Texas Winter 2020-2021

[EnnisTx]

A westward trend was expected, but hopefully it doesn’t continue. Too much of a westward trend means DFW won’t cash out...again. Hopefully this is a sign of the global models getting out of useful range and, as we start to poop to higher res models, we can see a more accurate picture.

The westward trend has me a bit worried as we all know climatology says that is the usual answer.

I’m not sure what is involved in “poop”ing to high res models but if it will get me some serious snow I’m willing to learn.

Man...I don’t even know what I was trying to say there.

Me either, but let's hope there's no "pooping" with this system!

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 this morning was just a cold rain, maybe some flakes.

Perhaps playing it safe with the track still unknown?

Also, what happened to the website last night? I was having withdrawals.

[EnnisTx]

Fox 4 this morning was just a cold rain, maybe some flakes.

Perhaps playing it safe with the track still unknown?

Also, what happened to the website last night? I was having withdrawals.

They always play it safe a then go into catch-up mode when it’s coming down.

[bubba hotep]

No sugar coating it. Overnight trends were not good for DFW. Still plenty of time for things to shake out over the next few days.

[Ralph's Weather]

The low looks to cut north too sharply for most of us to have wintery fun. A track south of Shreveport is what we need not it cutting up to Broken Bow like models currently show.

[HockeyTx82]

No sugar coating it. Overnight trends were not good for DFW. Still plenty of time for things to shake out over the next few days.

It was fun while it lasted. Either way I've got my shopping done for the next two weeks with our Costco trip yesterday. Got some stuff to make chili and other feel good meals. Nothing like a cold rain to bring in the new year.

[rwfromkansas]

Of course. Dam*. I thought it finally was happening since all models showed it. Nevermind.

[cheezyWXguy]

The low looks to cut north too sharply for most of us to have wintery fun. A track south of Shreveport is what we need not it cutting up to Broken Bow like models currently show.

Keep rooting for the NAM then

[Cerlin]

I wouldn’t lose hope. Whenever you get within 5 days, the Global Models aren’t as accurate as they were. I’d go ahead and follow the short range models as they start to come in. In addition, the track of the low can still change and even if it’s in the middle of what we want and what the GFS shows, it can still bring at least some wintry weather.

[HockeyTx82]

Of course. Dam*. I thought it finally was happening since all models showed it. Nevermind.

I'm taking the not going to happen approach so when it does I will be pleasantly surprised

[DonWrk]

12z ICON is still holding strong to its west and north track.

[rwfromkansas]

I do remember times when the trend was bad and then was good at the last minute. So, will still watch it.

[Brent]

No sugar coating it. Overnight trends were not good for DFW. Still plenty of time for things to shake out over the next few days.

Why am I not shocked

[gpsnowman]

The chance for snow still exists , maybe not the multi-inch maps from yesterday, but it is still there. Still have a couple days for changes, good or bad. FOX4 mentions around sunset Thursday for any snow. Don't give up, things can change!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

I am wondering what biases in the models may be in play here. Models like the gfs tend to be overly progressive, and may be in the process of correcting, hence the slower more western track evolving. However, the models sometimes underdo the southward progression of cold air, which could end up pushing the track more southeast, where we in dfw would want it. This could be why the comparatively higher resolution nam is closer to a favorable path. However, the 12z nam is the first nam run that extends out to the event, and one run is not enough to ascertain a trend.

[bubba hotep]

Taken at face value, 12z GFS is too wrapped up and the track is too far west. The column is absolutely torching over DFW. Our system might be feeling a westward tug from the system dropping down behind it into the SW?

[Cerlin]

I am wondering what biases in the models may be in play here. Models like the gfs tend to be overly progressive, and may be in the process of correcting, hence the slower more western track evolving. However, the models sometimes underdo the southward progression of cold air, which could end up pushing the track more southeast, where we in dfw would want it. This could be why the comparatively higher resolution nam is closer to a favorable path. However, the 12z nam is the first nam run that extends out to the event, and one run is not enough to ascertain a trend.

Precisely. Once we get a few NAM runs in and into the range of the WRF/RGEM/even the HRRR, we’ll have a much better idea.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z CMC follows the trend and pulls things further west.

[bubba hotep]

12z CMC follows the trend and pulls things further west.

When you've lost the Canadian...

On to the 12z Euro. Still a lot of spread in the Euro EPS, so maybe the 12z Euro bucks the trend so far this morning?

[bubba hotep]

Just a reminder, all the favorable trends we saw yesterday basically occurred in a 24hr model cycle from a poor setup to a better one. The trends the last 12 - 18 hrs have been in the wrong direction but not to the point of throwing in the towel. Plenty of model runs left to swing our emotions lol