Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

[double D]

The Noon Ensembles really, and I do mean really, dig the trough and keep it around Christmas week. Christmas week looks stormy and cold for Texas. BTW, the Ensembles jumped on this trough and have been consistent with it for the last 8 days. I wouldn't even bother looking at its operational runs until Thursday or Friday.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21812.html

That is a very good point aggiecutter. Basing a forecast on each operational run will make you go bananas. As the saying goes "trend is your friend".

[Stratosphere747]

I think that quote out of DFW tells you how little confidence that some of the forecasters have in what some of the models are spitting out.

Tough situation to be in, but no doubt they will have a better handle on things in a few days on the real possibilities...

[Brent]

Ouch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ouch.

It is going to be really funny if that map ends up dead wrong. Even Accuweather's own Joe Bastardi is calling for a white christmas being very possible all the way to I-35 and possibly beyond. At the very least I think a "slim" chance down into parts of north TX and central TX would have been a good idea in order to stay on the safe side at this point.

[Opal storm]

Ouch.

They could've just left it blank but they went ahead and put NO CHANCE in huge words.What a slap in the face to us southerners wanting some snow !

[rsdoug1981]

For those of us that are somewhat Texas ignorant (it may just be me), what area constitutes the I-35 corridor? I know the I-20 corridor and I-10 corridor very well.

[HarlequinBoy]

I wonder about the rest of the SE..

So far few forecasts over the rest of the SE seem to be trending towards wintry weather next week. At least not yet.

Little Rock hinted at a possible changeover to snow in northern Arkansas, but seemed iffy on if it would be cold enough. If it's not cold enough for snow in northern Arkansas, then usually it's not cold enough for snow southeast of there.

Of course, Texas isn't SE of there so that isn't really relevant I suppose.

Meh, right now I'm not expecting snow or ice, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some. At least it will be cooler though.. that's a good thing.

I think the bottom line right now is that this is interesting to watch. Nothing is set in stone at all and the forecasts will likely change a lot by the time this event rolls around. Whether it changes for more wintry weather or changes towards warmer/wetter weather we obviously don't know yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those of us that are somewhat Texas ignorant (it may just be me), what area constitutes the I-35 corridor? I know the I-20 corridor and I-10 corridor very well.

[southerngale]

I saved the map...just curious to see if the areas with NO chance actually have one. Not that I think the areas in NO CHANCE will see a White Christmas, but with some of the NWS offices in those areas mentioning it, you'd think AccuWx would at least put it in the SLIM category. Maybe they're just that confident...

[Stratosphere747]

Where is Jschlitz and the point he was trying to make...

I remember when a few folks were posting a somewhat similar tropical image and freaking out over who was going to get hit by a TC this year.

Might be time for AccuWx to re-evaluate some of those forecasting maps.

[rsdoug1981]

Thanks for the map, EWG. I'm hoping for the best for all of us. Here in the Jackson, MS area, no one including NWS has mentioned even the possibility of frozen precip; however, at this point, I think some wrap around flurries won't be out of the question per the models and New Orleans NWS discussion.

I keep having to check reality myself. It's a week away!

[jasons2k]

Two things stick out to me this PM. One is DFW's discussion posted by gboudx (along with the non-bolded part about upper features being 1,000 miles apart in 2 days).

The other gem is this from Corpus:

"W/ SUCH LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODELS SOLNS...THE HOLIDAY
FORECAST IS LITTLE MORE THAN A GUESSING GAME AT THIS POINT."

[Opal storm]

"W/ SUCH LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODELS SOLNS...THE HOLIDAY
FORECAST IS LITTLE MORE THAN A GUESSING GAME AT THIS POINT."

So true.It won't be until Thursday or Friday until we really know anything.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the NWS forecast looks way too warm for Christmas if the latest modeling verifies, however, it is still quite cold:

Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Christmas Day: Partly cloudy, with a high near 53.

We should see these forecast numbers drop by as much as 5 to 10-degrees though if the models still look ominous by the end of the week. For the time being though, this is a pretty good forecast (considering all the ?s that remain).

BTW: The latest AFD has still not come in for Houston...just the forecast numbers. Hopefully the AFD will be out soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is what the latest Houston AFD is saying:

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE OVER SE TX BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWED IN THE LAST FEW MODELS RUNS. THE LAST TWO
RUNS HAVE AGREED WITH THE FRONT MOVING TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM THEN PART IN THEIR SOLUTIONS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST
WHICH DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN
PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE MODEL DATA WAS
THEN INDICATING COLD AIR INTO SE TX BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

Seems like they are trying to avoid mentioning winter weather right now.

[double D]

I thought this was an interesting discussion from the Austin/San Antonio NWS, especially for Christmas Eve and day.


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER MORE AND THE
GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF AN OFF-RUN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS.
SO...STILL A CHANCE FOR WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THEN...CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
CHANCES OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...MAINLY OVER THE SAME AREAS BUT
POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE ESCARPMENT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS seems to be showing more of the same with possibly a slower, more southerly system (meaning longer lasting precip. chances are possible..which is a good thing for winter weather chances in SE Texas)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
^^Sunrise Christmas eve.^^

Amazing to see that the models have now kept this up for 8 runs straight. Makes me feel more confident in the chances.

I will be posting more 18z GFS images as they come in.

[Stratosphere747]

The Houston disco was quite prudent in their disco, they were not trying to avoid mentioning winter weather, because quite frankly there in NO reason to mention winter weather in their forecast area at this time. The earlier DFW disco gives a quick insight into why....

[Portastorm]

EWG ... I wouldn't get too wrapped up in the 18z GFS run if I were you ... I'd trust it as much as I would trust news from the Al Jazeera network.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG ... I wouldn't get too wrapped up in the 18z GFS run if I were you ... I'd trust it as much as I would trust news from the Al Jazeera network.

yeah, I don't trust it really that much at all, it is just interesting to point out that this now makes 8 consistant GFS runs in a row showing a similar situation. The slower movement may also be a hint at what could be coming in the 0z run. I guess we will have to see. Really it is just interesting to look at right now since we are talking about a situation that is now less than a week out.

As Double D pointed out earlier though, it is probably much wiser to look at the ensembles at this range. They likely have a better handle on things. I am not going to put all my faith into one operational model until about 24-72 hrs. before an event (unless the NWS is doing so themselves).