Texas Winter 2012-2013

[somethingfunny]

I thought we were discussing the early March storm.

No, the system is moving into the Pac NW as we speak it will be at our doorstep in 48-72 hours

http://i46.tinypic.com/16biszn.gif

Wow! We're practically into NAM range already.

I'm going to share a few images now, but don't think that they necessarily represent my prediction for this one.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT US IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND CUT OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK INTO TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ALMOST
ALL OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTION INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TREK EAST CLOSE TO THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDOR ACROSS
TEXAS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS POSE A FORECAST PROBLEM. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN ALL RAIN. BELIEVE THAT FOR NOW THE
BEST THING TO DO IS TO DO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GEM AND
THE GFS...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE FORMER THAN THE LATTER. THUS
HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTIONING IT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST YET.

[iorange55]

Admittedly, I am just catching up, but the trend from the CMC and Euro leads me to believe that this is going to surprise a lot of people. Have a feeling a lot of the local weather people will be playing catch up right along with me.

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting developments overnight as the trends are becoming a bit more clear that a Major Winter Storm will develop well S into Texas/Oklahoma. NWS OKC is now mentioning a Blizzard Watch upgrade form the Winter Storm Watch they have already hoisted. Also of note is now NWS Dallas/Ft Worth is seeing the trends on the non American guidance and is now mentioning a rain changing to snow in their forecast. They have noted that the snow may have to be shifted further S. The Euro/Canadian/UKmet solutions are pointing to a potential low track along and even slightly S of I-20 which may bring rain ending as snow/sleet even further S into Central Texas on E into the Northern areas of SE Texas/Louisiana/Arkansas before this storm shifts E and gets out of our hair on Tuesday. Also the 06Z GFS has come in much further S with the storm track and further adds credibility to the potential.

Further S on Sunday ahead of the storm system, rain and elevated storm chances are increasing for late Sunday into Monday. Also of note the trends are coming together that suggest freezing temps may well extent well S into S Central and SE Texas as we end February and begin March.

Those that had forecasted that Winter was over may well be eating crow with those Spring Warmth forecast of 2 weeks ago. It always seems we have a strong cold snap when the Rodeo comes to Houston, doesn't it...

[Portastorm]

Some interesting developments overnight as the trends are becoming a bit more clear that a Major Winter Storm will develop well S into Texas/Oklahoma. NWS OKC is now mentioning a Blizzard Watch upgrade form the Winter Storm Watch they have already hoisted. Also of note is now NWS Dallas/Ft Worth is seeing the trends on the non American guidance and is now mentioning a rain changing to snow in their forecast. They have noted that the snow may have to be shifted further S. The Euro/Canadian/UKmet solutions are pointing to a potential low track along and even slightly S of I-20 which may bring rain ending as snow/sleet even further S into Central Texas on E into the Northern areas of SE Texas/Louisiana/Arkansas before this storm shifts E and gets out of our hair on Tuesday. Also the 06Z GFS has come in much further S with the storm track and further adds credibility to the potential.

Further S on Sunday ahead of the storm system, rain and elevated storm chances are increasing for late Sunday into Monday. Also of note the trends are coming together that suggest freezing temps may well extent well S into S Central and SE Texas as we end February and begin March.

Those that had forecasted that Winter was over may well be eating crow with those Spring Warmth forecast of 2 weeks ago. It always seems we have a strong cold snap when the Rodeo comes to Houston, doesn't it...

The venerable srainhoutx speaks! Ah yes indeed, the overnight guidance ought to certainly keep the discussion going here. The trends from the CMC and Euro, as well as from our British friend the UKMET, are further south and colder. The 6z GFS appears to be catching on.

I think you Metroplexers are in for a winter weather event early next week!

[Portastorm]

In terms of NWS forecast offices in Texas who are "on the ball" with what lies ahead, I'm going to offer kudos to the Dallas/Fort Worth, Lubbock, and San Angelo offices. Both have picked up on the non-US model trends for early next week and even San Angelo caught the 6z GFS changes. Good work! Unfortunately my local Austin/San Antonio office appears to be "behind the curve" as they make no mention of the Euro/Ukie/CMC model trends, hugging the 0z GFS all the way.

Even the non-Texas office of Shreveport references a "cold blast" for late in the period. The Shreveport folks do forecasts for our Storm2K Texas members in the northeast corner of the state.

And a toast of Grey Goose to you guys who were on here in the early hours of today, discussing the trends of the 0z model runs. I think we will have a LOT to talk about over the next 5-7 days!

[weatherguy425]

While it's the NAM, I'm a bit surprised that the model has shifted its heaviest precip axis much further north, into Kansas.

[wxman57]

Here's the 00Z Euro 24hr snow accumulation map (in mm liquid) valid 3am Mon to 3am Tue. Bullseye now on the OK/KS border. 4-6" down to the Red River. Light snow reaching just about to Dallas-Ft. Worth.

[gboudx]

^ consistent with the more southern route. Wasn't the bullseye in mid-Kansas yesterday?

[wxman57]

^ consistent with the more southern route. Wasn't the bullseye in mid-Kansas yesterday?

Yes. I'm having great difficulty in nudging the Earth closer to the Sun presently...

[Ntxw]

^ consistent with the more southern route. Wasn't the bullseye in mid-Kansas yesterday?

Not only was it in Kansas, it had very little if any for Oklahoma and definitely nothing for Texas.

Two things to note from the models. First is this thing is forecasted by guidance to be a slow mover since it is cutoff. Parts of Oklahoma verbatim are lashed by blizzard conditions for 10+ hours on some models. Second as mentioned with the first, winds will be an issue even for those who don't get snow behind this low.

[Tireman4]

^ consistent with the more southern route. Wasn't the bullseye in mid-Kansas yesterday?

Yes. I'm having great difficulty in nudging the Earth closer to the Sun presently...

Your powers grow weaker as the air continues to be colder...(evil laugh) ha ha ha...

[gboudx]

^ consistent with the more southern route. Wasn't the bullseye in mid-Kansas yesterday?

Yes. I'm having great difficulty in nudging the Earth closer to the Sun presently...

Your powers grow weaker as the air continues to be colder...(evil laugh) ha ha ha...

GAH!! Don't poke the bear!

[Ntxw]

You folks along the Red River should keep an eye out for stray flurry or two today. Little disturbance was supposed to come dry but there is radar returns.

[Ntxw]

CMC and Ukmet went a little further north, aren't as happy with coastal low development and tracks the surface low across the Red River

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

^ consistent with the more southern route. Wasn't the bullseye in mid-Kansas yesterday?

Yes. I'm having great difficulty in nudging the Earth closer to the Sun presently...

Your problem is, I am bigger than you and I am trying to bump it further away.

[iorange55]

I think I should stay off the board 'till the snow is actually falling. Every time I open the mouth, the models start to go backwards.

Just one run, though! It does seem like the GFS 12z went a little further south than its previous runs.

[Ntxw]

I think I should stay off the board 'till the snow is actually falling. Every time I open the mouth, the models start to go backwards.

Just one run, though! It does seem like the GFS 12z went a little further south than its previous runs.

A little this way or a little that way could mean snow or no since we always seem to be on the edge, the shifts aren't that huge really in the grand scheme. I just want to see a coastal low form that way we can get more moisture into the cold air.

[dhweather]

I'm not expecting any wintry precip Sunday or Monday. I doubt we see much precip at all, there's just no moisture to work with. There's a reason it's so rare to get snow this far south, so many things have to be just right for it to happen.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Appears we may get a little snow possibly north of Wichita Falls, along the river out of this one. I'm not going to get excited just yet because it seems there have been quite a few let downs in texas this winter.

[Portastorm]

Are you kidding me? None of you guys in the Metroplex had any comments about the 12z Euro run?!

Meh ... maybe everyone is outside today enjoying the beautiful sunshine and mild temperatures.