Mega Nor'easter slams NE States: Web Cams from area posted

[cycloneye]

This is a very interesting discussion by the folks of the Weather Channel of the potential two scenarios that may occur with this mega storm.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2010-12-20

[cycloneye]

Discussion from Wilmington,NC.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
932 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER
AIR BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY AND MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY...BRINGING SNOW INLAND...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
COAST...AND WINDY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ITCHING TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR
THE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM OFF
THE COAST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE SITUATION BUT
STILL TOO EARLY AS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM IS
COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WILL FEEL BETTER WITH
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO INCORPORATE LATEST UPPER AIR DATA THAT IS
LACKING FROM THE PACIFIC THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A BETTER
ANALYSIS DOWNSTREAM. EUROPEAN...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS DO SHOW
THE SYSTEM BOMBING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. MAJOR
QUESTIONS TO ANSWER WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM PULLS ON BY THE COAST
AND WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES IN. RIGHT NOW I AM HEDGING TOWARDS SNOW ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS OF THE CWA TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER
ON THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. I CANNOT RULE OUT ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE COAST AND WILL MENTION SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND HIGHLIGHT IN
THE HWO...NO SURE OF THE AMOUNTS YET. GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED BACK AND
FORTH ON MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT I THINK AS WE GET MORE
ANALYSIS INTO THE MODELS FROM THE WEST COAST SYSTEM THE MODELS WILL
START TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS WELL. I WILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE AND START HEDGING TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LARGE 5H TROF. WITH A DRIER ARCTIC
AIR MASS WE WILL REMAIN DRY BUT COLD...WELL BELOW CLIMO. EXTENDED
MOS NUMBERS AREA RIGHT AROUND 40 AND LIKELY BIAS IN FAVOR OF
CLIMO...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS. WITH US ENTERING THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER WE CAN POSSIBLY GO
DOWN ON RECORD AS THE COLDEST DECEMBER EVER IN WILMINGTON...RIGHT
NOW WE ARE IN THE TOP 3.

[cycloneye]

Tonight's discussion from Boston NWS.They are still in a wait and see phase.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
840 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG OCEAN STORM SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THIS STORM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THU. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
REGION...REMAINS RATHER LOW.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
* WINTER STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT
CHANCE REMAINS LOW
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE U.S. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES WILL BRING A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
CHRISTMASTIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM OVER AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODELS STARTING
TO SIGNAL SOMEWHAT BETTER CONTINUITY IN DIGGING OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WOULD THEN DEEPEN A POSSIBLE SURFACE SYSTEM OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING
AND THE TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE...THE BIGGEST CHANGE NOTED WAS ON THE 12Z
OP GFS RUN AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALL OF
WHICH HAVE MOVED THE SYSTEM FURTHER W FROM ITS LAST TWO RUNS AS WELL
AS CARRYING A DEEPER SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO HAS DEVELOPED A STRONG
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND...DIGGING A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT IN LINE
WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ESPECIALLY AT
THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE
REGION...IT CURRENTLY REMAINS ABOUT 75 NM SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK...WHICH MAKES ITS SOLUTION THE WESTERN OUTLIER. A COUPLE
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ACTUALLY TRACK THE LOW INSIDE THE
BENCHMARK. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW CENTER IS RATHER CLOSE...THOUGH
JUST A BIT OUTSIDE THE OP RUN.

THE GFS CHANGE GIVES CAUSE FOR CONCERN...AS THIS APPEARS TO BE
COMING IN LINE WITH THE STRONGER ECMWF THOUGH THEIR TRACKS ARE FAR
DIFFERENT. THE CANADIAN GGEM REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND TAKES THE LOW
FURTHER SE OF THE BENCHMARK. SO...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR IF THEY CONTINUE TO CHANGE. ONE THING
DOES LOOK RATHER CERTAIN...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT LIKELIHOOD
THAT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ACROSS RI AND E
MA BY LATE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ASPECT WILL
BE WHETHER ENOUGH MILD MARITIME AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM TO BRING A
MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST. ONE OTHER POSSIBLE PROBLEM...THE GFS
SOLUTION SUGGESTS VERY STRONG N-NE WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY TO AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS ACROSS E MA INTO RI...
FROM ABOUT BOSTON TO WESTERLY RI EASTWARD...WHILE KEEPING CHANCE
POPS GOING ELSEWHERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT LEAST.
APPEARS THE LOW WILL MOVE NE DURING MONDAY...SO PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT LEFTOVER SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE ROTATING
AROUND THE STRONG LOW...IF IT DEVELOPS.

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS POINT.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT. EACH MODEL
RUN ITERATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THAT THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CARRYING MAINLY DRY BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. CAN NOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE WIND TRAJECTORY OFF THE
RELATIVELY MILDER OCEAN WATERS.

[brunota2003]

Here's the discussion from Newport/Morehead City, NC:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...THE 64 MILLION $ QUESTIONS ARE WILL IT
SNOW...WHEN AND HOW MUCH??? THE 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF IN FORECASTING A MAJOR EAST
COAST STORM SUNDAY-MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL ORIGINATE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY WITH MOISTURE STREAKING NE INTO NORTH
CAROLINA LATE CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW NW AND
RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE PHASING OF THE JETS AND THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE
CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE NC COAST SUNDAY WITH THE "BOMB" MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST MONDAY. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS OUR PRELIMINARY THINKING IS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF 6+ INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NC ESPECIALLY
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 BEGINNING
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AREAS TO THE EAST
WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE CRYSTAL COAST. THIS IS JUST A
PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT AND THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS OF THIS EVENT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM IS NOW JUST ENTERING THE WEST
COAST AND WILL BE SAMPLED BY THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR RUN WHICH
SHOULD AID THE 00Z MODELS IN REFINING THE FORECAST.

THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL INDICATE A LOW POP
THEN. MONDAY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 20S.

Not often they talk about the possibility for snows of 6+ inches.

[RL3AO]

Could be a historic storm if it takes the right path.

Does bring up thoughts of the '93 super storm.

[cycloneye]

Tonight's discussion from New York NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EST WED DEC 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH AND EAST THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CHRISTMAS EVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT...THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG QUESTION THIS TIME FRAME IS HOW QUICKLY UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND
AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT AND SFC LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH. WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE...WITH A SFC LOW TRACK BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL NEW AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF AND OP GFS. THIS TRACK
HAS SUPPORT FROM MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

BEST GUESS FOR THIS FORECAST IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK THAN OP
ECMWF...AND JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.

NEED TO EMPHASIZE THAT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...AND A SHIFT
EAST OR WEST WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON FORECAST...BUT TIMING IS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN...WITH A DELAY INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SFC LOW INITIALLY SOUTH INTO THE GULF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD A
POSITION OFF THE MID ATLC/SE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DEPENDS
ON AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LAYER POPS FROM HIGHEST S/SE TO
LOWEST N/NW. FWIW...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF
QPF...HIGHEST EAST. NEW OP ECMWF QUITE WET.

FOR NOW WILL CAP POPS IN OUR CWA AT HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPS...COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
BELOW NORMAL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRAVERSE TO THE
EAST WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. WILL END ANY PRECIP
CHANCES BY TUESDAY...AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS continues to track it well east of the big cities on the I-95 corridor.Let's see what the 00z Euro has.

[cycloneye]

As Michael said in the deep south thread,Euro,doesn't have the bomb it had in previous runs,but still has a very strong storm for the NE.Lets see what the 12z package of models bring.

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
910 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

VALID 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 30 2010


...CONTINUED WET ALONG THE WEST COAST...
...WINTER STORM STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUN-MON...

THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING INTENSE POLAR JET
STREAM ARE EXPECTED TO FACILITATES DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
BEFORE REAMPLIFYING TOWARD A TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN/EASTERN CONUS RESPECTIVELY BY DAY 7.

ACROSS THE WEST...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...DETERMINING THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL
EVENTS REMAINS IN QUESTION. SOLUTION SPREAD IS ALREADY ABOVE A
COMFORTABLE LEVEL TO BE PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT ENTERING DAY 3 WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INTENSE SPLIT-TROUGH NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM WHAT CROSSED THE WEST YESTERDAY ENTERING THE
REGION. THE 00-06Z GFS LIE NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH...WHILE ALL OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCKED FLOW DOWNSTREAM
SUGGESTING THAT SLOWER IS BETTER. IN FACT...THE 00Z UKMET WHICH
INDICATES A SEPARATED AND SOMEWHAT MATURE CYCLONE MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE LONGWAVE
FLOW...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN SLIGHTLY WEAKER/FASTER BUT
STILL PLAUSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER
TIMING...WITH NEUTRAL/ZONAL FLOW SPREADING INTO THE ENTIRE WEST
FOR ABOUT 48 HRS BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH
ENTERS THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
REAMPLIFYING TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHWEST BUT OTHERWISE MERGES
NICELY WITH IT BY END OF DAY 7...WITH ALL GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
PHASE WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS. IF THEY ARE CORRECT...THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SNOW STORM FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY DAY 7.

ACROSS THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS SLOWLY NARROWED CONCERNING THE
TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM
AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 3-4. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER
AND EASTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN-MON...WHILE THE GFS HAS
TRENDED FASTER AND WESTWARD...WITH THE 06Z GFS REPRESENTING A
CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND NEARLY OVERLAPS THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MEANS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE
SUFFICIENTLY FAR OUT TO SEA TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER
LAND. GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SUITES AND THAT THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE HAS NARROWED TO ROUGHLY
INCLUDE JUST THESE MODELS IF WE CONSIDER THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS
WELL...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW
JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST...BUT HITS COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
THAT ONLY A SMALL SHIFT IN THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE PROFOUND
INFLUENCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE
EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE
DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL
CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. UNTIL THEN...RECOMMEND
CONSIDERING A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF
ON THE STRONG/WESTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE 00Z GFS ON
THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE.
JAMES

[Nimbus]

Models are coming into consensus for a big storm somewhere along the east coast of the US. Its down to 3 or 4 days out so this may be a major. We might not know the details till the low actually develops off the coast.

The last storm surprised many motorists up in Maine and New Hampshire. They received heavy snow squalls without warning resulting in hundreds of automobile accidents and grid locked traffic.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is too far east for the big cities to get plenty of snow.Let's see what the other models have on their 12z runs.

[srainhoutx]

I'll repost this here...

Just an FYI: There may be a winter RECON mission scheduled for the Gulf (should the short wave drop S) or Atlantic. I'm sure Luis will be monitoring for that information should it be tasked.

[sherry]

I'll repost this here...

Just an FYI: There may be a winter RECON mission scheduled for the Gulf (should the short wave drop S) or Atlantic. I'm sure Luis will be monitoring for that information should it be tasked.

I am just a normal person who is watching this storm to see how much snow we may get. Can you please give a little more info about the short wave drop? If it does drop where would that put the heavy snow fall? I live in Statesville NC which is in the piedmont area.
THanks

[srainhoutx]

I'll repost this here...

Just an FYI: There may be a winter RECON mission scheduled for the Gulf (should the short wave drop S) or Atlantic. I'm sure Luis will be monitoring for that information should it be tasked.

I am just a normal person who is watching this storm to see how much snow we may get. Can you please give a little more info about the short wave drop? If it does drop where would that put the heavy snow fall? I live in Statesville NC which is in the piedmont area.
THanks

sherry, the best thing to do is listen to your local NWS. This is a very complex and difficult forecasting challenge, as you can see. Things are still some what fluid and will likely remain that way until tomorrow as more data is ingested into guidance output for your area. Happy Holidays!

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is a little farther east of the big cities of the I-95 corridor,but not by much from past runs.Is a bit faster on this run than in previous ones.

[cycloneye]

According to HPC,tommorow will be D-Day to definitly have a real consensus on one scenario to another.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
136 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 30 2010


...WINTER STORM STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUN-MON...

IN THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS CONTINUED TO NARROW CONCERNING THE
TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS OF A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE
EAST COAST DAYS 3-4...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE AND CONSISTENT
MODEL TREND OBSERVED FOR FASTER NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION.
EARLIER PREFERENCES WERE FOR A SCENARIO CLOSEST TO THE 06Z GFS
WHICH REPRESENTED AN AVERAGE OF THE MOST WESTWARD 00Z ECMWF AND
MORE EASTWARD 00Z GFS...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
UKMET/CANADIAN SOUTH AND/OR EAST OF AN OTHERWISE NARROWING CLUSTER
OF GUIDANCE AND THUS WERE NOT SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED. DESPITE
IMPROVED CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS AND SOME CONSISTENCY IN
TRENDS...IT REMAINS PREMATURE TO PICK A SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS ONLY RECENTLY ENTERED THE MORE DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL
NETWORK...AND THUS IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE ANOTHER 1 OR 2 MODEL RUNS
AT LEAST TO RESOLVE THE MULTIPLE STREAM INTERACTIONS WHICH IS
CRUCIAL TO A SUCCESSFUL FORECAST IN THIS SHORTWAVE PATTERN.
THUS...THE FINAL PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE ONLY NUDGED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE 06-12Z GFS...WHICH CREDITS THE NEW CONSENSUS FOR A
FASTER SOLUTION WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AS THE PRECISE
TRACK FORECAST STILL CONTAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

JAMES

[cycloneye]

The Boston NWS Discussion is almost locked on a big snow event for a portion of SE New England as they may issue Winter Storm advisories. This storm will be a mega one,but not closer than the March,1993 super storm.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. OUR ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AFTER THIS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TUESDAY...A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD DEVELOP DURING MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS
* POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHRISTMAS NIGHT...WILL NOTE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE TO PERSIST AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA BUT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT IN RECENT RUNS OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.

THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...AND RIDGING OVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THESE TWO SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. INITIALIZATION LOOKED FAIRLY
GOOD EXCEPT THE 00Z GFS HANDLING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW LESS PROGRESSIVE AND ON THE
WESTERN ENVELOPE OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. THE 00Z UKMET AND CANADIAN GGEM
CONTINUE TO TRACK LOW PRESSURE SE OF THE BENCHMARK LATE SUNDAY. THE
00Z AND 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE OFFSHORE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
BECOME MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...TRACKING JUST SE OF THE BENCHMARK
AROUND 00Z MONDAY. IT IS FAIRLY WELL REPRESENTED BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW ABOUT
6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
PHASING ISSUES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET
STREAM. OVERALL DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z HPC/00Z GFS
AND THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 00Z ECMWF. THIS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK POSITION APPROACHING 00Z MONDAY...THEN QUICKLY
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. ATTM THIS APPEARS TO PRIMARILY
BE FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. IT APPEARS THAT EVEN WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW TRACK...THE
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE NEARBY COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION/DEFORMATION ZONE BANDING WILL LIKELY REACH A PORTION
OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED
LIKELY POPS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SE OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS INLAND.
USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST SREF AND MOS GUIDANCE TO DERIVE POPS.

AS MENTIONED STRONG WIND MAY ACCOMPANY PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST AS THE DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM DEEPENS. DID CAP WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF STORM TRACK...BUT AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS
POINT...AS WE ARE STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY FROM THIS POTENTIAL
EVENT. A LOW TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST WOULD CONFINE THE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THREAT TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND A LOW TRACK FURTHER WEST
WOULD BRING THIS THREAT TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND IMPACT...
BUT SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR WINTER STORM WATCHES AND/OR WIND
ADVISORIES/HIGH WIND WATCHES BEING HOISTED THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR
A PORTION OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL AREAL IMPACT...STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO
MULL OVER FUTURE MODEL DATA TO REFINE THE FORECAST...STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BLUSTERY BUT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE TRACKING SE BEHIND THE OCEAN STORM
MAY CAUSE OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CAPE DEPENDING
ON THE WIND TRAJECTORY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A CONTINENTAL/MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS APPROACHING THE
REGION VIA WESTERLY FLOW. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REACHING 40 DEGREES
BY THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Stephanie]

They're still not giving up the possibility in my area:

National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & AdvisoriesLocal weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
One product issued by NWS for: Glassboro NJ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-015>019-021-PAZ067>071-
251000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
403 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT OUR REGION DURING THE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A MARGINAL REDUCTION IN
THE THREAT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND TRACK, BUT THE GREATEST THREAT STILL WOULD BE TO EASTERN
SECTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[srainhoutx]

Didn't see this posted, but it does appear RECON is scheduled...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EST THU 23 DECEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z DECEMBER 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-023

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. A63/ OTTNG/ 25/1200Z
B. AFXXX 04WSA TRACK63
C. 25/0445Z
D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 25/1400Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W/ 26/0000Z
B. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W/ 26/1200Z
JWP

[Stephanie]

Interesting!