southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

aggiecutter · #41 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 1:11 pm

portastrorm, this has the potential to be a devastating ice storm for northern texas, southern arkansas and northern louisiana. In my mind, the temps are going to be a given in this area---upper 20's to lower 30's. If there is an ample amount of moisture, then things could get really bad, especially in the piney woods of NE Texas where there are a lot of trees.

#42 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 1:15 pm

aggiecutter wrote:portastrorm, this has the potential to be a devastating ice storm for northern texas, southern arkansas and northern louisiana. In my mind, the temps are going to be a given in this area---upper 20's to lower 30's. If there is an ample amount of moisture, then things could get really bad, especially in the piney woods of NE Texas where there are a lot of trees.

That is certainly troubling news. Some of those areas were also negatively impacted by Rita. That's all east Texas needs ... ouch!

Will watch with interest. Thanks, aggiecutter!

#43 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 1:21 pm

Ch 8 met put freezing rain/sleet into his forecast for the mornings this weekend. He also said it could be worse than that and that he was being conservative for now.

#44 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 2:13 pm

gboudx wrote:Ch 8 met put freezing rain/sleet into his forecast for the mornings this weekend. He also said it could be worse than that and that he was being conservative for now.

He is reading straight from the NWS weekend outlook, However from the

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
901 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES MUCH FASTER.
THUS THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE 3 TO 4 HRS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. UPDATED
FORECAST TO SPEED UP TIMING...COOL TEMPERATURES...ETC. NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD NOT WARM UP MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD AIR DEEPENS.

#45 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 2:21 pm

gboudx wrote:Ch 8 met put freezing rain/sleet into his forecast for the mornings this weekend. He also said it could be worse than that and that he was being conservative for now.

NWS FT WORTH TX
THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAYBE STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

plainsman · #46 Postby **plainsman** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 2:29 pm

what did i tell you guys about the DFW area.. at first they said just the red river counties and northern area of DFW.. now they say all of DFW will be getting effectied with wintry precipitation the air is colder then anticipated and next it will be a winter storm watch for the DFW area and north.. i think corsicana and waxachie will be included too... (the southern suberbs of Dallas)... if they dont put a winter storm watch for the DFW metro area this afternoon they''ll just put a winter storm watch for just the red river counties (northern suberbs of Dallas fortworth) :roll:

but ill make a 100 dollar bet with anyone that if they do that theyll issue it for DFW hours after that

.... alot of weather mets are agreeing upper 20s for saturday night with freezing rain, heck that could be our highs.. well just have to wait and see.. :wink:

plainsman · #47 Postby **plainsman** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 2:54 pm

accuweather has just updated their forecast saying a coating to an inch of snow will accumulate fro the Dallas/Fort worth metro.... and surrounding areas.. they also have freezing rain/sleet all the way down to waco and maybe al little further south then that... saturday they have temps in the mid to upper 20s for highs in fort worth saturday and upper 20s to 30 degrees for Dallas, low 20s with freezing rain for for worth saturday night, and mid 20s with freezing rain for Dallas saturday night... this could get messy folks... it also look like oklahoma city might not get anything but flurries out of this all the precip looks to be in north texas, extreme south oklahoma and west southwest arkansas... i wouldnt be surprised to see a winter storm watch or at least a winter weather advisory up soon for DFW

plainsman · #48 Postby **plainsman** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 2:55 pm

i meant a coating to an inch of ice, sleet and snow,

#49 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 2:56 pm

Gang, this thing is changing by the moment!! Austin/San Antonio NWS issued this Special Weather Statement in the last hour. What's so interesting is that they are NOT ruling out freezing precip for our area. It's not in the forecast yet ... but sounds like it could be:

...WINTER WEATHER HEADED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO 40S DURING THE DAY AND DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COME CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. AT THIS
TIME...FREEZING RAIN IS NOT FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IS STILL
IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND
AUSTIN METRO AREA.

plainsman · #50 Postby **plainsman** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:06 pm

ya i know the hill country will get freezing rain sleet for sure, especially with the higher elevation they have, san angelo, llano san marcos for sure, i think sanantonio and austin will get some also on saturday night... thats yalls best shot... i dont know about a for sure thing for sa/ and austin but theres a chance at some wintry precip for sanantonio and austin fri/satnight :wink:

....

#51 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:16 pm

Check out the NAM precip map. You'll need to advance it to see how the event develops.

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

Johnny · #52 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:32 pm

Well, I just got word we are going to Wimberley after all. lol Do y'all think their is a possibility of wintery precip. in this area?

#53 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:42 pm

Johnny, use the link I posted above and see how the precip develops over the area you're going to.

#54 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:54 pm

gboudx wrote:Check out the NAM precip map. You'll need to advance it to see how the event develops.

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=US

Precip looks good but a little to far south. Sleet and Freezing rain will be main concern for the DFW area Sat afternoon thru Sunday evening.

#55 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 4:03 pm

FYI, DFW temp as of now is 84. Record high for today was 83. Looks like the front is on top of the Red River. Ardmore is showing temps in the 60's and dropping.

#56 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 4:07 pm

Hey plainsman, good call on this setting up in our area. Winter Storm Watch just posted.

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO
GROESBECK TO PALESTINE. A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
EVENING WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL...SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GROUND TEMPERATURE AT THIS TIME IS VERY WARM BUT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL ICE QUICKLY PRESENTING AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO
DRIVERS. HOWEVER...ROADWAYS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN ICE FREE FOR A
FEW HOURS LONGER WHILE THE GROUND COOLS.

Extremeweatherguy · #57 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 4:08 pm

Latest NWS forecast for Houston is calling for a high of 41F and a low of 35F..they are even saying we may not get out of the 30s! They also mentioned in their latest AFD that they will be monitering the possibility of wintry weather...IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS!

cheezyWXguy · #58 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:07 pm

DANG! WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MY AREA FRI NITE THRU SUNDAY and it looks like i maybe picking up more than 1/2 inch of ice....Yay! I win 10 bucks from my friend now!!!

cheezyWXguy · #59 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:15 pm

If we get as much as accu forecasts...were really in trouble...1 INCH!!!

#60 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Feb 16, 2006 5:17 pm

cheezywxman wrote:DANG! WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MY AREA FRI NITE THRU SUNDAY and it looks like i maybe picking up more than 1/2 inch of ice....Yay! I win 10 bucks from my friend now!!!

NWS FT WORTH says anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice/sleet is possible across the metro area with higher accu N/NW where a deeper cold airmass will be, Freezing precip will spread as far south as Waco.

ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE WX EVENT NEARS!!!!

southern plains freezing rain/sleet thread

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