Florida winter thread 2010-11

[NDG]

Things are looking better, the gfs has been persistent now for 3 runs in a row now and the euro has 2 runs in a row to where is not as cold as its previous runs for the last 4-5 days. Now that we are 3-4 days of the event, it would be very rare to see them flip back to a colder solution.

[Ntxw]

Not to down downplay for those with economic interests, it will get very cold. It's just signs currently do not show the record shattering temperatures deep into Florida as they were a few days ago. It looks to be similar to the cold snap we just experienced perhaps slightly colder.

[frigidice77]

It seems like whenever an event like snow or cold is approaching it always changes once it heads to my area. The same thing happened when i lived in illinois. A 4-6 inch snow can somehow change to all rain n sleet the next day.

[psyclone]

the nws is forecasting temps several degrees warmer this go around vs last in my area. just for kicks i checked out brooksville too. as of now they are forecasting a min of 28 monday night, the coldest of this upcoming event. for comparative purposes, during this week's event they projected a min there of 21 several days out (20 ultimately verifed so kudos to the folks in ruskin). the point is, as of now they are forecasting this event the be much less severe than this weeks cold outbreak over west central florida. furthermore, a rapid rebound is projected and daytime highs are also expected to be much warmer at this juncture.

[frigidice77]

We are on a definite warming trend now.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like once this trough lifts out next week the jet becomes more zonal and stays less amplified, result should be closer to normal temps across the southern half of the country for awhile.

[kevin]

[Steve H.]

Well, if you are going with the GFS, which shows a much more progressive solution, we will not get as cold for Sunday night and monday. But with some blocking in place, the HPC is discounting the GFS solution, and going with the ECM ensembles and the UKMET, which show a more slower and southerly low pressure system, and the GFS as the outlier. Time will tell though, but I believe that Monday will be below freezing in central Florida, which will put the citrus crop at riskk.

[Ntxw]

Well, if you are going with the GFS, which shows a much more progressive solution, we will not get as cold for Sunday night and monday. But with some blocking in place, the HPC is discounting the GFS solution, and going with the ECM ensembles and the UKMET, which show a more slower and southerly low pressure system, and the GFS as the outlier. Time will tell though, but I believe that Monday will be below freezing in central Florida, which will put the citrus crop at riskk.

The UKMET and ECMWF Ensembles only vary in the fact they do not swing the storm through the Great Lakes but rather Ohio Valley. The variances has implications for midwest and northeast corridor as to what the HPC is providing differences for, neither of which is south enough to significantly change the forecast in the deep south. None of the models or ensembles really show end all record cold into Florida. Cold yes, precautions as usual should be taking place, but it should be very similar to the recent freeze.

[NDG]

Well, if you are going with the GFS, which shows a much more progressive solution, we will not get as cold for Sunday night and monday. But with some blocking in place, the HPC is discounting the GFS solution, and going with the ECM ensembles and the UKMET, which show a more slower and southerly low pressure system, and the GFS as the outlier. Time will tell though, but I believe that Monday will be below freezing in central Florida, which will put the citrus crop at riskk.

Last night's euro is now slightly warmer than the GFS. I would say that the euro has been the outlier all along when it was calling for upper teens low 20s to make it to central FL's orange growing areas at one time a few days ago.

[psyclone]

FWIW, the nws has dropped the forecast mins vs what was forecast last night but they are still warmer than the last cold snap. one thing that has remained a constant is the projection of a rapid rebound. so cold weather haters just need to hibernate until thursday...

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS MOS low temperature output for Orlando, FL next week..

Mon. morning = 35F
Tues. morning = 28F
Wed. morning = 33F

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z ECMWF is showing 3 back-to-back freezes in Orlando (MCO) next week. None of them are in the "extreme" category (i.e. challenging all-time records), but this would still be pretty impressive if it plays out..

TUES. Morning = 30.3F

WED. Morning = 27.5F

THUR. Morning = 31.8F

With 1 freeze already in the books for the month, this would make 4 total freezes pre-Christmas at MCO if the ECMWF proves correct. Even if just one of the above freezes verifies though, then that would still be significant. To put this in perspective, up until this past week, the last time Orlando experienced a freeze during the month of December was a decade ago, back in the year 2000. During that December, two freezes were recorded at MCO during the month (Dec. 20th and Dec. 31st). If Orlando can manage to see another freeze next week, then it will tie that year; and if Orlando sees more than one freeze next week, then it would likely be the first time since December 1989.


UPDATE: The GFS is a little warmer than the ECMWF, only showing 1 freeze for MCO next week (28.9F on TUES. Morning).

[gatorcane]

the nws is forecasting temps several degrees warmer this go around vs last in my area. just for kicks i checked out brooksville too. as of now they are forecasting a min of 28 monday night, the coldest of this upcoming event. for comparative purposes, during this week's event they projected a min there of 21 several days out (20 ultimately verifed so kudos to the folks in ruskin). the point is, as of now they are forecasting this event the be much less severe than this weeks cold outbreak over west central florida. furthermore, a rapid rebound is projected and daytime highs are also expected to be much warmer at this juncture.

Freeze expected into Northern Pinellas now and interesting snippet from NWS Tampa

Point forecast for Palm Harbor:
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31. North northwest wind between 11 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ONTO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS WILL FALL FROM THE
BASE OF THE CLOUD AS SNOW...BUT WITH 2500 TO 3000 FEET OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE BASE OF THE CLOUDS AND THE
GROUND...THINK JUST COLD RAIN DROPS WILL RESULT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[psyclone]

low temp estimates have again been adjusted downward and are now on par with the prior freeze event.

[Extremeweatherguy]

A comparison of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for next week in Orlando, FL (MCO):

*values at or below 32F highlighted in blue*

7am MON morning
GFS = 36.1F
ECMWF = 38.1F

7am TUES morning
GFS = 27.3F
ECMWF = 29.7F

7am WED morning
GFS = 33.1F
ECMWF = 29.1F

7am THUR morning
GFS = 41.5F
ECMWF = 31.3F

7am FRI morning
GFS = 57.4F
ECMWF = 37.4F

[psyclone]

things have definitely been trending the wrong way for awile now. 31 does show in my grid now but lots of mid to upper 20's are now showing away from the immediate coast even in the MIA CWA. this could be a hard hit for ag interests even into south florida. and Ruskin has a 17 on the map near bronson in levy county. ouch! I think the biggest threat in my immediate area is a fishkill since the water is already cold. a light freeze won't hurt us too bad...most of our super sensitive vegetation was killed off last year.

[gatorcane]

12z ecmwf showing yet another sharp trough developing over the eastern conus at 168 hours. Gfs not showing this so will be interesting to see if the gfs starts picking up on this.

[frigidice77]

Will it be more intense than the current one?

[gatorcane]

18z gfs now joining the ecmwf in bringing yet another plunge of cold air (arctic ?) into the deep south early to mid next week. The freezing line does not make it into Florida on this run though, but misses just to the north. Right now looks like it will not be as cold as this weeks but we are talking 10-12 days out so subject to change.



Ecmwf 216 hours:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0121112!!/