurricane]

Overall ensemble means looks pretty good for someone getting some decent rain beginning in about a week from now. Lots of members have some good looking troughs. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS means all show N MX/SW CONUS troughs or closed lows.

[bubba hotep]

That is a 2015ing signal lol

[Ntxw]

That is a 2015ing signal lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

Fingers crossed we can time and thread the needle with one of the systems like late Feb/March 2015! January and Feb rainfall wise is looking like it. CFSv2 has been growing in bullishness with possible Nino, upper weak/moderate level with some members going strong. I have to emphasize though skill at this range for that is extremely low and just for curiosity. +PDO supports.

AO still looking pretty good past mid month, PNA though not ideal, the next best thing to slightly negative is strong cluster of falling PNA

[bubba hotep]

That is a 2015ing signal lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

Fingers crossed we can time and thread the needle with one of the systems like late Feb/March 2015! January and Feb rainfall wise is looking like it. CFSv2 has been growing in bullishness with possible Nino, upper weak/level with some members going strong. I have to emphasize though skill at this range for that is extremely low and just for curiosity. +PDO supports.

I haven't totally given up on winter and wouldn't be surprised to see it make one last push towards the end of Feb or early March. As far as the future, N. Texas does much better during weaker Ninos as evidence by '09/10. The QBO flip should work to keep any Nino in check and things are looking pretty good for next winter if we end up weaker +ENSO, +PDO, -QBO. Also, the Klotzbach & Gray index has the AMO negative again, warming ENSO, +PDO, -AMO is a strong wet spring signal for Texas.

[Ntxw]

That is a 2015ing signal lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_40.png

Fingers crossed we can time and thread the needle with one of the systems like late Feb/March 2015! January and Feb rainfall wise is looking like it. CFSv2 has been growing in bullishness with possible Nino, upper weak/level with some members going strong. I have to emphasize though skill at this range for that is extremely low and just for curiosity. +PDO supports.

I haven't totally given up on winter and wouldn't be surprised to see it make one last push towards the end of Feb or early March. As far as the future, N. Texas does much better during weaker Ninos as evidence by '09/10. The QBO flip should work to keep any Nino in check and things are looking pretty good for next winter if we end up weaker +ENSO, +PDO, -QBO. Also, the Klotzbach & Gray index has the AMO negative again, warming ENSO, +PDO, -AMO is a strong wet spring signal for Texas.

Using ONI, the " goldilocks just right" Nino value is moderate Nino 1C to 1.4C range. 1963/1964, 2002/2003, 2009/2010 were in this range. 1976/1977 and 1977/1978 peaked at +0.8C which is just upper end weak.

[bubba hotep]

This came up earlier today and I said that I thought that DFW needed 10 more days but, actually, the record is 10

 https://twitter.com/wxmanvic/status/828811076552814593

[Brent]

It is entirely too warm tonight. Hard to believe a month ago snow was on the ground.

and yeah, I found it hard to believe this many 80s was "normal". I've looked at a lot of winter climo.

0z GFS quite wet early next week, and then much colder end of next week, even a light freeze appears at DFW around day 10.

Euro is much cooler next week but no freezes through day 10. Stays quite unsettled next week to the end of the run after approaching 90 on Saturday.

[Ntxw]

What a complete reversal of the winter AO. SSW has proven it's skill to flip the AO and it did take till the second week of Feb from mid Jan to work down from the stratosphere. May get a monster storm passing some point coming out of Texas and bombing over the northeast US. Nor'easter anyone? Timed well with the MJO passage for moisture.

[bubba hotep]

What a complete reversal of the winter AO. SSW has proven it's skill to flip the AO and it did take till the second week of Feb from mid Jan to work down from the stratosphere. May get a monster storm passing some point coming out of Texas and bombing over the northeast US. Nor'easter anyone? Timed well with the MJO passage for moisture.

https://i.imgsafe.org/9d3a86884a.jpg
https://i.imgsafe.org/9d3c73ec45.jpg

That is encouraging that the AO might actually go negative but it is hard to say what the late winter impacts will be for N. Texas. The MJO can drive a -AO but the relationship isn't as established as that to modulating the PNA. The Phase 6 - 8 propagation can drive +PNA and also has been shown to drive -AO. I don't know a whole lot about SSW but have seen it discussed in some MJO and QBO papers that I have read and the current MJO cycle plus +QBO would tend to favor SSW followed by a vortex split vs vortex displacement.

[Ntxw]

That is encouraging that the AO might actually go negative but it is hard to say what the late winter impacts will be for N. Texas. The MJO can drive a -AO but the relationship isn't as established as that to modulating the PNA. The Phase 6 - 8 propagation can drive +PNA and also has been shown to drive -AO. I don't know a whole lot about SSW but have seen it discussed in some MJO and QBO papers that I have read and the current MJO cycle plus +QBO would tend to favor SSW followed by a vortex split vs vortex displacement.

We've gotten about as much as the stratwarm can do for us which is get the AO negative. Split or displacement doesn't really matter at this point once the tropospheric blocking is affected, split just helps us last it through March. To begin with, the initiator for this SSW was the massive Aleutian low (Nino like pattern MJO related?) in mid January bringing heat flux to the high latitudes and attacking the stratosphere. To me, it's all a simultaneous series of events. Polar heights descend into the middle latitudes of North America eventually. The Pacific as usual does what it wants to do and we need it to play nice. I'm encouraged the PNA is forecast to dive from peaking.

[Portastorm]

I haven't totally given up on winter and wouldn't be surprised to see it make one last push towards the end of Feb or early March. As far as the future, N. Texas does much better during weaker Ninos as evidence by '09/10. The QBO flip should work to keep any Nino in check and things are looking pretty good for next winter if we end up weaker +ENSO, +PDO, -QBO. Also, the Klotzbach & Gray index has the AMO negative again, warming ENSO, +PDO, -AMO is a strong wet spring signal for Texas.

Next winter? Next winter??! Bwahahahaaa ... I'll tell you what next winter will bring. Warmth. No snow for anyone south of Waco. It's the new normal, get used to it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This potential storm for next week looks very interesting. If we could get some cold air attached with it... Looks like it will be a big wind event too.

[Ntxw]

Look like the models are latching on to Valentines and the days after for signature storm. -AO supports southern track and with a partial phase I would watch this system very closely. It will bring copious amounts of rain at the very least for the state.