Siberian Express January/February 2011

[Jag95]

I might be getting my time frames mixed up, but wasn't 1989 the year when that Gulf low got rolling during the Christmas outbreak, tracked across north FL and dumped about a foot of snow on the Carolinas? I remember it being 17 degrees in the late-afternoon (high 24, low 9) as I was buying last minute Christmas gifts. Once in a lifetime I thought then and I still do. I'm about ready for some of that winter golf weather they were talking like we'd be having here in the SE in January.

[Ntxw]

I might be getting my time frames mixed up, but wasn't 1989 the year when that Gulf low got rolling during the Christmas outbreak, tracked across north FL and dumped about a foot of snow on the Carolinas? I remember it being 17 degrees in the late-afternoon (high 24, low 9) as I was buying last minute Christmas gifts. Once in a lifetime I thought then and I still do. I'm about ready for some of that winter golf weather they were talking like we'd be having here in the SE in January.

I for one never expected this type of cold. I thought the many expert's prediction of a warmer second half of winter would pan out as negative enso's usually do, but mother nature has other plans. It has been warm periodically just not as warm as we are used to in the 90s and 00s, perhaps we should reconsider what a normal winter really is. Maybe this crazy theory of a solar minima relating into colder winters isn't a far fetched as one might think. I blame global warming...jk. JB has frequently howled that a cold PDO that began a few years back would result in a colder cycle beginning around this time moving us into a chillier regime much like the 70s. He might not be as eccentric as many say.

[Texas Snowman]

I might be getting my time frames mixed up, but wasn't 1989 the year when that Gulf low got rolling during the Christmas outbreak, tracked across north FL and dumped about a foot of snow on the Carolinas? I remember it being 17 degrees in the late-afternoon (high 24, low 9) as I was buying last minute Christmas gifts. Once in a lifetime I thought then and I still do. I'm about ready for some of that winter golf weather they were talking like we'd be having here in the SE in January.

I for one never expected this type of cold. I thought the many expert's prediction of a warmer second half of winter would pan out as negative enso's usually do, but mother nature has other plans. Maybe this crazy theory of a solar minima relating into colder winters isn't a far fetched as one might think. I blame global warming...jk. JB has frequently howled that a cold PDO that began a few years back would result in colder cycle beginning around this time moving us into a chiller regime much like the 70s. He might not be as eccentric as many say.

I was thinking about that today...I think he calls it a period of "climatic hardship."

[HeatherAKC]

Jag95 wrote:
I might be getting my time frames mixed up, but wasn't 1989 the year when that Gulf low got rolling during the Christmas outbreak, tracked across north FL and dumped about a foot of snow on the Carolinas? I remember it being 17 degrees in the late-afternoon (high 24, low 9) as I was buying last minute Christmas gifts. Once in a lifetime I thought then and I still do. I'm about ready for some of that winter golf weather they were talking like we'd be having here in the SE in January.

This was the year that there was a high temperature of 0 degrees in my grandmother's town of Charlottesville, VA on this day (and this miami girl was visiting!). My neighbor recorded a low of 25 degrees at her home in Kendall/Miami, FL and my husband talks about being stuck in Jacksonville, Fl during a "snow storm" while driving home from college in NC on that Christmas Eve. Epic! Wonder what this outbreak has instore for South Florida?

[BocaGirl]

Jag95 wrote:
I might be getting my time frames mixed up, but wasn't 1989 the year when that Gulf low got rolling during the Christmas outbreak, tracked across north FL and dumped about a foot of snow on the Carolinas? I remember it being 17 degrees in the late-afternoon (high 24, low 9) as I was buying last minute Christmas gifts. Once in a lifetime I thought then and I still do. I'm about ready for some of that winter golf weather they were talking like we'd be having here in the SE in January.

This was the year that there was a high temperature of 0 degrees in my grandmother's town of Charlottesville, VA on this day (and this miami girl was visiting!). My neighbor recorded a low of 25 degrees at her home in Kendall/Miami, FL and my husband talks about being stuck in Jacksonville, Fl during a "snow storm" while driving home from college in NC on that Christmas Eve. Epic! Wonder what this outbreak has instore for South Florida?

I think I remember that Christmas! I had a house filled with company and FPL subjected us to rolling blackouts to share the electricity. I was trying to cook scrambled eggs and bacon TWICE! and finally dumped both skillets in the garbage.

These past few cold snaps have been really tough on me. I had a few health problems last Spring that have sapped my cold tolerance. It's going to be a long winter, I think.........

BocaGirl
Barbara

[LAwxrgal]

^I remember 1989 as well. I was visiting my aunt's in Convent, LA at the time. I was in the 7th grade. I hadn't even bothered to bring a warm winter coat along because the day before the cold hit it was warm and dry.
That day, the 22nd, the day of my 7th grade Christmas party, is still the coldest day I remember. My mom and I had to ride home in my cousin's little Dodge Colt that was NOT equipped in any way, shape, form or fashion for driving in snow.
Very few people in the Deep South today are adequately prepared for the types of temperatures that are forecast for this time period, especially if this is a prolonged cold snap. My pipes burst LAST year during that major cold snap. And that was with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens. An icing situation would make matters even worse. Please for the love of anything good, any frozen precipitation except ice.
Could any of the more knowledgeable people here tell me why, with this air mass forecast to come down, would any precipitation that falls come in the form of ice instead of sleet or snow?

[Ntxw]

^I remember 1989 as well. I was visiting my aunt's in Convent, LA at the time. I was in the 7th grade. I hadn't even bothered to bring a warm winter coat along because the day before the cold hit it was warm and dry.
That day, the 22nd, the day of my 7th grade Christmas party, is still the coldest day I remember. My mom and I had to ride home in my cousin's little Dodge Colt that was NOT equipped in any way, shape, form or fashion for driving in snow.
Very few people in the Deep South today are adequately prepared for the types of temperatures that are forecast for this time period, especially if this is a prolonged cold snap. My pipes burst LAST year during that major cold snap. And that was with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens. An icing situation would make matters even worse. Please for the love of anything good, any frozen precipitation except ice.
Could any of the more knowledgeable people here tell me why, with this air mass forecast to come down, would any precipitation that falls come in the form of ice instead of sleet or snow?

There's just no way to know at this time. History says air that cold, is shallow and comes quickly therefore ice is a very real possibility if there is precip. But then again climo the past few years tend to favor snow.

[Ivanhater]

I see a lot of guests online tonight. Go ahead and register so you can be part of the discussion.

Ask questions or add any input you have, this is likely going to be a long and possibly historic event.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I remember the '89 cold spell very well. It was that cold spell and 'snowstorm' in houston which made me very interested in the weather. Basically from that day forward i was a fan. I was 5 and remember yelling for my Mom in the night because some 'rocks' ere hitting my window. My mom told me that it was sleet and it was going to snow tomorrow. Low and behold, i still have the picture in my head, the white stuff was everywhere

I wouldnt mind reliving this tale, i am a firm believer of it happening. I know many of you were worried about the GFS losing the system but it seems to be back

[Metalicwx220]

Sorry about that. Anyhow,was not that the case with the storm around christmas. Where they showed it phasing and not phasing.

[m_ru]

Deep freezes are very good for cold hearty trees and plants. Just saying. A beautiful spring awaits.

[Aslkahuna]

I remember 1983 (I was in UT) very well while the 1989 wasn't that bad down here. However, in looking at the runs I experienced dejá vu all over again but not 1983 but January 1962 which featured a 1062.9 mb high in MT. Before it was all over, snow had covered the Central Valley of CA down to Fresno, San Jose CA had 1-2 inches of snow and Willcox, a Cochise County valley town about 100 miles east of Tucson had dropped to -10F as cold air backdoored into AZ.

Steve

[Texas Snowman]

I remember 1983 (I was in UT) very well while the 1989 wasn't that bad down here. However, in looking at the runs I experienced dejá vu all over again but not 1983 but January 1962 which featured a 1062.9 mb high in MT. Before it was all over, snow had covered the Central Valley of CA down to Fresno, San Jose CA had 1-2 inches of snow and Willcox, a Cochise County valley town about 100 miles east of Tucson had dropped to -10F as cold air backdoored into AZ.

Steve

Wow!!! Negative 10 near Tuscon!

Yep, there are certainly other monster cold waves to talk about in light of what MAY happen next week. And that 1962 event was every bit as severe as anything else mentioned today. When it moved across Texas, lows of 13 were recorded in Austin and Del Rio and a low of 10 was recorded at San Antonio.

Another pretty significant arctic invasion was the Jan/Feb 1951 event that brought 108 hours of subfreezing weather to San Antonio and 112 hours in Austin. Lows during that event were 6 in San Antonio; 7 in Austin; and 11 in Del Rio.

BTW, I think the reason that many of us are referencing 1983, 1989, and to a lesser degree, 1996, so much is the fact that those events are the ones that many of us personally experienced.

I was a senior in high school when the Dec. 1983 event hit North Texas; a senior in college when the 1989 event hit; and a married man and new father when the 1996 event hit.

[Portastorm]

For those of you who may gotten "hung up" with the 0z GFS run ... regardless of what the 0z and 6z GFS show for surface depictions ... they still show a 1046-1053mb high in eastern Montana at 240 hrs. Right location for a massive dump of polar air right down the lee of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains.

With some additional snowpack laid down this weekend ... one has to question any moderating effects of that airmass.

Also, as Wxman57 has taught us in seasons past, look carefully at the source regions and 500mb flow in these situations and focus less on surface depictions.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, it becoming rather clear that the cold air is coming and it appears that this will be a long lasting event, compared to a quick shot and warming up. There appears to be multiple reinforcing shots of Arctic Air heading S into the CONUS well into the 15 day time frame beginning later this weekend near the Canadian/US border.

[Tireman4]

Folks, it becoming rather clear that the cold air is coming and it appears that this will be a long lasting event, compared to a quick shot and warming up. There appears to be multiple reinforcing shots of Arctic Air heading S into the CONUS well into the 15 day time frame beginning later this weekend near the Canadian/US border.

Shall we issue a BEAR watch Srain?

[PTPatrick]

1989 was ridiculous indeed. I grew up in more or less on the water on the Gulf coast of Mississippi and it is still coldest I have ever witnessed in that area near that coast. It got to 9 degrees at my folks house, my grandmas pipes froze (thankfully didn't burst) on Christmas eve and it was the first time we ever didn't have Christmas there. My aunt new hattiesburg hit low single digits. I vividly remember bitter wind while my parents frantically tried to wrap pipes and put up wind break around the bottom of our new house, which was built on stilts. That was also the first time I saw flurries. The only other time close to that was a low of 12 in the December 1996 cold outbreak, and January/February 1996 lows around 14 or 15 that year. Since then there have been a few time my folks flirted with upper teens but nothing like what I experienced as a Kid.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The overnight Texas AFD's (at least from a few stations) were very detailed and probably some of the best I've seen in awhile regarding cold weather.

Where is Exterme Weather Guy? Seems like he should be having fun with this one?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

My most visual memory of the 1989 freeze event in the RGV is a vacant citrus packing shed caught fire in my hometown. Drove by the area the following day and it looked like a scene from a fire you'd see in Chicago or any point in the "cold belt" with all the icicles. That and seeing the thermometer hit the upper teens.

[DonWrk]

Question. I know what people are saying on here, and it's a lot of what I want to hear. But for the people who still have their forecasts in the 50's and at most lower 40's, what could they be seeing in the models that is telling them that this isn't going to be what most people on here are speculating?