Well...... Aparently it will be snowin in 4 days in San francisco according to these insane gfs runs.Series of Storms to affect the West with more Snow/rain/win
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Metalicwx220
Potential snowstorm in San francisco
Well...... Aparently it will be snowin in 4 days in San francisco according to these insane gfs runs.
Last edited by Metalicwx220 on Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Im not even going to say anything.-
Metalicwx220
120 hours!
144 hours! Dang ECMWF has low after low with all that cold air in place.-
Metalicwx220
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Metalicwx220
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
822 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE
MOSTLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY...AND
GENERALLY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
74 DEGREES AT THE LIVERMORE CLIMATE STATION SET A RECORD FOR THE
DATE. TODAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE LAST DAY OF RECORD WARMTH
THIS MONTH. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
WEST COAST FOR THE PAST SIX WEEKS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WET AND COOL
PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT.
EVENING SATELLITE SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL MAINTAINING OUR DRY
AND MILD WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...EACH ONE BRINGING A COOLER
AIRMASS AND PUSHING RAINFALL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL BE
FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTH BAY...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL
BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTH BAY ON TUESDAY...AND TO THE REST
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLDER SYSTEMS DROPPING
IN FROM THE NNW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN AND DROP SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 2000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL AND AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS FAR AS HAZARDS ARE CONCERNED...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
CHANCE OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINS WITH THESE STORMS NEXT WEEK AND SO
FLOODING THREATS ARE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING OR HAZARDOUS.
Somewhat mentioned snow but I have no idea where 2000 feet is
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
822 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 PM PST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE
MOSTLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF WHAT THEY WERE ON FRIDAY...AND
GENERALLY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
74 DEGREES AT THE LIVERMORE CLIMATE STATION SET A RECORD FOR THE
DATE. TODAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE THE LAST DAY OF RECORD WARMTH
THIS MONTH. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
WEST COAST FOR THE PAST SIX WEEKS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WET AND COOL
PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT.
EVENING SATELLITE SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL MAINTAINING OUR DRY
AND MILD WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK...ALLOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...EACH ONE BRINGING A COOLER
AIRMASS AND PUSHING RAINFALL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL BE
FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTH BAY...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL
BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE NORTH BAY ON TUESDAY...AND TO THE REST
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLDER SYSTEMS DROPPING
IN FROM THE NNW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN AND DROP SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 2000 FEET.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL AND AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS FAR AS HAZARDS ARE CONCERNED...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
CHANCE OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINS WITH THESE STORMS NEXT WEEK AND SO
FLOODING THREATS ARE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY
AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING OR HAZARDOUS.
Somewhat mentioned snow but I have no idea where 2000 feet is
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
It is amazing to think, the NWS has Daly City sitting at 47 degrees Friday (the 18th). The 850mb 0C line is sitting all the way down in LA...that would put LA at about 38 to 40F for the high (from my past experiences), so I'd think, with the 850mb temps being -3C (rough guess off the map), Daly City's highs would be about 30 to 32F...the only exception would be if there is an onshore flow, which I think would cause maritime air to flood SF/DC, causing a shallow warm pocket of air just under the freezing levels.
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Metalicwx220
FXUS66 KMFR 130450
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON.
IT SEEMS LIKE ITS BEEN A MONTH SINCE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WERE
LAST ISSUED FOR OUR AREA...AND IN FACT IT HAS BEEN EXACTLY A
MONTH. THERE WAS A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 60 DEGREES TIED IN
KLAMATH FALLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE QUITE A WHILE BEFORE
THE KLAMATH BASIN REACHES 60 AGAIN.
RAIN HAS REACHED MUCH OF THE OREGON COAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THUS...MOST OF
THE RAIN THAT DOES FALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN WESTERN OREGON NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MONDAY MORNING FRONT WILL PACK THE STRONGEST WINDS
BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND A SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW. DURING MID-WEEK THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO
WHAT IS A MORE TRADITIONAL PATTERN SEEN DURING LA NINA
WINTERS...WITH A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES. THIS NEW PATTERN
MAY PERSIST FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT
WILL RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011/
SHORT TERM...CURRENT VIS IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN
CASCADES. EVEN THEN IT`S EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE DECREASE
WITH MOST ENDING AROUND MIDDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD IS THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THAT
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS INITIALLY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
700 MB WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 50 KTS
AROUND THE SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEY. IN ADDITION THE SURFACE GRADIENT
BETWEEN REDDING AND MEDFORD IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 8 MB BY 12Z
MONDAY AND INCREASING BETWEEN 9 AND 11 MB DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING AND THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN
IN A BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE TO INCLUDE THE ROGUE VALLEY IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN INTO THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AROUND
MIDDAY MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY MORNING START OUT ABOVE ALL PASS
LEVELS MONDAY...THEN SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR OR AT PASS LEVEL AT
SISKIYOU SUMMIT AND OVER HIGHWAY 140 TOWARDS DARK MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOWER MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CENTERED AROUND THE MOUNT SHASTA
REGION...HIGHWAY 140 AND I-5 NEAR SISKIYOU SUMMIT. AT THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOU SUMMIT SHOULD
BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER MOUNT SHASTA COULD HAVE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER TROF REMAINS OFF THE OREGON COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING BETWEEN 2500
AND 3000 FT...BUT COULD LOWER AS LOW AS 2000 FT IN AREAS THAT GET
CAUGHT UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OF THE PACNW COAST LATE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD AIR WILL BRING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SOUTH AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
SHOWERS...HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH EXPECT MOST THE ENERGY TO
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DOWN TO WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS AS COLD AIR MOVES IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VALLEY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THE ECMWF FAVORS A MUCH WEAKER OFFSHORE RIDGE THAN THE GFS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD AND TRENDED TOWARDS GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES.
They surely have been on this.
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON.
IT SEEMS LIKE ITS BEEN A MONTH SINCE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WERE
LAST ISSUED FOR OUR AREA...AND IN FACT IT HAS BEEN EXACTLY A
MONTH. THERE WAS A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 60 DEGREES TIED IN
KLAMATH FALLS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE QUITE A WHILE BEFORE
THE KLAMATH BASIN REACHES 60 AGAIN.
RAIN HAS REACHED MUCH OF THE OREGON COAST WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THUS...MOST OF
THE RAIN THAT DOES FALL ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN WESTERN OREGON NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MONDAY MORNING FRONT WILL PACK THE STRONGEST WINDS
BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND A SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW. DURING MID-WEEK THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO
WHAT IS A MORE TRADITIONAL PATTERN SEEN DURING LA NINA
WINTERS...WITH A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES. THIS NEW PATTERN
MAY PERSIST FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FRONT
WILL RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011/
SHORT TERM...CURRENT VIS IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE AND NORTHERN
CASCADES. EVEN THEN IT`S EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE DECREASE
WITH MOST ENDING AROUND MIDDAY.
THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD IS THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THAT
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS INITIALLY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
700 MB WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 50 KTS
AROUND THE SHASTA AND ROGUE VALLEY. IN ADDITION THE SURFACE GRADIENT
BETWEEN REDDING AND MEDFORD IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 8 MB BY 12Z
MONDAY AND INCREASING BETWEEN 9 AND 11 MB DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING AND THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN
IN A BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE TO INCLUDE THE ROGUE VALLEY IN THE HIGH WIND WATCH.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN INTO THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION AROUND
MIDDAY MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY MORNING START OUT ABOVE ALL PASS
LEVELS MONDAY...THEN SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR OR AT PASS LEVEL AT
SISKIYOU SUMMIT AND OVER HIGHWAY 140 TOWARDS DARK MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOWER MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CENTERED AROUND THE MOUNT SHASTA
REGION...HIGHWAY 140 AND I-5 NEAR SISKIYOU SUMMIT. AT THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOU SUMMIT SHOULD
BE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER MOUNT SHASTA COULD HAVE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER TROF REMAINS OFF THE OREGON COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING BETWEEN 2500
AND 3000 FT...BUT COULD LOWER AS LOW AS 2000 FT IN AREAS THAT GET
CAUGHT UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. PETRUCELLI
LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OF THE PACNW COAST LATE TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COLD AIR WILL BRING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SOUTH AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
SHOWERS...HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH EXPECT MOST THE ENERGY TO
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DOWN TO WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS AS COLD AIR MOVES IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VALLEY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS DIVERGE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THE ECMWF FAVORS A MUCH WEAKER OFFSHORE RIDGE THAN THE GFS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LEANED
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
PERIOD AND TRENDED TOWARDS GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES.
They surely have been on this.
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Metalicwx220
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Metalicwx220
Re:
brunota2003 wrote:It is amazing to think, the NWS has Daly City sitting at 47 degrees Friday (the 18th). The 850mb 0C line is sitting all the way down in LA...that would put LA at about 38 to 40F for the high (from my past experiences), so I'd think, with the 850mb temps being -3C (rough guess off the map), Daly City's highs would be about 30 to 32F...the only exception would be if there is an onshore flow, which I think would cause maritime air to flood SF/DC, causing a shallow warm pocket of air just under the freezing levels.
They are probably being conservative even though clearly they know a pattern change is coming.
0 likes
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Metalicwx220
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BUT STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE QUICKLY DECREASING AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN OREGON SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY LOWERING NEAR CASCADE PASSES TONIGHT
WILL RISE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRUSHING THE COAST WILL KEEP PERIODS OF WIND AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN ACTIVE EVENING ON THE WEATHER DESK AS A SURPRISINGLY
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WERE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN EVEN THE 12Z RUN OF EITHER THE NAM
OR GFS WOULD SUGGEST. NONETHELESS...SOUTH WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH
WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AND VERY EFFICIENT MIXING OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTS UP TO 52 MPH WERE EVEN RECORDED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH
THE STRONGEST GUST RECORDED AT MCNARY FIELD IN SALEM SHORTLY AFTER 3
PM. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ONCE STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOPS WITH THESE
FRONTS...MIXING DECREASED THIS EVENING AND SO WENT THE STRONGEST
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT. LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
A NICE ROPE LINE FEATURE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...GETTING READY TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. SO FAR GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF HAVE NOT BEEN EXCEEDINGLY
STRONG...HAVE BEEN HANDLING IT WITH NOWCASTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS UNDER THE STRONGER PORTION OF THIS LINE COULD
EASILY SEE A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 15-30 MINUTES. WILL
LIKELY CANCEL ALL WIND ADVISORY AND WARNING PRODUCTS PRIOR TO
ISSUANCE OF THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT DOWN TO AROUND THE
CASCADE PASSES...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THE PASSES THEMSELVES WILL PROBABLY ONLY RECEIVE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW AT BEST...BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE AROUND 4000 FT IN SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND 5000 FT IN NORTH OREGON...STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO
RECEIVE A QUICK 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY
MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NEAR THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SUNDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY RACES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER THE BEGINNING STAGES OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW ARE SHOWING ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 35N/140W. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME AGREEING ON WHAT TO DO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOST HAVE SOME
VARIATION OF DEVELOPING IT INTO A STRONG SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRUSH
THE COAST MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...IF IT BRUSHES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...THIS COULD BECOME AN EVEN STRONGER HIGH
WIND EVENT THAN THE ONE WE SAW TODAY. THE SNOW LEVEL THEN DROPS
DRAMATICALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...REACHING INTO THE COAST RANGE
AND CASCADE FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS BY TUESDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...A GOOD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT...THEN SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEFORE IT DIGS SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
THE WHOLE THING MOVES ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS A THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST IS LARGE BROAD BRUSHED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW SNOW
LEVELS FOR NOW. TOLLESON
Well the gfs and nam couldn't predict the winds becuse it says above they were significantly stronger than they suggested. WOW!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BUT STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE QUICKLY DECREASING AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN OREGON SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN
THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY LOWERING NEAR CASCADE PASSES TONIGHT
WILL RISE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRUSHING THE COAST WILL KEEP PERIODS OF WIND AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN ACTIVE EVENING ON THE WEATHER DESK AS A SURPRISINGLY
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
WERE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN EVEN THE 12Z RUN OF EITHER THE NAM
OR GFS WOULD SUGGEST. NONETHELESS...SOUTH WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH
WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AND VERY EFFICIENT MIXING OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTS UP TO 52 MPH WERE EVEN RECORDED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH
THE STRONGEST GUST RECORDED AT MCNARY FIELD IN SALEM SHORTLY AFTER 3
PM. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ONCE STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOPS WITH THESE
FRONTS...MIXING DECREASED THIS EVENING AND SO WENT THE STRONGEST
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT. LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
A NICE ROPE LINE FEATURE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...GETTING READY TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. SO FAR GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF HAVE NOT BEEN EXCEEDINGLY
STRONG...HAVE BEEN HANDLING IT WITH NOWCASTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS UNDER THE STRONGER PORTION OF THIS LINE COULD
EASILY SEE A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 15-30 MINUTES. WILL
LIKELY CANCEL ALL WIND ADVISORY AND WARNING PRODUCTS PRIOR TO
ISSUANCE OF THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT DOWN TO AROUND THE
CASCADE PASSES...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THE PASSES THEMSELVES WILL PROBABLY ONLY RECEIVE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW AT BEST...BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ABOVE AROUND 4000 FT IN SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND 5000 FT IN NORTH OREGON...STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO
RECEIVE A QUICK 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY
MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NEAR THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SUNDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE JET ENERGY RACES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER THE BEGINNING STAGES OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW ARE SHOWING ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 35N/140W. MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME AGREEING ON WHAT TO DO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOST HAVE SOME
VARIATION OF DEVELOPING IT INTO A STRONG SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BRUSH
THE COAST MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...IF IT BRUSHES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...THIS COULD BECOME AN EVEN STRONGER HIGH
WIND EVENT THAN THE ONE WE SAW TODAY. THE SNOW LEVEL THEN DROPS
DRAMATICALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...REACHING INTO THE COAST RANGE
AND CASCADE FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS BY TUESDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...A GOOD SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT...THEN SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATE
AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEFORE IT DIGS SOUTH TOWARD CALIFORNIA AND
THE WHOLE THING MOVES ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS A THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST IS LARGE BROAD BRUSHED WITH SHOWERS AND LOW SNOW
LEVELS FOR NOW. TOLLESON
Well the gfs and nam couldn't predict the winds becuse it says above they were significantly stronger than they suggested. WOW!
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Metalicwx220
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Metalicwx220
Well...... huuuuh. Apparently it will be snowing in 4days in The Angels ( Los angeles)
WOW!! this run is wild and active.-
Metalicwx220
Apparently it will be snowing in 2 days in Seattle and portland with 2-4 inches i guess if im looking at it right.
UUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.... wow
Lets wait and see. wow 72 hours!
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Metalicwx220
NWS Seattle .LONG TERM...A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAC NW FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. A SERIES OF COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. MODELS KEEP THE COLD CONTINENTAL AIR BOTTLED-UP IN INTERIOR B.C. BUT WE MAY SEE SOME FRASER RIVER OUTFLOW THU NIGHT OR FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE EURO KEEPS THE COLD AIR EAST OF THE CREST. SNOW LEVELS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET AGL BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LOWLAND SNOW IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT. THE EXTENDED UW WRF GFS DOES SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AS THE MODELS REMAIN OUT OF PHASE. WILL KEEPS POPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. 33
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Metalicwx220
NWS san francisco SECOND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HIT STARTING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIVES INTO OUR AREA. ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING RAINFALL TO VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THIS EVENT SO POPS WERE PUSHED UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE A BIT MORE OF A WILDCARD WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A FAIRLY GOOD SPREAD. HOWEVER...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IS WE WILL SEE MORE THAN HALF AN INCH FOR ALMOST ALL URBAN SPOTS WITH 1+" VERY LIKELY. HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD EASILY LOCALLY GET 2-3" BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTS INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ARE A GOOD BET ALONG THE COASTLINE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITH 700 MB VALUES COOLING INTO THE -12 TO -15C RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IN TURN WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 2000 FEET IN SPOTS (2000-2250 AROUND SF BAY). THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE
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