Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

:uarrow: His highness is awake from a late winter's nap.

I've been struggling with the bitter cold across SE Texas of late. Highs only in the 60s is way too cold! Dreaming of the nice warm days of July. Don't like what I see in the models at all. Need at least 1 warm day in February to win our contest. Need a morning low of 67 or higher on one day. And while I don't believe yesterday's 18Z GFS at all, I don't like the persistent east U.S. trof which could bring some cold air to Texas in early March. Maybe even close to freezing here in Houston again. Time to nudge the Earth closer to the Sun again...

[Texas Snowman]

I guess you saw this too. Ryan Maue compares this to the '93 Super Storm. That brought a pretty good cold front into Texas if I remember correctly.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I noticed a similar type of storm from the GFS when saw it this morning but didnt want to compare it to the greatest winter storm in history. The connection is very possible with the live SJT we have. That storm would be huge though.


I remember that storm very well. The lows were in the mid 20's here in Houston with a crazy derecho line that went through ahead of it. The low was further west than this one is predicted to track as of now, so it may not pul down as much cool air as the '93 storm

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Well, regardless of what the long term forecast says, mark today down as one of the strangest weather days I can remember. In the past 3 hours, I have cycled through rain, sleet, rain, bright sunshine, strong winds, and now back to rain again. Quite bizarre.

[Ntxw]

Hey lets all give Porta a chance at redemption before we overthrow his rule by giving us snow and cold within the next 10 day period! He's led us to the promise land before and can do it again, just got lost a little this year.

March 93 is a tad too extreme, not seeing that but a broad trough with anomously deep heights east of the rockies are shown by ensembles. DFW does average snow every other year in March so we are overdue. As long as wxman57 isn't biking we're doing something right

I agree with the post about crazy weather, I have been pelted by rain/sleet all morning on and off between classes. What a raw day!

[dhweather]

973MB is impressive. Of course, it's >>>> 3-4 days out, so we'll see......

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: His highness is awake from a late winter's nap.

I've been struggling with the bitter cold across SE Texas of late. Highs only in the 60s is way too cold! Dreaming of the nice warm days of July. Don't like what I see in the models at all. Need at least 1 warm day in February to win our contest. Need a morning low of 67 or higher on one day. And while I don't believe yesterday's 18Z GFS at all, I don't like the persistent east U.S. trof which could bring some cold air to Texas in early March. Maybe even close to freezing here in Houston again. Time to nudge the Earth closer to the Sun again...

Oh great. You just had to wake him up. Just great. Now we will see freaking 100's all of August. Oh wait, he did that in 2011. Sigh....

[aggiecutter]

Moderate to heavy sleet in the Texarkana area for the past hour. Where is Mr. Winter Cancel at.

[arizona_sooner]

Two or three inches of snow on the ground in and around Tulsa... So far, this is the only accumulation of snow for the season.

I'm surprised - I thought we were going to be shut out this year.

But of course I am not there to enjoy it.

[vbhoutex]

Can't report anything except light rain occasionally and some stiff winds which are making the current 56f seem extremely cold. Really feels almost raw outside.

[wxman57]

Comparing the 12Z Euro & GFS 500mb pattern, both indicate a potent upper low passing across the TX Panhandle/OK next Monday. Euro indicates 8-12" snow from the OK Panhandle NE to eastern KS and SE Nebraska. Nothing south of the mid TX Panhandle, though. After that, it looks rather tranquil across Texas through 240hrs.

Here's the 12Z Euro 24hr snow forecast valid 18Z Sun to 18Z Mon. 500mb pattern is for 18Z Mon. Snow in mm liquid. 20MM = about 4/5 of an inch, or maybe 8" snow. Beyond that map time, EC has over 35mm of liquid across NE Kansas, That's maybe 14".

[Ntxw]

Ive seen a lot of people caught off guard wearing shorts and t shirts/thin clothes today. It has been hovering in the mid 40s with gusty east winds keeping the wind chill in the 30s since morning. System shock for many I bet.

[weatherdude1108]

Rather depressing day in the rain department, given we have had a 70% chance of rain/thunderstorms for today/tonight. It would be nice for the Pacific to warm/Atlantic to cool (That right?) so rain comes back. I could care less about cold right now. Cold without precipitation is not beneficial to anyone at this latitude at this point. Drought begets heat, begets drought, begets heat, begets drought...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH THIS FORECAST...WE HAVE OPTED TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ONLY CARRY A 20% OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE... INCREASING TO 70% FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. WE CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING LLANO...
BURNET...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS AND LEE COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH STRONG WINDS A
SECONDARY CONCERN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH THE
LATEST DATA AND WE GENERALLY EXPECT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TO POSSIBLY THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EAST OF
I-35/NORTH OF I-10. RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MOST
OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY. FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. A WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION...SIGNALING A WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS BY EARLY
MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. WE DID OPT TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) DRY.

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING TO BRING US STORMS AND A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT/THURSDAY IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT IS ALSO MOVING INTO ARIZONA...AND THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS QUITE A WAYS TO TRAVEL BEFORE ARRIVING IN NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...RAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A QUIET
EVENING. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND ALSO
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL MAINLY COME FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COOL SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. MUCH
LATER TONIGHT...LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT...A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PACIFIC FRONT AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST HI-RES
AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS NOW SLOWER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE OF STORMS...THUS MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS TOMORROW BASED ON THIS SLOWER TIMING. MOST SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT/LINE OF STORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER
AROUND 11Z/5 AM CST...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS WOULD PUT THE
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND MID MORNING AND THEN
MOVING OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY. WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MANY OF THE MODELS ON THIS SLOWER
TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE
SLIGHTLY LONGER TO ARRIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL OUT IN ARIZONA.

WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT SPREADING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASING...ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. LIKE
THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE EARLY STORMS COULD
ALSO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...IN PARTICULAR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WHERE MUCAPE WILL BE HIGHER AND LAPSE RATES STEEPER.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT IT NOT THAT GREAT AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXISTS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS DUE TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG /...STRONG WIND
SHEAR...AND BETTER LAPSE RATES. IN THIS PARTICULAR
ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...OR AROUND 6-7
AM...SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP SURFACE BASED CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THAT AREA AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE NAM
IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE BASED CAPE BUT THE SITUATION
BEARS A CLOSE WATCH AS SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL POSE A TORNADO
THREAT IN THIS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WILL HIGHLIGHT A LOW
TORNADO THREAT THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HAMILTON TO FAIRFIELD.

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE 60S AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO
SCOURED OUT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. WE WILL
BRIEFLY WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND DRIVES A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

82/JLD


There's very little precip in the FTW CWA, they don't expect much, yet they leave POPS up in the 60-70% range for late afternoon and early tonight? I don't get it??

[Ntxw]

There's very little precip in the FTW CWA, they don't expect much, yet they leave POPS up in the 60-70% range for late afternoon and early tonight? I don't get it??

That doesn't matter at this point. A line of heavy thunderstorms will move through the metroplex tonight and tomorrow morning as the ULL ejects into the south plains of the panhandle. The folks who should be complaining about no rain is Austin. They will get dry slotted yet again for umph time with the Austin omega block.

[dhweather]

There's very little precip in the FTW CWA, they don't expect much, yet they leave POPS up in the 60-70% range for late afternoon and early tonight? I don't get it??

That doesn't matter at this point. A line of heavy thunderstorms will move through the metroplex tonight and tomorrow morning as the ULL ejects into the south plains of the panhandle. The folks who should be complaining about no rain is Austin. They will get dry slotted yet again for umph time.

They've got POPS at 100 for tomorrow, which makes perfectly good sense. I think its cruel and unusual punishment to leave POPS up high when they don't really expect rain.


And for the Austin folks, my heart breaks for them. They continually get dry slotted, at least it seems. I had a friend of mine make a statement, and it's hard to argue with it at times:

"Texas weather - it makes you really wonder who God is mad at"


Dry slots, the CAP and positively tilted troughs. It leads to an expletive laced tirade!!!

[cycloneye]

What all may agree is this rain event will aliviate at least temporary the drought conditions.

[South Texas Storms]

The February weather pattern has sucked for SA and Austin. The heavy rain barely stays north of us and we hardly get anything. I'm happy that you folks in north Texas are getting heavy rainfall, but can you please share it with your friends down in central and south Texas?

[Jarodm12]

39 degree's here 36 up along the red river... hmmm

look at the 00z data at 9 hours and the RAP at 9 hours the mixed precip is getting awfully close to north texas. Powerful systems such as this tend to bring surprises.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-p ... E&hour=009

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

DFW dew point sits at 34, so wet bulb won't help. So dang close though.