Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

#401 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:09 pm

Hey at least some of you HAVE a forecast for tonight!

Austin/San Antonio NWS has yet to issue their forecast or their forecast discussion and we're past 4 pm!

#402 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:10 pm

wall_cloud wrote:1.73"?

You must be super fast, I fixed it the second I was allowed to post again

#403 Postby **wall_cloud** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:14 pm

I'm the post(inator). Fear me LOL :ggreen:

Portastorm, I'm sure that they have had a LOT to do today. Give them a few minutes. the ZFP is out

Johnny · #404 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:14 pm

Yep, I'm waiting on the discussion out of Austin. I'll probably leave my house in a few hours to head that way. They sure are taking their sweet time with the forecast. Hmmmmmm.

#405 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:19 pm

Hot off the presses ....

TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...AUSTIN
409 PM CST WED NOV 29 2006

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. BREEZY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO EAST 15 TO 25 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDY. MUCH COLDER. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR...COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

********************

wall_cloud's NWS brethren say: No soup (ice) for you Austin!

#406 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:20 pm

Front just passed AZLE. It's now officially in the Metroplex...

Johnny · #407 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:23 pm

I wouldn't hang my hat on that just yet portastorm. Even if the discussion dismisses the idea of frozen precip still doesn't mean it won't happen. Icing events for the Austin and Houston area aren't really mentioned till they are already happening. LOL It looks unlikely that it will happen but ya never know.

Extremeweatherguy · #408 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:25 pm

Johnny wrote:I wouldn't hang my hat on that just yet portastorm. Even if the discussion dismisses the idea of frozen precip still doesn't mean it won't happen. Icing events for the Austin and Houston area aren't really mentioned till they are already happening. LOL It looks unlikely that it will happen but ya never know.

exactly. And though I don't think we will get a significant storm, I have the feeling my area of town will be seeing a few sleet pellets or some light freezing rain before it is all said and done tomorrow.

#409 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:26 pm

We're on the wrong side of the upper low for any sleet and with the surface freezing line north of us, no ice either

Johnny · #410 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:29 pm

See Portastorm, weather.com still have faith!hehe

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail ... 7?dayNum=1

#411 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:32 pm

Johnny wrote:See Portastorm, weather.com still have faith!hehe

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail ... 7?dayNum=1

Oh great ... the Weather Channel! :roll:

TexasStooge · #412 Postby **TexasStooge** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:33 pm

jschlitz wrote:Front just passed AZLE. It's now officially in the Metroplex...

Winds are picking up speed here.

Extremeweatherguy · #413 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:33 pm

jschlitz wrote:We're on the wrong side of the upper low for any sleet and with the surface freezing line north of us, no ice either

I think the freezing line will reach northern Harris earlier than expected. I just have a feeling we will be surprised. Also, from what I have been reading (including jeff's post earlier), we should probably be into the upper 20s by Friday morning (meaning any wet surfaces should freeze). The only reason the NWS is not showing this ATM (they are showing 32-33F) is because they, like always, are staying with the warmest models until they are sure they will be wrong.

One of the biggest things to watch will be tomorrow's wetbulb temperature. If the situation is right, I think a few sleet pellets could mix in for sure. Remember last December when it was 45F with a sleet/rain mix that briefly occurred north of I-10? That was not expected in the forecast either (until after the fact), but it happened. Same thing might happen this time.

BTW: the 18Z GFS shows freezing 850mb temps. getting dangerously close to our area by Thursday evening with precip! Freezing upper level temps. with surface temps. in the 30s may mean a better shot at some wintery weather mixed in.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml

Extremeweatherguy · #414 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:34 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Johnny wrote:See Portastorm, weather.com still have faith!hehe

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail ... 7?dayNum=1

Oh great ... the Weather Channel!

what a weird forecast. They drop you down to 32F at noon with freezing rain and then raise you back into the 40s by 3pm with partly sunny skies.

#415 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:36 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Johnny wrote:See Portastorm, weather.com still have faith!hehe

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail ... 7?dayNum=1

Oh great ... the Weather Channel!
what a weird forecast. They drop you down to 32F at noon with freezing rain and then raise you back into the 40s by 3pm with partly sunny skies.

Yeah EWG ... well, consider the source ... that's all I need to say!

I'm eager to see what our pal jeff has to say about things ... haven't seen a forecast note from him since lunchtime.

#416 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:36 pm

Front now extends from Weatherford/Hudson Oaks to Azle to Denton

Johnny · #417 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:38 pm

Hey EWG, have you read Jeff's latest forecast ideas? He's thinking the freezing precipitation could reach the very norther counties of southeast, Texas.

Per 12Z NAM forecast soundings for 24, 30, and 36 hours showing a rapidly deepening cold dome (2,000 ft Thursday AM to 6,000 ft midday to all frozen by evening) over N TX Thursday suggest a sooner changeover to snow and sleet across N TX and this will result in the freezing line pushing southward deeper into our area. Feel rain may change to freezing rain during the mid afternoon from College Station to Huntsville and then mix or even change to sleet and snow by early evening. Very tough timing with this aspect as dry slot from the WSW will be cutting in as the cold air deepens to support the change to frozen precip. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for our northern counties.

Extremeweatherguy · #418 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:39 pm

Johnny wrote:Hey EWG, have you read Jeff's latest forecast ideas? He's thinking the freezing precipitation could reach the very norther counties of southeast, Texas.

Per 12Z NAM forecast soundings for 24, 30, and 36 hours showing a rapidly deepening cold dome (2,000 ft Thursday AM to 6,000 ft midday to all frozen by evening) over N TX Thursday suggest a sooner changeover to snow and sleet across N TX and this will result in the freezing line pushing southward deeper into our area. Feel rain may change to freezing rain during the mid afternoon from College Station to Huntsville and then mix or even change to sleet and snow by early evening. Very tough timing with this aspect as dry slot from the WSW will be cutting in as the cold air deepens to support the change to frozen precip. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for our northern counties.

this is from about lunchtime, right? I can't wait to see an even more recent update. Latest 18Z models seem to be even a tad colder.

Either way though, very interesting indeed that a WWA may be needed for the northern counties.

#419 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:44 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:We're on the wrong side of the upper low for any sleet and with the surface freezing line north of us, no ice either
I think the freezing line will reach northern Harris earlier than expected. I just have a feeling we will be surprised. Also, from what I have been reading (including jeff's post earlier), we should probably be into the upper 20s by Friday morning (meaning any wet surfaces should freeze). The only reason the NWS is not showing this ATM (they are showing 32-33F) is because they, like always, are staying with the warmest models until they are sure they will be wrong.

One of the biggest things to watch will be tomorrow's wetbulb temperature. If the situation is right, I think a few sleet pellets could mix in for sure. Remember last December when it was 45F with a sleet/rain mix that briefly occurred north of I-10? That was not expected in the forecast either (until after the fact), but it happened. Same thing might happen this time.

I don't remember the exact setup that night but that was a very strange, once in a decade (or decades) event for Houston. There was just enough dynamic cooling above the surface for some sleet mixed in. This time the energy to produce such an event will be too far north unless the upper low REALLY digs further south than forecasted. This airmass will be so shallow tomorrow the risk of sleet is pretty much nonexistent - if anything it would be ice.

However, I really don't think there will be enough moisture left over to freeze this time either.

#420 Postby **wall_cloud** » Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:48 pm

its 16 degrees in Boise City, OK

Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

Who is online