Is this Janurary or June?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS has lowered thier forecast for this Friday to a high of 61 and a low of 36. I still feel that it may be 2-4 degrees colder though...but still any bit of cooler weather is welcomed. A high of 61 would actually be a near normal high (something we havn't seen in a long time).

[Extremeweatherguy]

ALSO...The NWS has issued a 20% chance of RAIN in thier long range forecast for next Monday night and Tuesday! Lets hope we get some!!!

[Air Force Met]

Is there a "conversion" from the expected 850mb temps to surface temps?

For the conversion you have to have a couple if things besides the 850 temp/dewpoint. You have to have the elevation (which for houston is easy) and the sfc pressure in mb. Then the easiest way is to have a blank Skew-T chart. the 12Z 850 temp will usually warm down the dry adiabate line to the sfc and will be your high temp...so 0C at 850 under those conditions leads to about a high in the lower/mid 60's...depending on the actual sfc pressure in mb's. Conversion for the low is difficult because you don't know what kind of inversion you might have (radiation inversion). It might be slight and the 850 temp could be a lot colder than the sfc...or if the air mass is dry enough...it could be massive and the 850 temp could be about the same as the sfc temp with it warming to about 7c or 8C at about 925 mb.

[Air Force Met]

The NWS has lowered thier forecast for this Friday to a high of 61 and a low of 36. I still feel that it may be 2-4 degrees colder though...but still any bit of cooler weather is welcomed. A high of 61 would actually be a near normal high (something we havn't seen in a long time).

I just ran a skew-t loop through the period. The inversion on the GFS isn't that massive, mainly because it's still moist in the lower 100 mb's. The 850 mb temp is slightly below 0C...but the sfc temp is 5C. 36F is a 5F colder than the gfs numbers.

To give you an idea of how saturated it is...the LCL (lifted condenstion level) is down to 900 mbs...which means you only have to lift a parcel of air to 900 mbs before it gets saturated to precip out (not that that will happen). So the air is too moist to set up any kind of super-radiation inversion that will allow the sfc temp to reflect the 850 temp.

So...in order for you to get 2-4 degrees cooler...you are going to need to find some dry air from somewhere. I am not saying it won't happen...but right now the model is forecasting it too moist for it to happen. If there is more dry air than forecast...then yes...it can cool dwon and you can get a setup where your sfc temp matches the 850 temp...but not with the temp/moisture profile that is currrently there and with an LCL that low to the sfc.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

AF Met,

Anything on the horizon that you see that will reverese the pattern of dry and warm weather we've been having accross the state. It's getting old.

[jasons2k]

I'll gladly take some rain - we need it badly - but OH BOY am I enjoying this warm pattern. I spent almost my entire Christmas vacation outdoors and loved every second of it. IMO January can't get much better than this.

[Air Force Met]

AF Met,

Anything on the horizon that you see that will reverese the pattern of dry and warm weather we've been having accross the state. It's getting old.

Not anytime soon. We will have cool downs here and there...but it looks like the zonal pattern is fairly well established for the next couple of weeks with an occasional trough here and there with occasional cool downs to near or slightly below normal temps.

[gboudx]

I'll gladly take some rain - we need it badly - but OH BOY am I enjoying this warm pattern. I spent almost my entire Christmas vacation outdoors and loved every second of it. IMO January can't get much better than this.

If this keeps up, I'll be cutting my grass by month end. I haven't pruned any shrubs or crepe myrtles yet, but I'm worried they may come out of dormacy too soon.

[Miss Mary]

Well, up here I've seen neighbors out raking leaves and doing yardwork. Also cleaning up their lawnmowers, one neighbor had his outside by the garage. I think it was to be picked up for servicing. So yeah at this rate, maybe I need to get mine serviced instead of April when I usually run it in. Who knows what the heck "Winter" will bring this year.

mary

[Air Force Met]

If this keeps up, I'll be cutting my grass by month end. I haven't pruned any shrubs or crepe myrtles yet, but I'm worried they may come out of dormacy too soon.

Yeah. I've been waiting for a good cold snap to tackle my roses but I've still got nice roses on every bush. My Mr. Lincoln is just perfect.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'll be the first to post it for 2006.

Texas Winter - Cancel!

[ETXHAMXYL]

Mowing the lawn? What will there to mow? The grass is so brown and unless we get some rain to make it grow, then I'll have to spray paint my yard green.
Also they are warning people in north texas now to mow the grass without a garden hose handy, since just hitting a rock while mowing can set off a fire.
I hate reading posts from people up north about them getting rain and no snow....I'll take the rain wet or white.
Next thing they will outlaw will be bar-b-q grilling outside. Lord what is this coming too?

[gboudx]

Etxhamxyl, the only reason I will see any green blades of grass in my yard is because I run the sprinklers 1 or 2 times a week. I have about $8,000 worth of landscaping I need to ensure does not get too stressed from lack of water. But don't worry, I follow my area's water restrictions for conservation.

[Portastorm]

Heck, I'm not worried about a cold outbreak. I give up on that. At this point, I'm praying for rain. This state so desperately needs a change in weather pattern.

I was up in Wichita Falls this past weekend and personally witnessed a dust storm and several large wildfires. Scary stuff. In driving up there from Austin and back, you really got the impression that all vegetation is just dry and brown ... like the state is one big tinderbox. So, let it rain ... PLEASE!!

[Kelarie]

Okay, I might be looking at the radar wrong, but is there rain on the radar? In Texas?? Huh? Arrgggh? Anyone else notice anything? Heard anything?

[Extremeweatherguy]

AF Met,

Anything on the horizon that you see that will reverese the pattern of dry and warm weather we've been having accross the state. It's getting old.

Not anytime soon. We will have cool downs here and there...but it looks like the zonal pattern is fairly well established for the next couple of weeks with an occasional trough here and there with occasional cool downs to near or slightly below normal temps.

Im hearing that a neg. NAO is expected to set up by mid month. Wouldn't this allow cold air to drain southward into the U.S?

[Extremeweatherguy]

here is a statement written by Joe Bastardi off of accuweather.com professional. It reflects his ideas on the scenario in the coming days:

Now there is a lot going on. and this is the most challenging overall pattern of the winter. I will be posting later today on that. The ensembles sum it up. There is night and day difference between the Canadian and US models in the day 7-10 period, and low and behold, the new experimental model comes in and backs up the Canadian. With Canada colder next week than it was when this trough came down, that would be a widespread outbreak. I like right now my play on things, drawing a parallel to the November pattern of mild transition, then cold for much of the nation but the stakes are even higher with all the contrast. I get ahead of myself here and will post later on this.[/b]

[jasons2k]

AF Met,

Anything on the horizon that you see that will reverese the pattern of dry and warm weather we've been having accross the state. It's getting old.

Not anytime soon. We will have cool downs here and there...but it looks like the zonal pattern is fairly well established for the next couple of weeks with an occasional trough here and there with occasional cool downs to near or slightly below normal temps.

Im hearing that a neg. NAO is expected to set up by mid month. Wouldn't this allow cold air to drain southward into the U.S?

A Negative NAO is just one of many factors involved. It also has more of an influence on Nor'easters (and their tracks) than it does for weather here in SE TX.

When Joe B. fires off "Negative NAO to bring down big chill" or something to that affect in his column, he is usually talking about the NE US and he usually means more cold air will be available as the storm will likely pull offshore sooner.

Don't get all excited by his last post. Like I said several weeks ago if you put too much stock into Joe B's cold threats, more often than not you will be disappointed. From what I've seen this winter he nailed one outbreak from far away that the NWS missed, but for all the rest he was crying wolf (at least in Texas).

Didn't he say a few weeks ago we'd all be in a deep freeze by now?

[Extremeweatherguy]

LATEST NWS DISCUSSION:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CST WED JAN 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT STARTING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER THE NRN REACHES
OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WARM WITH GLS HITTING
A RECORD MAX ALREADY. STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF JUST AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS
TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED THE NEXT THE SEV-
ERAL DAYS. IN FACT...THE FCST EXPECTED REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN/CLOUD
FREE THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE DEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT (COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE MOUNT-
AIN WEST) TO HELP USHER A LONG FETCH OFF THE NRN PLAINS AND THE EN-
SUING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO BRING A ROUND OF RATHER COOL TEMPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOW ALOFT TO FLATTEN BY THE WEEKEND`S
END AS RETURN SFC WINDS RETURN. HOWEVER...WITH THE MODIFIED AIRMASS
MAKING GOOD HEADWAY INTO THE GULF...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH BY WAY OF
MOISTURE WHEN THE NEXT FRONT/UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS (LATE MON/TUE).
BUT NOT GOING TO QUIBBLE OVER THE 20% POPS ALREADY GRIDDED FOR THIS
EVENT ATTM. WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST. 41

[JonathanBelles]

feels like both 1 day january the next june