First call accumulations and statistics --- SUN-TUE event:

[Colin]

Did you see Gary Grey's discussion? Seems like he's going conservative...

[Stormchaser16]

RNS.... the new Euro tonight shows H85 temps of around 8c for Boston and even Allentown goes over to ALL rain......

[RNS]

Did you see Gary Grey's discussion? Seems like he's going conservative...

when does he ever not...

[Stormchaser16]

LOL that is true. I like the placement of the LP on the euro, however the HP is further east so it helps the LP pump in ALOT of warm air.

[RNS]

RNS.... the new Euro tonight shows H85 temps of around 8c for Boston and even Allentown goes over to ALL rain......

I like the track of the system...i dont think the EC/s temp profiles are corerect given the position of the low.

[RNS]

all the strongest h85 warm advection at day 4 on the EC takes place to the north and east of BOX...

[RNS]

If the EC thermal profiles are correct...Allentown...Scranton...and Albany change over. NOT HAPPENING

[Stormchaser16]

IF the euro's placement of the HP is correct, then its thermal profiles are correct and therefore Allentown, Scranton and Albany changeover.

[RNS]

Ok...well i ask you this...how has the EC preformed with regard to the track of the system thus far???

Oh wait let me answer...POORLY!

I mean c/mon it just caught onto the fact that the secondary would be a coastal low the last umpteen runs had it inland...while the ETA...GFS...GGEM and UKMET have basically been consistent.

[RNS]

In these situations where STJ s/w energy is involved the EC will preform poorly.

[Stormsfury]

Guys, the EC is indicating a Miller A type scenario, something that I don't think is happening (damn 24 hour increments) ... but IMHO, the deepening low does NOT redevelop off the coast, but runs straight thru the Midlands of South Carolina (putting me in the warm sector, something else that I DON'T see happening ...

I've noticed that the trends have been a little weaker with the wedging (not deep into South Carolina and the progged high weaker than last night, but I do not like the overall idea, as I believe it's too aggressive with the coastal trough off my coast.

Secondly, the EURO depicts a hell of a lot of overrunning moisture and even if the departing high idea is correct, there will likely be a lot of in-situ wedging occurring and that low-level cold air will be much more resilient to leave than the models prog.

Just my 0.02¢.

SF

[RNS]

Guys, the EC is indicating a Miller A type scenario, something that I don't think is happening (damn 24 hour increments) ... but IMHO, the deepening low does NOT redevelop off the coast, but runs straight thru the Midlands of South Carolina (putting me in the warm sector, something else that I DON'T see happening ...

I've noticed that the trends have been a little weaker with the wedging (not deep into South Carolina and the progged high weaker than last night, but I do not like the overall idea, as I believe it's too aggressive with the coastal trough off my coast.

Secondly, the EURO depicts a hell of a lot of overrunning moisture and even if the departing high idea is correct, there will likely be a lot of in-situ wedging occurring and that low-level cold air will be much more resilient to leave than the models prog.

Just my 0.02¢.

SF

its sort of a mix between the miller A and B scenarios...but also given what is left of the snowpack across new england the wedge will be much harder to get rid of than if there was no snowcover.

[Stormsfury]

This looks more like my ideas ... and notice the baroclinic zone beginning to take shape off the South Carolina coast at the end of the run ... that IMO, makes much more sense ...

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html

And also, the EURO contradicts itself with the teleconnections on Day 3, showing a modified negative NAO ...

EURO Northern Hemisphere Day 3 500mb Heights

[Stormsfury]

Guys, the EC is indicating a Miller A type scenario, something that I don't think is happening (damn 24 hour increments) ... but IMHO, the deepening low does NOT redevelop off the coast, but runs straight thru the Midlands of South Carolina (putting me in the warm sector, something else that I DON'T see happening ...

I've noticed that the trends have been a little weaker with the wedging (not deep into South Carolina and the progged high weaker than last night, but I do not like the overall idea, as I believe it's too aggressive with the coastal trough off my coast.

Secondly, the EURO depicts a hell of a lot of overrunning moisture and even if the departing high idea is correct, there will likely be a lot of in-situ wedging occurring and that low-level cold air will be much more resilient to leave than the models prog.

Just my 0.02¢.

SF

its sort of a mix between the miller A and B scenarios...but also given what is left of the snowpack across new england the wedge will be much harder to get rid of than if there was no snowcover.

I'll buy that for $$$ ...

[Anonymous]

RNS...............................

What do you think will happen in Woodbridge/Dale City with this next system?

Any realistic chance for snow/ice? Or should we just settle on down for even more torrential rain on top of the 3.7 inches of rain we got last night?



SnowBlitzJEB....We want 36 inches of snow SO BAD!!! Bring It!!!

[RNS]

This looks more like my ideas ... and notice the baroclinic zone beginning to take shape off the South Carolina coast at the end of the run ... that IMO, makes much more sense ...

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html

And also, the EURO contradicts itself with the teleconnections on Day 3, showing a modified negative NAO ...

EURO Northern Hemisphere Day 3 500mb Heights

Thats exactly what the canadian had a few runs ago and is what i believe will mitigate the effect of the ridging in spain. as we can see the western atlantic ridge is showing up centered over hispanolia and the dominican rep. the low across the central atlantic pumps the ridge back toward greenland and will TRY to hold the trough in place near newfoundland. the implication of course would be a slower departing of the SFC high

[RNS]

RNS...............................

What do you think will happen in Woodbridge/Dale City with this next system?

Any realistic chance for snow/ice? Or should we just settle on down for even more torrential rain on top of the 3.7 inches of rain we got last night?



SnowBlitzJEB....We want 36 inches of snow SO BAD!!! Bring It!!!

I cant deliver 36" of snow but i can say some snow to start then you will most likely go to rain. Icing will be a problem up toward DCA and BWI

[Anonymous]

I have another question for you RNS..................

This past year has seen a lot of rain over the Mid Atlantic. The storms we have been getting last fall, last spring, last summer (summer was anything but dry), and this fall have been dumping 1 to 4 inches of rain here. We have seen 70 inches of rain this year so far, with three weeks left in the year. Normal rainfall here in a year is 44 inches.

My question is, Wouldn't you agree, with this pattern in place that tends to set up storms that unload rain in 1 to 4 inch amounts, wouldn't that make a big-time blizzard here in N VA more likely? If we happened to be cold enough for snow and we had the potential for three inches of rain, wouldn't that mean we could possibly see three feet of snow in one storm this winter? Could this winter be THAT TYPE OF WINTER here in the Mid Atlantic?



SnowBlitzJEB

[Guest]

Incorrect assessment RNS. I think your forecast could happen but your views on the ecmwf are not accurate.
6 " for DOVER? on se winds?

NOT....

Ok...well i ask you this...how has the EC preformed with regard to the track of the system thus far???

Oh wait let me answer...POORLY!

I mean c/mon it just caught onto the fact that the secondary would be a coastal low the last umpteen runs had it inland...while the ETA...GFS...GGEM and UKMET have basically been consistent.

[RNS]

I have another question for you RNS..................

This past year has seen a lot of rain over the Mid Atlantic. The storms we have been getting last fall, last spring, last summer (summer was anything but dry), and this fall have been dumping 1 to 4 inches of rain here. We have seen 70 inches of rain this year so far, with three weeks left in the year. Normal rainfall here in a year is 44 inches.

My question is, Wouldn't you agree, with this pattern in place that tends to set up storms that unload rain in 1 to 4 inch amounts, wouldn't that make a big-time blizzard here in N VA more likely? If we happened to be cold enough for snow and we had the potential for three inches of rain, wouldn't that mean we could possibly see three feet of snow in one storm this winter? Could this winter be THAT TYPE OF WINTER here in the Mid Atlantic?



SnowBlitzJEB

I dont know about a three foot storm dude...but the very wet conditions are normally a precursor to increased coastal cyclogenesis (see my winter outlook for more info)...the wetter the pattern in late summer and fall the stronger the correlation...so therefore one would assume that given the correct pattern...storm systems are most likely to take a track up the east coast. the only difference between this year and last is that we will see more dynamically efficient systems and more phasing than last year (which the strong STJ enhanced by the moderate EN prohibited in most instances).

At this point i would say no storm produces more than 24 inches (maximum) in the DC area. and yes the "BIG ONE" cannot be ruled out either but most events will produce accumulations lsss then what i have outlined.