Texas Winter 2025-2026

[opticsguy]

NAM: Go to sleet. Go directly to sleet. Do not pass "snow". Do not collect snow shovel.

At least for DFW

[Gotwood]

MJO has crossed into P7, it will slow and loop a bit, which is why we're looking at another reinforcing cold shot late next week. Looks like after a quick passage of 8 it will go into P1-2.

https://i.imgur.com/GtEBYwZ.png

Get it to P2 in Nina February.

https://i.imgur.com/R7VTEQj.png

My body is ready my electricity meter isn’t lol.

[CaptinCrunch]

Timing of surface front is faster that forecast, The surface front went through Broken Bow NE @ 1:53pm with a N wind 8 mph gusting to 20 mph, @ 2:53pm winds were N @ 16 mph with a temp of 30F at the regional airport.

Calculating the distance to the Air port from our office building in DT FTW is 550 miles / 20 mph frontal movement = 27.5 hrs till it impacts DT FTW.

That puts the surface front into DFW by 7:30pm Friday followed by the arctic wall and the white walkers @ 9:30pm. Which means we could be seeing the onset of FR precip before midnight.

So there's' that......

[LearnedHat]

Timing of surface front is faster that forecast, The surface front went through Broken Bow NE @ 1:53pm with a N wind 8 mph gusting to 20 mph, @ 2:53pm winds were N @ 16 mph with a temp of 30F at the regional airport.

Calculating the distance to the Air port from our office building in DT FTW is 550 miles / 20 mph frontal movement = 27.5 hrs till it impacts DT FTW.

That puts the surface front into DFW by 7:30pm Friday followed by the arctic wall and the white walkers @ 9:30pm. Which means we could be seeing the onset of FR precip before midnight.

So there's' that......

Do these air masses usually gain or lose speed as they go?

[gpsnowman]

https://youtu.be/J3u3731eGTM?si=5bg8hC7ygXLB3bPe
It's go time folks

[CaptinCrunch]

Timing of surface front is faster that forecast, The surface front went through Broken Bow NE @ 1:53pm with a N wind 8 mph gusting to 20 mph, @ 2:53pm winds were N @ 16 mph with a temp of 30F at the regional airport.

Calculating the distance to the Air port from our office building in DT FTW is 550 miles / 20 mph frontal movement = 27.5 hrs till it impacts DT FTW.

That puts the surface front into DFW by 7:30pm Friday followed by the arctic wall and the white walkers @ 9:30pm. Which means we could be seeing the onset of FR precip before midnight.

So there's' that......

Do these air masses usually gain or lose speed as they go?

could be a little of both when factoring in the topography of the land

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah ignoring snow and ice, get DFW into single digits and it's etched in analogs forever up here in terms of Arctic blasts.

At what point do we consider the possibility of a prolonged freezing event here? I mean the GFS has been kinda hinting at it some. This 12z run is absolutely wild temps not getting above 35 until Feb 5th for Metroplex?

It could extend through to mid Feb not the subfreezing but well below normal. Not a full calendar month but I would not be shocked if 3-4 weeks of sub 40F average which we haven't done since 2000. Sub-40F are the legendary cold months of old 1978, 1983, 1985, 1989 etc.

How does the extended freeze change calculations for mid-February cold if we don't warm up? Does it make any difference even?

[Ntxw]

We are getting closer with the GFS (for a Sunday snow day) just trend it a little more south and east.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS us a lot more aggressive with freezing rain in the houston metro, yikes

[Ntxw]

How does the extended freeze change calculations for mid-February cold if we don't warm up? Does it make any difference even?

I don't think so. But if lower heights prevail in the upcoming pattern, and surface already cold probably easier to have all snow events.

[CaptinCrunch]

We are getting closer with the GFS (for a Sunday snow day) just trend it a little more south and east.

https://i.imgur.com/DlOza07.gif

I thing it will trend in that direction, will not be surprised for tomorrow morning models showing a slightly further south bulls eye.

[LearnedHat]

We are getting closer with the GFS (for a Sunday snow day) just trend it a little more south and east.

https://i.imgur.com/DlOza07.gif

I thing it will trend in that direction, will not be surprised for tomorrow morning models showing a slightly further south bulls eye.

Is the trajectory of the moisture changing or is it still the timing of the Arctic front?

[downsouthman1]

We are getting closer with the GFS (for a Sunday snow day) just trend it a little more south and east.

https://i.imgur.com/DlOza07.gif

I thing it will trend in that direction, will not be surprised for tomorrow morning models showing a slightly further south bulls eye.

Is the trajectory of the moisture changing or is it still the timing of the Arctic front?

Everything is changing all the time.

[LearnedHat]

I thing it will trend in that direction, will not be surprised for tomorrow morning models showing a slightly further south bulls eye.

Is the trajectory of the moisture changing or is it still the timing of the Arctic front?

Everything is changing all the time.

I understand, just wondering about the primary catalyst bringing about the Captin's thoughts on changing model outputs.

[txtwister78]

You can definitely see where these trends are headed with Euro likely late to the party regarding surface temps as usual.

Unfortunately not great news for SA metro.

[emings]

I thing it will trend in that direction, will not be surprised for tomorrow morning models showing a slightly further south bulls eye.

Is the trajectory of the moisture changing or is it still the timing of the Arctic front?

Everything is changing all the time.

Changed from this morning that's for sure

[txtwister78]

[UTSARoadrunner4]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/austin/frzr_total/1769104800/1769342400-7YVwDWYFCqU.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/austin/frzr_total/1769104800/1769396400-8Hq7caOtU9M.png

OOHHHH NOOOOO!!!

Good thing TXDOT is already out spraying roads around San Antonio.

[hurricane2025]

Gfs isn’t budging

[rwfromkansas]

The FWD experimental forecast went from 1 to 2 for snow, so that's something. Not the same as the main page official one (though it seems to basically match it well at this time).