February 11-12, 2006 Snowstorm: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

Ohiostorm,

Through the 0z NAM, I'm not inclined to change my idea of 1"-3" for PIT.

On another larger-scale note, the PDO has roared up to +1.03. Barring a big change in the SSTs, the PDO could well wind up having averaged > 0 for the Winter 2005-06 (DJF/M). This development might well argue for a delayed spring--more cold than normal across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and East Coast.

[Jim Cantore]

I'll fire some guesses

My location: 9-12"
Philadelphia: 9-12"
Washington DC: 5-8"
Baltimore: 6-9"
New York City: 9-12"
Boston: 6-10"
Miami: 25-30"

[ohiostorm]

Pittsburgh NWS has slacked off their totals a tad since this morning. Now around 1 to 3. They were saying 2 to 4 inches by Sunday morning. I bet most of our snowfall will come during the wrap- around.

[btangy]

Tropopause map for the US is available here

http://wind.mit.edu/~nikhil/gifdir/Plot ... urrent.gif

These maps are generated by plotting constant Ertel Potential Vorticity on Potential Temperature Surfaces. Tropopause folding is not uncommon as you can find examples of it usually near big waves. I'm not sure why it was mentioned in the NWS Taunton discussion. It's usually associated with breaking waves, and is important for troposphere/stratosphere exchange.

[ohiostorm]

We aren't getting any snow from this system. Maybe a light dusting. Moisture looks to be going to the south. Yet another bust.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight and through 6z the models consolidated into what appears to be a fairly stable consensus. Consequently, the big cities from Washington, DC to Boston will be in for a widespread heavy snowfall. While this storm would not win a proverbial gold medal if pitted against some of the giants of the past such as the Blizzard of 1996, against this winter's competition to date, its performance will dazzle. Its technical merit (accumulations) should be significant. Its artistic merit (blowing and drifting) should sparkle along the coastlines and just inland where blizzard conditions are likely. In terms of its overall rock-solid performance even against the stern test of the more easterly ECMWF early on and the NAMS wild west and distant east attempts, the GFS will step to the top of the model stand should this storm verify as expected.

Final Snowfall Estimates:

Albany: 2"-5"
Asheville: 1"-3"
Baltimore: 7"-14"
Boone: 3"-7"
Boston: 8"-14"
Chattanooga: 2" or less
Concord: 4"-8"
Hagerstown: 4"-8"
Harrisburg: 2"-5"
Hartford: 5"-10"
Hickory: 1"-3"
Islip: 8"-16"
Knoxville: 2"-5"
Lexington: 2"-5"
Nashville: 1"-3"
New York City: 7"-14"
Newark: 7"-14"
Philadelphia: 8"-14"
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"
Portland: 4"-8"
Providence: 7"-14"
Richmond: 3"-7"
Washington, DC:
.....DCA: 6"-12"
.....IAD: 4"-8"
Worcester: 6"-12"

Historic Tidbit:

While one waits for the storm to commence, 23 years ago one of the East Coast's great blizzards was making its trek northward. The following is an account from the February 12, 1983 issue of The New York Times:

The worst winter storm in five years struck the mid-Atlantic states and the New York metropolitan area... Howling winds and deep snows disrupted travel, commerce, entertainment, government and end-of-the-week activities for millions of people... In cities, suburbs and windblown rural settings from the Carolinas to the Northeast, up to 26 inches of snow closed schools and airports, blocked highways, knocked out power suplies and forced businessses and government offices to close early. Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Trenton were virtually paralyzed.

[jimvb]

btangy, your troposphere map is no longer available. Clicking on that link yields an error message.

It is unusual to see Richmond with a prediction of 3-7 inches of snow after rain. The prediction for daylight today is rain, and it is raining right now. I heard a TV weatherman about two decades ago say that if a storm starts as rain here in Richmond, it will not become a snowstorm. It will stay rain, with maybe a little bit of snow, an inch or so, at the end. Indeed, I can't remember any big snowstorms here that started out as a substantial period of rain. Every single big snowstorm here started out as snow, within the first two hours or so.

This makes me doubt this forecast a bit, even though that same weatherman is calling for 3-5 inches here tonight. Either we will get snow today in daylight here in Richmond or we are not going to get much at all.

[donsutherland1]

Jim,

I believe the 3" idea is good for RIC. Given that the storm is likely to bomb near the Delmarva, there is a possibility that the heights could crash and moderate rain could turn to heavy snow that would accumulate very quickly (Dec. 25, 2002 is an example of such a sitaution albeit from NYC into southern New England, but the presence of sufficient moisture at the time the heights crash is what is important). Hence, I put a high number to cap the end of the range.

[sphinx]

Here east-northeast of DC am still waiting ... Have had intermittent light rain since 8:30 AM with brief pauses and a high of 40. The temperature has fallen steadily the last two hours and is now 36.9.

Earlier forecasts had 1-3 inches of snow this afternoon. Suspect we'll have no accumulating snow until after dark. At least the rain is feeling colder!

[ohiostorm]

I doutb we will see that 1 to 3 inches Don. Its just now flurrying and theres not much on radar.

[thunderchief]

kbos-12 inches blowing and drifting(blizard)
klga-10 inches
kphl-8 inches

just inland of boston- 14-18 inches

[WindRunner]

Not a bad final call there Don. DCA ended up with a storm total 8.1", 7.2" on the ground. IAD, though, got at or right below a foot, and Baltimore got the high end or higher of your range.

And I find it interesting about you mentioning the heights crash - Coming back home from Norfolk last evening/night via I-64 to I-95, the temperature was 40F about a mile east of I-95/I-64 interchange with heavy rain. No more than 1/4 mile after starting to head north on I-95, the temperature had dropped to 34F and was entirely snow, with absolutely no warning of the transistion. Seems to fit the heights crash you were talking about.

EDIT: somehow, when Dulles' report finally came in, it came in at 7", so it looks like you hit that, even though a couple of reports less than 3 miles away have double-digit totals. Seems a little fishy, but that is the official number.

[TeeBird]

11.5 here in Warrenton, VA--about 50 miles due west of Wash.D.C.

Good call on totals.

[Black Snow]

I am hearing Columbia, MD has 22'' on the ground. Amazing.

[thunderchief]

"Good call on totals."

not for those of us forecasting for NY and BOS.

oh well

its hard to see 2 feet of snow coming.

[Extremeweatherguy]

donsutherland1 wrote:

Historic Tidbit:

While one waits for the storm to commence, 23 years ago one of the East Coast's great blizzards was making its trek northward. The following is an account from the February 12, 1983 issue of The New York Times:

The worst winter storm in five years struck the mid-Atlantic states and the New York metropolitan area... Howling winds and deep snows disrupted travel, commerce, entertainment, government and end-of-the-week activities for millions of people... In cities, suburbs and windblown rural settings from the Carolinas to the Northeast, up to 26 inches of snow closed schools and airports, blocked highways, knocked out power suplies and forced businessses and government offices to close early. Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Trenton were virtually paralyzed.

Looks like History has repeated itself...

[Stephanie]

Had 14.5 inches of snow at my house.

[lester]

I am hearing Columbia, MD has 22'' on the ground. Amazing.

yep...B-More/DC got hammered

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

Overall, some horrible (but wonderful) busts were the result, where snowfall greatly exceeded my expectations. Moreover, it should be noted that precipitation in a number of locations significantly exceeded the modeled output e.g., 1.57” fell at NYC while the 2/12 0z NAM had around an inch. To give credit where credit is due, it should be noted that AccuWeather’s Joe Bastardi discussed the possibility of precipitation exceeding the estimated qpf. It should also be noted that John (Typhoon Tip), a Massachusetts-based meteorologist had discussed a convergence of teleconnective signals and indicated that such a situation sometimes led to extremes.

The convective snows—widespread thundersnow was reported in the New York City Metro area (my wife’s first ever thundersnow event)—and this greatly ramped up the snowfall. In NYC, the snow fell at a rate of nearly 4”/hour for a 2-3 hour stretch.


From 2/9 2:30 pm:
Albany: 3"-7"; Actual: 0.9”; Error: 2.1”
Baltimore: 3"-7"; Actual: 13.1”; Error: 6.1”
Boston: 8"-14"; Actual: 17.5”; Error: 3.5”
Concord: 6"-10"; Actual: 2.7”; Error: 3.3”
Hagerstown: 5"-10"; Actual: 13.1”; Error: 3.1”
Hartford: 5"-10"; Actual: 21.9”; Error: 11.9”
Islip: 3"-7"; Actual: 19.9”; Error: 12.9”
New York City: 5"-10"; Actual: 26.9”; Error: 16.9”
Newark: 5"-10"; Actual: 21.3”; Error: 11.3”
Philadelphia: 4"-8"; Actual: 12.0”; Error: 4.0”
Portland: 5"-10"; Actual: 5.8”; Within range
Providence: 6"-12"; Actual: 9.4”; Within range
Richmond: 2" or less; Actual: 2.2”; Error: 0.2”
Washington, DC:
…DCA: 3"-6"; Actual: 8.8”; Error: 2.8”
…IAD: 3"-7"; Actual: 8.1”; Error: 1.1”
Worcester: 8"-14"; Actual: 16.9”; Error: 2.9”

From 2/9 11:30 pm:
Asheville: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Boone: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.2” (Per AccuWx); Within range
Chattanooga: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0”
Hickory: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Knoxville: 2"-5"; Actual: 0.7”; Error: 1.3”
Lexington: 2"-5"; Actual: 3.3”; Within range
Nashville: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0”

From 2/10 3:00 pm:
Albany: 2"-5"; Actual: 0.9”; Error: 1.1”
Asheville: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Baltimore: 3"-7"; Actual: 13.1”; Error: 6.1”
Boone: 3"-7"; Actual: 1.2” (Per AccuWx); Error: 1.8”
Boston: 8"-14"; Actual: 17.5”; Error: 3.5”
Chattanooga: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Concord: 4"-8"; Actual: 2.7”; Error: 1.3”
Hagerstown: 4"-8"; Actual: 13.1”; Error: 5.1”
Hartford: 5"-10"; Actual: 21.9”; Error: 11.9”
Hickory: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Islip: 5"-10"; Actual: 19.9”; Error: 9.9”
Knoxville: 2"-5"; Actual: 0.7”; Error: 1.3”
Lexington: 2"-5"; Actual: 3.3”; Within range
Nashville: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0”
New York City: 5"-10"; Actual: 26.9”; Error: 16.9”
Newark: 5"-10"; Actual: 21.3”; Error: 11.3”
Philadelphia: 4"-8"; Actual: 12.0”; Error: 4.0”
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"; Actual: 2.1”; Within range
Portland: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.8”; Within range
Providence: 6"-12"; Actual: 9.4”; Within range
Richmond: 2"-5"; Actual: 2.2”; Within range
Washington, DC:
…DCA: 3"-7"; Actual: 8.8”; Error: 1.8”
…IAD: 3"-7"; Actual: 8.1”; Error: 1.1”
Worcester: 6"-12"; Actual: 16.9”; Error: 4.9”

From 2/11 8:00 am:
Albany: 2"-5"; Actual: 0.9”; Error: 1.1”
Asheville: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Baltimore: 7"-14"; Actual: 13.1”; Within range
Boone: 3"-7"; Actual: 1.2” (Per AccuWx); Error: 1.8”
Boston: 8"-14"; Actual: 17.5”; Error: 3.5”
Chattanooga: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Concord: 4"-8"; Actual: 2.7”; Error: 1.3”
Hagerstown: 4"-8"; Actual: 13.1”; Error: 5.1”
Harrisburg: 2"-5"; Actual: 5.0”; Within range
Hartford: 5"-10"; Actual: 21.9”; Error: 11.9”
Hickory: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Islip: 8"-16"; Actual: 19.9:”; Error: 3.9”
Knoxville: 2"-5"; Actual: 0.7”; Error: 1.3”
Lexington: 2"-5"; Actual: 3.3”; Within range
Nashville: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0”
New York City: 7"-14"; Actual: 26.9”; Error: 12.9”
Newark: 7"-14"; Actual: 21.3”; Error: 7.3”
Philadelphia: 8"-14"; Actual: 12.0”; Within range
Pittsburgh: 1"-3"; Actual: 2.1”; Within range
Portland: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.8”; Within range
Providence: 7"-14"; Actual: 9.4”; Within range
Richmond: 3"-7"; Actual: 2.2” Error: 0.8”
Washington, DC:
…DCA: 6-12"; Actual: 8.8”; Within range
…IAD: 4"-8"; Actual: 8.1”; Error: 0.1”
Worcester: 6"-12"; Actual: 16.9”; Error: 4.9”