Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

Lmao the TV met is absolutely and completely done with this storm... Said flat out its about the worst setup he's ever seen because there's no cold air yet again as has been the story most of the winter his model is showing us in the 40s at the peak of the storm

I feel him... I'm just over it. I'm about over the whole winter at this point

[Stratton23]

The pacific jet/ MJO not cooperating has pretty much marked the death of this winter, unless something drastic changes, we are done, time to set the AC to 60 F for the next 6-8 months lol

[Ralph's Weather]

RAP blasts a swath through NW TX and OK with over a foot with max near OKC of over 2 feet Kuchera and over 3 feet 10:1. Obviously this is likely overdone but these type systems can absolutely dump snow. Someone north of a Lubbock to Wichita Falls to Tulsa line should approach a foot of wet snow from this.

[Ralph's Weather]

All of these storms have been dumping huge snows in the northern NM mountains. Between last weekend and the upcoming storm, high elevations will see 40 to 60 inches in a weeks time.

[Brent]

RAP blasts a swath through NW TX and OK with over a foot with max near OKC of over 2 feet Kuchera and over 3 feet 10:1. Obviously this is likely overdone but these type systems can absolutely dump snow. Someone north of a Lubbock to Wichita Falls to Tulsa line should approach a foot of wet snow from this.

Ha I wish

[Ralph's Weather]

RAP blasts a swath through NW TX and OK with over a foot with max near OKC of over 2 feet Kuchera and over 3 feet 10:1. Obviously this is likely overdone but these type systems can absolutely dump snow. Someone north of a Lubbock to Wichita Falls to Tulsa line should approach a foot of wet snow from this.

Ha I wish

Admittedly that someone will likely be in the Amarillo to Childress to OKC triangle.

[Cpv17]

We’re about to transition into a La Niña, probably by mid to late summer, which will make next winter a first year La Niña and that has my attention. I’ve been saying all winter long that I’m looking more forward to next winter than this one.

[Stratton23]

Lol euro casually bringing a lobe of the TPV down to the central canada/ us border, if only….

[Iceresistance]

RAP blasts a swath through NW TX and OK with over a foot with max near OKC of over 2 feet Kuchera and over 3 feet 10:1. Obviously this is likely overdone but these type systems can absolutely dump snow. Someone north of a Lubbock to Wichita Falls to Tulsa line should approach a foot of wet snow from this.

Ha I wish

Admittedly that someone will likely be in the Amarillo to Childress to OKC triangle.

Don't forget along and south of I-44 for a secondary bullseye

[Brent]

I have no clue what to expect here. I literally don't think anything would surprise me after the way this winter and last winter has been here. Nothing or a foot

I mean yeah there is a signal around 44 for heavier totals but that can still change at this rate. I just don't know

Bring on La Nina I guess

[Iceresistance]

Good lord!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCrSN.gif

[Brent]

Good lord!

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCrSN.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCrSN.gif

What is happening for days the GFS has been like blah it's not going to snow and now this

[rwfromkansas]

We’re about to transition into a La Niña, probably by mid to late summer, which will make next winter a first year La Niña and that has my attention. I’ve been saying all winter long that I’m looking more forward to next winter than this one.

Except this was the El Niño that wasn’t, so hard to say it will be the first one.

[Stratton23]

The MJO is finally cooperating and has moved into phase 8 , and now looks like it is going to swing through phases 1/2 over the next couple of weeks, if only that pacific jet wasn’t being a thorn in the side, so frustrating lol

[DukeMu]

We might get a frost Monday night out of the front in CLL. That's about it. The fun appears to be limited to north Texas and the panhandle. There's way too much brown to the Canadian border this year. Climo's about to take a hand.

Just hoping for a cool Spring and summer. I can't afford those A/C bills!

[Ntxw]

And we think we got the forecast down?



The coming -EPO block is no joke.

[Ntxw]

[Stratton23]

NTWX I dont think any of the guidance has a good handle on the pattern at all, trying to shove the arctic jet west towards the pacific, doesnt make any sense to me at all, im seeing some pretty contradictory signals in the guidance, MJO now in phase 8, that pacific jet is causing a lot of problems with guidance

[Ntxw]

Just to recapture some thoughts. Many of us felt that after mid-February the pattern would turn colder. As we are approaching this period (not yet there) the models have quietly surfaced a cold air source. The delivery mechanism isn't there yet, but then not long ago a cold air source wasn't either but now is. We're only as good as the models are able to get the pattern right.

[Ntxw]

And there goes the 12z Euro delivering it.