Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

12Z NAM 3k coming in now, continues the trend of colder at all levels, 0 C 850 line pushing through DFW much earlier on Saturday. Could indicate a quicker changeover to snow.

Nope...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hF0cVDCc/Screenshot-2026-01-23-084202.png [/url]

I think he’s saying it’s an indication it could be trending in that direction, not necessarily that the verbatim output currently shows it

Look at the chart I shared again. There's no way a projected 5-8*C warm nose that is 5,000ft+ deep is just going to trend away in less than 48 hours away.

I'd give up hope of any appreciable snowfall at this point for DFW. Of course, it would be a bonus if anything does fall (and there's still a small chance we could see some light snow that leaves a coating on the tail end).

[Brent]

The Mets up here are saying thunder sleet is a real possibility.

Yeah Tulsa mentioned convective too

I think that's where the 20+ inches is coming from. The models trying to show it

Which the Euro again had right over OKC and Tulsa

Enjoy it! Thundersnow/sleet is a rare treat, especially in the Southern Plains. Hope y’all get a storm for the ages but don’t lose power.

Luckily it should be a fairly dry snow here and probably little if any mix im expecting

Our friends to the south may not be so lucky. You don't have to go far to get into serious ice

[HockeyTx82]

12Z NAM 3k coming in now, continues the trend of colder at all levels, 0 C 850 line pushing through DFW much earlier on Saturday. Could indicate a quicker changeover to snow.

Precip also much aggressive with 2" plus qpf amounts with liquid to frz precip occurs...6-7" sleet totals across a big chunk of North Texas now

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/scentus/sleet_total/1769169600/1769353200-FXo8ax7CnX8.png

Frz Rain down to I-10
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/scentus/frzr_total/1769169600/1769356800-0evxRCJ7qeQ.png

Wow, chances of that happening?

Why do I get the feeling that we might have more on the ground and NWS graphics will be playing catch-up?

[HockeyTx82]

This rain might be washing the brine, or diluting it, could make for more of a mess later on.

[mmmmsnouts]

It’s worth noting this is the first time it’s rained at my house (NW Arlington) in almost two months.

[Ralph's Weather]

I saw thundersleet in March 2014, several inches fell in a short time with lots of lightning and thunder. I was living in a metal bardo at the time and it was crazy.

I am liking the trends today going towards more sleet for I-20 corridor. I know I am not matching NWS around here but I do not think my area sees 0.25" of freezing rain. Its risky forecasting the lower freezing rain amounts as it is the difference in utility issues or not. I still say most likely area for the highest ice accretions in northern Deep East Texas.

I hope you're right!

Me too.

[snownado]

It’s worth noting this is the first time it’s rained at my house (NW Arlington) in almost two months.

You didn't get any rain on 1/8 or 1/9?

Even we got a bit of rain from that system (albeit, only a couple tenths of a inch at best).

[Cerlin]

Nope...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hF0cVDCc/Screenshot-2026-01-23-084202.png [/url]

I think he’s saying it’s an indication it could be trending in that direction, not necessarily that the verbatim output currently shows it

Look at the chart I shared again. There's no way a projected 5-8*C warm nose that is 5,000ft+ deep is just going to trend away in less than 48 hours away.

I'd give up hope of any appreciable snowfall at this point for DFW. Of course, it would be a bonus if anything does fall (and there's still a small chance we could see some light snow that leaves a coating on the tail end).

Eh, I don't blame the skepticism but the NAM is the only one that shows that strong of a warm nose. With how much hydrometeor loading is occurring based on the upper level RH patterns, it wouldn't shock me if there is enough adiabatic cooling to erode that warm nose enough to produce snow, even if that's not until Sunday. But that's almost too hard to forecast at this point and we won't know until this front has fully moved through and we get some real observations.

[Brandon8181]

Yall rang? It me.

Nice timing

[Texas Snowman]

Friendly reminder time.

For the most part, everyone has been playing by the SK2 rules as this has been unfolding.

But occasionally, I’m thinking we’re steering in the direction of a hurricane landfall day where Moderator’s have to issue warnings, remove inflammatory comments, etc.

Let’s not get too chippy with each other or locked into proving a particular point that we feel compelled to make.

To the hundreds of guests we’ve had visiting this week, thank you for doing so and please consider joining us here.

And as always, defer to the official forecasts being issued by the National Weather Service offices in Texas and elsewhere.

[mmmmsnouts]

It’s worth noting this is the first time it’s rained at my house (NW Arlington) in almost two months.

You didn't get any rain on 1/8 or 1/9?

Even we got a bit of rain from that system (albeit, only a couple tenths of a inch at best).

Nope, just barely missed us by a mile or two.

[orangeblood]

Nope...

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hF0cVDCc/Screenshot-2026-01-23-084202.png [/url]

I think he’s saying it’s an indication it could be trending in that direction, not necessarily that the verbatim output currently shows it

Look at the chart I shared again. There's no way a projected 5-8*C warm nose that is 5,000ft+ deep is just going to trend away in less than 48 hours away.

I'd give up hope of any appreciable snowfall at this point for DFW. Of course, it would be a bonus if anything does fall (and there's still a small chance we could see some light snow that leaves a coating on the tail end).

The trend is for a quicker changeover, not to all snow from the onset. Models continue to play catch up across all levels with the cold is my point and at this rate of change, the window that's interesting is when the final heavy qpf moves through on Saturday night between midnight and sunrise Sunday. You get the quicker change over, that could thump a good 3-5" of snow quickly across the metroplex.

Just look at the cool down from last nights NAM run to this mornings, particularly from 06z to 12Z Sunday. It won't take much to bring down frz air from the upper levels to cool the entire column if the DGZ gets cranking

0Z


12Z

[snownado]

I think he’s saying it’s an indication it could be trending in that direction, not necessarily that the verbatim output currently shows it

Look at the chart I shared again. There's no way a projected 5-8*C warm nose that is 5,000ft+ deep is just going to trend away in less than 48 hours away.

I'd give up hope of any appreciable snowfall at this point for DFW. Of course, it would be a bonus if anything does fall (and there's still a small chance we could see some light snow that leaves a coating on the tail end).

Eh, I don't blame the skepticism but the NAM is the only one that shows that strong of a warm nose. With how much hydrometeor loading is occurring based on the upper level RH patterns, it wouldn't shock me if there is enough adiabatic cooling to erode that warm nose enough to produce snow, even if that's not until Sunday. But that's almost too hard to forecast at this point and we won't know until this front has fully moved through and we get some real observations.

The temp profile throughout the entire column will eventually cool to support snow as the precip type, but it's going to be a race against time with the best forcing and mid-level moisture quickly shifting NE Sunday morning. That said, past history with these type of events would suggest the warm nose will not only take longer to completely erode than even the models project, but also that the backside of the precipitation will move in sooner than expected.

I could certainly understand the "dynamic cooling" argument during peak precipitation rates if the warm nose was a mere 1*C and maybe a few hundred feet in depth without a stiff SW wind in the mid-levels. But that's simply not the case here.

BTW, the other models also have a 5,000ft deep warm nose of at least 3-5*C. The GGEM is perhaps the least ugly-looking, but of course we all know it has its own cold bias.

[Cerlin]

Look at the chart I shared again. There's no way a projected 5-8*C warm nose that is 5,000ft+ deep is just going to trend away in less than 48 hours away.

I'd give up hope of any appreciable snowfall at this point for DFW. Of course, it would be a bonus if anything does fall (and there's still a small chance we could see some light snow that leaves a coating on the tail end).

Eh, I don't blame the skepticism but the NAM is the only one that shows that strong of a warm nose. With how much hydrometeor loading is occurring based on the upper level RH patterns, it wouldn't shock me if there is enough adiabatic cooling to erode that warm nose enough to produce snow, even if that's not until Sunday. But that's almost too hard to forecast at this point and we won't know until this front has fully moved through and we get some real observations.

The temp profile throughout the entire column will eventually cool to support snow as the precip type, but it's going to be a race against time with the best forcing and mid-level moisture quickly shifting NE Sunday morning. That said, past history with these type of events would suggest the warm nose will not only take longer to completely erode than even the models project, but also that the backside of the precipitation will move in sooner than expected.

I could certainly understand the "dynamic cooling" argument during peak precipitation rates if the warm nose was a mere 1*C and maybe a few hundred feet in depth without a stiff SW wind in the mid-levels. But that's simply not the case here.

BTW, the other models also have a 5,000ft deep warm nose of at least 3-5*C. The GGEM is perhaps the least ugly-looking, but of course we all know it has its own cold bias.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/8gnzKr9M/Screenshot-2026-01-23-091428.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/3YW2TRT5/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092040.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/MDbtQ5Kx/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092227.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Kc1ZDCZ0/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092327.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/21WrW3mJ/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092433.png [/url]

Yeah that's a good point, I think those additional plots help show some better context. NAM has struggled with a lot of surface dynamics in the past few years but especially with sleet events it tends to do well with precipitation type. Either way, I'll be very interested to see what some of the post front soundings look like to see which of these models has best captured the initial state of the atmosphere.

[FamousOrangeCat]

Hello from Stillwater, Oklahoma! I'm enjoying everyone's expert interpretation of the models and other data. Temp here is down to 27F, with gusty winds. The biggest snowfall I personally remember in Stillwater was ~8" in 2011. There is only limited plowing capacity here, so this should be interesting...!

[snownado]

Eh, I don't blame the skepticism but the NAM is the only one that shows that strong of a warm nose. With how much hydrometeor loading is occurring based on the upper level RH patterns, it wouldn't shock me if there is enough adiabatic cooling to erode that warm nose enough to produce snow, even if that's not until Sunday. But that's almost too hard to forecast at this point and we won't know until this front has fully moved through and we get some real observations.

The temp profile throughout the entire column will eventually cool to support snow as the precip type, but it's going to be a race against time with the best forcing and mid-level moisture quickly shifting NE Sunday morning. That said, past history with these type of events would suggest the warm nose will not only take longer to completely erode than even the models project, but also that the backside of the precipitation will move in sooner than expected.

I could certainly understand the "dynamic cooling" argument during peak precipitation rates if the warm nose was a mere 1*C and maybe a few hundred feet in depth without a stiff SW wind in the mid-levels. But that's simply not the case here.

BTW, the other models also have a 5,000ft deep warm nose of at least 3-5*C. The GGEM is perhaps the least ugly-looking, but of course we all know it has its own cold bias.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/8gnzKr9M/Screenshot-2026-01-23-091428.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/3YW2TRT5/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092040.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/MDbtQ5Kx/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092227.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Kc1ZDCZ0/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092327.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/21WrW3mJ/Screenshot-2026-01-23-092433.png [/url]

Yeah that's a good point, I think those additional plots help show some better context. NAM has struggled with a lot of surface dynamics in the past few years but especially with sleet events it tends to do well with precipitation type. Either way, I'll be very interested to see what some of the post front soundings look like to see which of these models has best captured the initial state of the atmosphere.

A more compelling argument of course would be that DFW overachieves when it comes to sleet. It's certainly plausible that we could avoid freezing rain altogether as long as we get the 925mb temps below 5*C quickly enough, and that's not accounting for the convective nature of the precip with the 1st round.

It still has potential to be one of the worst sleet storms the region has ever seen.

[Tejas89]

the backside of the precipitation will move in sooner than expected.

This is a point worth noting. Seems like with all these events the backend races through faster than forecast. Even leaving us wondering what happened to the “second round.”

In any case, FW office is holding steady with mostly a FRZ RA and sleet event. They may be going conservative on the sleet totals, which is pretty common in these events. Better to be a little off in that direction than the other.

[Texas Snow]

I for one love the spirited debate, with evidence supporting different outcomes. Of course keep it civil but I think in general posts that everything is great or everything is dire never tell the full story. The screenshots with support only add to the value of the board. Thanks to everyone truly analyzing this.

[funster]

Ercot showing a slightly tight supply and demand on the 26th with about 6,000 MW to spare. Fingers crossed. https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashb ... yanddemand

[rwfromkansas]

12Z NAM 3k coming in now, continues the trend of colder at all levels, 0 C 850 line pushing through DFW much earlier on Saturday. Could indicate a quicker changeover to snow.

Precip also much aggressive with 2" plus qpf amounts with liquid to frz precip occurs...6-7" sleet totals across a big chunk of North Texas now

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/scentus/sleet_total/1769169600/1769353200-FXo8ax7CnX8.png

Frz Rain down to I-10
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/scentus/frzr_total/1769169600/1769356800-0evxRCJ7qeQ.png

Isn't this one that really goes into the NBM a lot, so it might bump things up there?