Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Brent]

A few hi-res models hinting at light flurries early morning for Tulsa (that includes you, Brent).

Unfortunately though models just aren’t budging with moving it east. Keeping it over NW Texas. If actual temps are false and they’re cooler than the models this would definitely help bring something to the I-35 corridor. Just need to hope.

Eh flurries don't do anything for me at this point we had an inch before Christmas so that's sort of my base line here can we beat that. Of course it also felt like -20 then

[gpsnowman]

According to the NWS the accumulation line covers most of Denton and Tarrant counties. 19% for Denton and 5% for Tarrant. Probably some huge wet flakes mixed with rain. I'm off Tuesday and will be making a huge pot of beef stew. Would be cool to see some snow while eating a large bowl of it.

[Brent]

Tulsa

The strong kinematics
associated with the upper low along with some period of favorable
lapse rates aloft could also lead to some convective structures
within the heavy snow bands, with a few strikes of lightning not
out of the question late on Tuesday

[gpsnowman]

Tulsa

The strong kinematics
associated with the upper low along with some period of favorable
lapse rates aloft could also lead to some convective structures
within the heavy snow bands, with a few strikes of lightning not
out of the question late on Tuesday

Very cool. Hope this storm overperforms for OK and Texas.

[Ntxw]

6z Euro and GEFS still gives DFW a few inches. It's oh so close (marginal) on temps. Hopefully ULL will overperform.

The pocket of cold follows the ULL. Should watch 850mb temps to see if it can help out from above.

[orangeblood]

Some fairly significant changes to the latest GEFS run, several members have trended south with accumulating snow bringing some heavy amounts into DFW.

[Ntxw]

Some fairly significant changes to the latest GEFS run, several members have trended south with accumulating snow bringing some heavy amounts into DFW.

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_snow_24/1674367200/1674367200-owITLWDVSKs.png

QPF is strongest from DFW to SE Oklahoma. This is where dynamics of thunderstorms will play a role. If it switches it can go wild.

[Iceresistance]

Didn't think that NWS-Norman would do this, but they did.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/0PaMBCrhP3Q[/youtube]

[Iceresistance]

KWTV has 3-6 inches for my area for Tuesday's system.

[Iceresistance]

I got NAMed


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-NAM.png

[funster]

Cold Rain Guaranteed sounds like a good band name. Not in the mood for it weatherwise tho.

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1617177532620541960

[Brent]

I got NAMed

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-NAM.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-NAM.png

We are so close to a much bigger storm here tbh. Still plenty of time for a last minute shift too

[txtwister78]

Cold Rain Guaranteed sounds like a good band name. Not in the mood for it weatherwise tho.

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1617177532620541960

I think that's a good forecast depiction based on where things line up currently per the latest model guidance. The ICON has really been locked in the past few days from the Lubbock area east into southern Oklahoma/Wichita Falls region stretching into NW Ark in terms of the best chance for the highest snowfall potential. NBM however is a little north of that and so despite the Euro being on the southern edge of the guidance, the overall trend really hasn't changed all that much.

Where I think we could see some wild swings is in the accumulation totals for this event due to the uncertainty that remains from an atmospheric/dynamic setup as it relates to the ULL. Short range models are now coming into range and should help to iron some of that out.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GFS has already trended the trough stronger compared to 6z.

[Tammie]

The 12z GFS has already trended the trough stronger compared to 6z.

Is that better or worse for the red river areas?

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GFS has already trended the trough stronger compared to 6z.

Is that better or worse for the red river areas?

More snow for DFW!

[Ntxw]

The 12z GFS has already trended the trough stronger compared to 6z.

Is that better or worse for the red river areas?

More snow for DFW!

It's dynamics.

Ever slightly south and or East shift would help cool above faster.

[Iceresistance]

What the heck!? It's snowing at my area!

[Brent]

What the heck!? It's snowing at my area!

Ha I saw that on Facebook and immediately thought this is a preview of the NWS being busy Tuesday

[Ntxw]

Medium-long range the 0z Euro didn't look as bad as yesterday's 12z. Still questions, but I would still lean on some kind of cold dump for a period. Believe the cold air mass will overwhelm the flow.