Winter Weather in the deep south thread

#41 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 8:28 pm

jinftl wrote:At least for the last few weeks (actually for most of Fall in Southeast), I have to respectfully disagree that the CPC outlooks have been unreliable

....look at temp anomalies (link below)for the last 2 weeks.... the prediction of above normal temps in the south has been right on point...and that pattern seems much more likely to persist (compared to say a GFS run or two showing snow in Orlando in 9 days when the 7-day local forecast shows temps in the 70s/80s for the next 7 days...the GFS that far out has been consistently much colder than actual temps turned out to be)...not as exciting a headline i realize..but every cool front can't be 'epic!!!'

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/us-weekly.php?year=2007&month=12&sat=15&submit_form=Submit&_submit_check=1#tanom

Ivanhater wrote:Overall, the CPC outlooks have not been very reliable this fall/winter (IMO).

I didnt say that :uarrow:

jinftl · #42 Postby **jinftl** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 8:31 pm

You are right....i apologize for misattributing that quote...sorry ivanhater..i edited my original posting to remove your name

Ivanhater wrote:
jinftl wrote:At least for the last few weeks (actually for most of Fall in Southeast), I have to respectfully disagree that the CPC outlooks have been unreliable

....look at temp anomalies (link below)for the last 2 weeks.... the prediction of above normal temps in the south has been right on point...and that pattern seems much more likely to persist (compared to say a GFS run or two showing snow in Orlando in 9 days when the 7-day local forecast shows temps in the 70s/80s for the next 7 days...the GFS that far out has been consistently much colder than actual temps turned out to be)...not as exciting a headline i realize..but every cool front can't be 'epic!!!'

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/us-weekly.php?year=2007&month=12&sat=15&submit_form=Submit&_submit_check=1#tanom

Ivanhater wrote:Overall, the CPC outlooks have not been very reliable this fall/winter (IMO).

I didnt say that

#43 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 11:44 pm

Make that the 3rd run in a row today that shows snow the 2nd and 3rd..and 4days in a row showing this solution..getting interesting...

Extremeweatherguy · #44 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 12:23 am

The 00z GFS is definitely my favorite run so far in terms of winter weather over here in Texas! :eek:

Can you say New Years Day snow storm?!?!?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif

This would be the second best snow scenario, IMO. Christmas day is always #1, but New Years day is easily my #2. I will definitely be wishing for this one to happen, that's for sure!

One thing I do like right now is the consistency of this "cold snap" on GFS. This is now several DAYS in a row that it has shown an early January arctic chill. Hopefully that means that this time there will be some truth to this outlook.

#45 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 12:43 am

I'm not holding onto anything yet, but I really hope these runs persist.

#46 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 8:00 am

And the latest meteofram for KIAH(Houston Intercontinental airport) as of Monday morning.

We can always hope!!! But don't hang anything on that nail!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #47 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 8:07 am

I am just glad that this time we are within the <11 day timeframe. Usually these ridiculous scenarios only show up beyond 11-12 days, so to see something only in the 8-9-10 day range gives me a bit of hope. If the models still look similar 3-5 days from now, then I might start buying into this a bit more, because by that point we should only be a week or less out from the event. Definitely interesting though! And I like the idea that the GFS has some support from the other models as well.

#48 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 8:50 am

Again the 06z run shows the artic plunge on the 2nd with snow in the area...getting very interesting for all of us in the deep south from Texas to Florida!

#49 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:17 am

Watching it very closely here in Charlotte as well. Love the run to run consistency of GFS and as extremeweatherguy said, the support of other models, still 9 days out.

#50 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:38 am

Just checking the forecasts...accuweather showing snow for Auburn Alabama on the 2nd...

Opal storm · #51 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:43 am

Ivanhater wrote:Just checking the forecasts...accuweather showing snow for Auburn Alabama on the 2nd...

Did you see the Pensacola forecast for next Tuesday night????

Windy and very cold with a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain

Maybe....just maybe.

adamh1181 · #52 Postby **adamh1181** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 9:45 am

It was colder here this morning than I expected, (callahan, FL North of Jacksonville) 35 at my house

Ed Mahmoud · #53 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:08 am

Some good news for fans of potentially icy weather for Texas and other points in the South.

New 0Z Euro has a 1040 mb high building into Texas with SW flow aloft. Sometimes good for an ice storm

Ed Mahmoud · #54 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:12 am

adamh1181 wrote:It was colder here this morning than I expected, (callahan, FL North of Jacksonville) 35 at my house

34ºF at the Big Airport just North of Houston this morning. Brrrr.

The new Austin airport got down to 26ºF. It is the old Bergstrom AFB, and is in the valley of the Colorado River. Austin-Mabry got down to 30ºF closer to downtown. Because the new AUS is in a valley where cold air drains on still nights, expect more record colds at greater frequency the next few years.

#55 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:21 am

Good points Ed about the AUS temps. It took NWS several years to calibrate the observing equipment at Bergstrom when it opened as the new airport as we had many suspicious highs/lows. Accuracy is now much better. The mid 20s readings correspond with what we saw this morning north of Austin in places like Round Rock and Georgetown.

The temps at Mabry, however, are usually more representative of what you'll see around the metro area of AUS.

Extremeweatherguy · #56 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:28 am

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
adamh1181 wrote:It was colder here this morning than I expected, (callahan, FL North of Jacksonville) 35 at my house

34ºF at the Big Airport just North of Houston this morning. Brrrr.

The new Austin airport got down to 26ºF. It is the old Bergstrom AFB, and is in the valley of the Colorado River. Austin-Mabry got down to 30ºF closer to downtown. Because the new AUS is in a valley where cold air drains on still nights, expect more record colds at greater frequency the next few years.

Actually, IAH managed to hit 33F according to the records: http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIAH.html . It also managed to hit 29.8F this morning up here in Spring, which is comparable to the 30F that Hooks hit. Overall, a very cold and frosty night, though not quite as cold as yesterday morning when I hit 27.7F and IAH hit 31F.

Extremeweatherguy · #57 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 11:41 am

#58 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 12:00 pm

Im liking the run to run showing the same solution extreme!!! :cold:

#59 Postby **MGC** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 12:11 pm

This would be awsome if it comes to pass. My Mom is visiting me on the 3rd and this would be such a great event to share. I remember driving over to see her Christmas Day 2004 through the snow! Merry Christmas Ya'll.......MGC

#60 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Dec 24, 2007 12:14 pm

MGC wrote:This would be awsome if it comes to pass. My Mom is visiting me on the 3rd and this would be such a great event to share. I remember driving over to see her Christmas Day 2004 through the snow! Merry Christmas Ya'll.......MGC

Indeed MGC...this is what im talking about!! :cold:

Winter Weather in the deep south thread

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