Texas Winter 2025-2026

[WacoWx]

Dumb question, but has the Low reached its furthest southerly position and begun its ejection NE?

[rwfromkansas]

About half my class is gone. Absences are getting bigger as the day goes on, despite it not really being that cold yet. I'm down to 38, but I have seen enough of these to know it's will basically stall around 33 or 34 for a few hours.

[mmmmsnouts]

Patiently waiting until just before it reaches freezing to salt down my driveway so it doesn’t wash away.

[Ntxw]

Dumb question, but has the Low reached its furthest southerly position and begun its ejection NE?

Some more hours of digging. 6z to 12z is furthest point on most of the models starts NE turn after that which is tomorrow morning.

[dhweather]

I'm getting the feeling that the wintry precip forecast for Rockwall County is going to be a pretty profound bust.

[wxman22]

It begins!

[TomballEd]

My Houston area ISD (HISD is not the only school district partially or mostly within city limits) has already cancelled Monday, which means I can have a few beers watching the afternoon-evening conference championship game.

Local zone forecast has two periods with 'rain of freezing rain' possible but each has less than a tenth. HRRR shows a tight gradient between no ice at all and a quarter inch around Houston.

Now that I don't work Monday its fine if we just get a cold rain. If the ice threat for Sunday morning continues, I may do church Saturday evening.

[bubba hotep]

20z HRRR has Denton at 43F at 21z, actual 37F, Decatur at 40F vs. actual 36F, The Falls at 34F vs actual 30F, etc. etc.

Also, freezing line continues to push down I-35 and should move through Ardmore, OK, here shortly.

[iorange55]

I'm getting the feeling that the wintry precip forecast for Rockwall County is going to be a pretty profound bust.

Why do you say that?

[Ntxw]

I'm getting the feeling that the wintry precip forecast for Rockwall County is going to be a pretty profound bust.

Why do you say that?

Easier to deal with when you expect it. Just in case.

[orangeblood]

20z HRRR has Denton at 43F at 21z, actual 37F, Decatur at 40F vs. actual 36F, The Falls at 34F vs actual 30F, etc. etc.

Also, freezing line continues to push down I-35 and should move through Ardmore, OK, here shortly.

They almost never initialize correctly, always playing catch up. Most everything seems to be 2-3 hours ahead of schedule

[bubba hotep]

18z 3K NAM continues the theme of a lot of QPF falling into cold air over a really large area.

[gboudx]

I live in Rockwall county and always expect it to not work out as expected. I've learned to live in a mindset of believing it when I see it. Snownado's stubborn warm nose has burned us too many times.

[bubba hotep]

Fort Worth is down to 39F, which is 4 or 5 hours ahead of the hi-res models. Cold air is really pouring in much quicker than forecast.

[Snowman67]

Fort Worth is down to 39F, which is 4 or 5 hours ahead of the hi-res models. Cold air is really pouring in much quicker than forecast.

Seems like this happens more times than not with these shallow cold air masses. Models have a really tough time with them.

[WeatherNewbie]

I'm getting the feeling that the wintry precip forecast for Rockwall County is going to be a pretty profound bust.

Why do you say that?

unfounded pessimism...

[CaptinCrunch]

20z HRRR has Denton at 43F at 21z, actual 37F, Decatur at 40F vs. actual 36F, The Falls at 34F vs actual 30F, etc. etc.

Also, freezing line continues to push down I-35 and should move through Ardmore, OK, here shortly.

They almost never initialize correctly, always playing catch up. Most everything seems to be 2-3 hours ahead of schedule

Faster frontal passages usually happen in these type of events. I would start to look at faster transitions and the possibility higher amounts

[HockeyTx82]

I've picked up .23" of rain so far.

I'm down to 36F

[dhweather]

I'm getting the feeling that the wintry precip forecast for Rockwall County is going to be a pretty profound bust.

Why do you say that?

Still in the mid 40's right now. FWD has scaled back from 4-6" down to 1-3" at best. Just a gut feeling, trends aren't looking good. I'm thankful for the rain though, we're significantly behind in that category.

[iorange55]

I'm getting the feeling that the wintry precip forecast for Rockwall County is going to be a pretty profound bust.

Why do you say that?

Still in the mid 40's right now. FWD has scaled back from 4-6" down to 1-3" at best. Just a gut feeling, trends aren't looking good. I'm thankful for the rain though, we're significantly behind in that category.

I think you were supposed to be in the mid-40s right now. Trends are great for wintry precip, perhaps not for snow, but this hasn't looked like a snow storm for your area for a few days now.