Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

The 12z Euro run for the last two days has shown the development of a major cold trough near the end of its run. However, the 0z Euro has not shown anything like that nor does the GFS. Perhaps that is what LC is keying on ... that and using his 30-plus years as a pro met!

It does seem improbable to this amateur eye but I also have come to respect LC and his forecasts. Seems reasonable to think we'll go zonal for a period of a week or two followed by another pattern change back to the current one.

Both the EURO and the Ensembles are transferring the energy from the northern system to the southern system(the one over northern Texas) for Thursday-Friday-Saturday. This is in contrast as to what the models have been showing for most of the week. This should bring about a severe weather(Large Hail and strong winds)-flooding threat to the Eastern third of Texas Thursday-Friday, with a somewhat more cooler-windier Halloween than previously forecast.
BTW, I really like how the Penn State Wall site includes hrs 0-72 on their EURO model. Most of the other free sites don't show those parameters for some reason.

EURO-Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gado

mski/ewallmref.html

Yeah, the NWS FTW has bit on the cooler Halloweeen as well, so this looks like a wait and see forecast.

[gboudx]

Yeah, the NWS FTW has bit on the cooler Halloweeen as well, so this looks like a wait and see forecast.

Yep. Earlier in the week the highs were in the mid-70s. Now in the upper 60's. But, that seems to be the pattern this Fall. I've noticed that that forecasted temps beyond 3-4 days seem to trend cooler as those days get closer. And also, the forecasted weather beyond that timeframe seems to change as well.

My yard feels like a sponge to walk on. Tonight and tomorrow aren't going to help it.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, the NWS FTW has bit on the cooler Halloweeen as well, so this looks like a wait and see forecast.

Yep. Earlier in the week the highs were in the mid-70s. Now in the upper 60's. But, that seems to be the pattern this Fall. I've noticed that that forecasted temps beyond 3-4 days seem to trend cooler as those days get closer. And also, the forecasted weather beyond that timeframe seems to change as well.

My yard feels like a sponge to walk on. Tonight and tomorrow aren't going to help it.

Same here in Austin. Temps are trending slightly downward for the weekend.

[snow and ice]

Not any winter weather on the horizon, but Eastern Texas and NW Louisiana is experiencing a fairly significant Tornado outbreak. Shreveport has been hit particularly hard as has several small east Texas communities. This is fairly typical in the fall with El Nino's.

[gboudx]

Larry Cosgrove's Winter Outlook.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

[Portastorm]

Larry Cosgrove's Winter Outlook.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

Thanks for pointing this out. Hadn't seen it yet.

Seems like LC's forecast is consistent with many others and the potential for a real winter for many of us as compared to the last few years. I wish, however, he would have done some maps to spell out his forecast. The associated graphics supporting his analogs are good but it's always nice to see a map for each month.

[CaptinCrunch]

Happy Halloween Charlie Brown....lol

Well here the early Outlook for NTX,

Highs will be in the mid to upper 60's with Trick or Treat low's in the lower to mid 40's. Halloween 2009 will the first Halloween in 3 yrs to avg below normal, so guess what that means, yep you guess it, Winter 2009/2010 will avg below normal for temps, and since we are in a El Nino year we'll see above avg precip all winter. Now I'm saying we are going to see a 77/78 winter repete, but I do see this winter being one that can bring a much better than avg chance for sonw and ice over the Late November thru early March time frame.

I have my winter forecast out by mid week if all goes well, till then I'm out to gather firewood while it's dry (stock up now!!)

[Portastorm]

Alright Captin!

I've been waiting to see how your North Texas Halloween Analog would shake out this year and your subsequent forecast. Good luck on your forecast and I hope you're correct!

[Portastorm]

Looks like a fabulous weather week ahead for most of Texas with seasonal daytime highs, lots of sunshine, and cool nighttime low temps. The GFS for the last several runs is suggesting a pattern change around Nov. 11-13th time frame with a large, cold trough developing over the Great Lake and Eastern U.S.

I have no scientific reasoning to say that, only anecdotal background, but I believe we'll see a change to colder, stormier weather for us in Texas probably around the Nov. 15-20th time frame which will finish out the month.

Meanwhile, Portastorm spent the weekend rummaging through his closet looking for his kicking shoes.

[CaptinCrunch]

Alright Captin!

I've been waiting to see how your North Texas Halloween Analog would shake out this year and your subsequent forecast. Good luck on your forecast and I hope you're correct!

October 31, 2009........H/74.....L/41......avg/58..... -3 below avg

October closed out at -4.5 below the monthly avg for temps (second month in a row for below avg monthly temps) and +3.98 above for precip (October was the 6th wettest on record @ 8.05" recorded at DFW Airport)(I had almost 13" at the house in sourthern Tarrant Co) on a side note October was the cloudiest on record.

In one for the books, last month was the sixth-wettest October on record, with more than 8 inches of rain measured at Dallas/Fort Worth Airport.

The month marked a big change from the way the region began the year, said Dan Huckaby, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office.

"A year ago we were talking about the prospects for drought, and now we’re talking about the opposite," he said.

Dallas-Fort Worth has not received this much rain in October since 1994, when 8.19 inches fell, according to the weather service. It is too early to tell whether this October is similar to 1991, when the third-wettest October preceded an El Niño weather pattern that brought intense flooding in December.

[rainman31]

Above average temps here in Denton until Saturday, when a front looks like it will drop high temps into the mid 60's and low in the low 50's. I'm ready for an artic blast.

[snow and ice]

Above average temps here in Denton until Saturday, when a front looks like it will drop high temps into the mid 60's and low in the low 50's. I'm ready for an artic blast.

At this point, it is not looking good for arctic air to invade this part of the country for atleast the next couple weeks. All the models have looked zonal in the long range for the past week. However, the 12Z EURO carves a big trough in the western states-rockies this weekend into early next week. Having said that, the model never progresses the trough out into the southern plains. Based on the positioning of the trough, most of Texas would be in far another heavy rain-severe weather threat, which is typical in El-Nino years.

12ZEURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9100412!!/

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Any signs that we will see any wintery precip on Thanksgiving? I can remember a few icy Thanksgivings in the past.

[snow and ice]

Looks like another week of zonal flow. Then, after that, there looks to be a change to a more stormy pattern. The storm early next week looks eerily similar to the one last week that brought the Tornado outbreak to eastern Texas and western Louisiana. That is something that will have to be watched as it gets closer. The afternoon runs of the models even show a chance of snow with the storm over Oklahoma and Kansas, mostly because of strong upper level support.

18z GFS @ 138hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

[Portastorm]

Not much to add here to snow and ice's spot-on post ... but both the GFS and the Euro for the last two days have definitely shown a pattern switch to stormier and (possibly) colder for the Southern Plains/Texas starting the weekend before Thanksgiving. Something to watch.

[srainhoutx]

Appears the models are having issues with the Polar Vortex over AK. What I find interesting is where the PV is located. There are hints that the PV may shift abit E over time allowing for some much colder air to enter North America toward the end of November translating to stronger Artic type fronts in early December. We shall see. With such strong MJO Pulse headed E, one has to wonder how/when the guidance will finally latch on to a final solution.

[snow and ice]

Appears the models are having issues with the Polar Vortex over AK. What I find interesting is where the PV is located. There are hints that the PV may shift abit E over time allowing for some much colder air to enter North America toward the end of November translating to stronger Artic type fronts in early December. We shall see. With such strong MJO Pulse headed E, one has to wonder how/when the guidance will finally latch on to a final solution.

I think you're spot on with your analysis. As long as the vortex is over Alaska, the lower 48 and a lot of Canada will be not be seeing any arctic air. Looks like a transitional period will begin around Thanksgiving week. The Ensembles are forecasting a ridge to begin popping up a long the west coast, with a trough centered over the central and southern plains. This will probably translate to a stormy period for Texas. Initially, as severe weather and heavy rains, followed by somewhat colder weather. However, it looks like it will be the first to the middle of December before any true arctic air is able to reach the southern plains. However, climatology suggest with this type of pattern in late November-early December, that the southern and central plains can receive a lot snow, particularly from Central and Northern Oklahoma into Kansas.

The Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f288.html

[WhiteShirt]

Do the models show if Thanksgiving will be cold in the Houston area? I know it's a long way off, but just hoping the answer is yes.

[CaptinCrunch]

Do the models show if Thanksgiving will be cold in the Houston area? I know it's a long way off, but just hoping the answer is yes.

Thanksgiving for you will be seasonal for late November, sorry

[srainhoutx]

Do the models show if Thanksgiving will be cold in the Houston area? I know it's a long way off, but just hoping the answer is yes.

GFS is showing a cold front arriving on Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving. Guidance suggests it may not clear after fropa, but this is very speculative this far in advance. Perhaps by late next week we will see guidance begin to latch onto a solution, but I would not bet the farm on it yet. There is too many feedback issues going on with all guidance right now even with a 3-5 day period and with the setup mentioned in my previous post. There are some "hints" that we are moving closer to a more active pattern in the next couple of weeks IMHO though.