Texas Winter 2013-2014

[JDawg512]

I'm not much of a cold weather person myself mostly due to the plants I grow which do not like extremely cold weather. What I am hoping for is a return to a wetter and unstable pattern. Despite the flooding rains we received in Austin in October, the lakes really didn't see much in runoff. We need more rain making systems and we need them badly. I could care less if we see any more freezing weather as long as we can get some beneficial rainfall. Of course CPC, continues to be cruel to us as far as precipitation though I have lost some confidence in their forecasts over the last 5 months.

[somethingfunny]

I'm having a hard time buying the idea of the cold air retrograding westward once it spills into the Northeast given how progressive we've been this winter. I know there's some signs of blocking setting up but I'm in the "believe it when I see it" camp.

[wxman57]

Hey wxman57, do you have access to those GFS temperature charts outside of Texas? Say in AL or GA? There's talk of it possibly being colder than Jan 6-8th here(which was the coldest since 1996 here)

Alabama is a bit vague as far as your location. What city? The GFS is global. I can make one for any location in the world.

It's getting awfully quiet around here. That's generally good news for me. Don't tell me the GFS has backed off on the cold air push into Texas and now agrees with the Euro. Here's to a ++WSI in the coming weeks...

[gatorcane]

Quiet because the past several GFS shows the same story the next 16 days...with a trough in the east and ridge out west except it seems it's trending towards a less amplified Eastern CONUS trough. The ECMWF shows all the really cold air staying way to the north over the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast the through 168 hours.

[srainhoutx]

It's getting awfully quiet around here. That's generally good news for me. Don't tell me the GFS has backed off on the cold air push into Texas and now agrees with the Euro. Here's to a ++WSI in the coming weeks...

Who cares about cold. We need rain. Rain all the way across Texas from N to S and W to E. The dried up previously frozen vegetation has fully cured. A blustery dry 'cold front' with all this dry fuel spells trouble for wild fire growth.

[Portastorm]

It's getting awfully quiet around here. That's generally good news for me. Don't tell me the GFS has backed off on the cold air push into Texas and now agrees with the Euro. Here's to a ++WSI in the coming weeks...

Who cares about cold. We need rain. Rain all the way across Texas from N to S and W to E. The dried up previously frozen vegetation has fully cured. A blustery dry 'cold front' with all this dry fuel spells trouble for wild fire growth.

Here! Here! Wxman57, if you're going to commandeer the winter season for ... I dont know, like the 27th winter in a row ... the least you could do is provide us some rainfall with all of this heat and warm weather!

Meanwhile for my fellow teleconnection indices watchers, what does a -EPO/-PNA pattern do for us, because that's what it looks like we'll have going into February.

[Ntxw]

I'm having a hard time buying the idea of the cold air retrograding westward once it spills into the Northeast given how progressive we've been this winter. I know there's some signs of blocking setting up but I'm in the "believe it when I see it" camp.

It's the nature of the season. Cold and troughs start out west early in the winter and slowly migrate east with January often being the pinnacle for the eastern 3rd of the country. January for us is often dry and chilly then thaw. Then the pattern slowly migrates back west until late Feb. The big western outbreaks are in February and late November while the big eastern outbreaks are in January. For us late December and early February is the "between" time, it's not a sure thing but this is the idea over the years if you follow weather intently. Maybe I'm wrong, but I still have wxman57 down as the Feb 1899 camp since he believes the second week of Feb will be it

What's this about a ++WSI? This must be a forecast out 90 days away.

Meanwhile for my fellow teleconnection indices watchers, what does a -EPO/-PNA pattern do for us, because that's what it looks like we'll have going into February.

A -EPO/-PNA combo is the ideal indexes we want. We want storms to dig out west and kick out in the plains -PNA and the -EPO provides cold, the combo we saw early Dec. That's the SW storm+arctic high look. What we don't want is a +EPO/-PNA that's the torch.

[Portastorm]

Thanks Ntxw. That's good stuff! With the GFS operational runs showing the cold anomalies re-loading in the source regions in a big way ... and forecasts of a cold, deep trough to develop out west and eventually migrate east ... it does look encouraging for us as we move into February.

Those few teases of Greenland blocking on several GFS op runs had me thinking that our ticket to winter fun would be a retrogression of the pattern. On the contrary, that doesn't appear likely but our ticket may still be punched by what develops out west and north.

Even for this experienced Texas winter weather watcher, I've learned quite a bit this winter season. Been very educational.

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow:

Thanks Ntxw. That's good stuff! With the GFS operational runs showing the cold anomalies re-loading in the source regions in a big way ... and forecasts of a cold, deep trough to develop out west and eventually migrate east ... it does look encouraging for us as we move into February.

Those few teases of Greenland blocking on several GFS op runs had me thinking that our ticket to winter fun would be a retrogression of the pattern. On the contrary, that doesn't appear likely but our ticket may still be punched by what develops out west and north.

Even for this experienced Texas winter weather watcher, I've learned quite a bit this winter season. Been very educational.

Also remember how positive the AO was during the mid November to late December time frame. The AO was near +3.5 to +4. The teleconnection indices are suggesting the AO returns to a more positive state near the end of January. Also of note is the fact the tropical activity near the dateline in the Pacific is indicated as we near the end of the month. That tends to favor a deeper trough across the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and Plains while the Eastern third of North America warms up and that SE Ridge pops up. The typical transition from one pattern change to another is about 3 1/2 to 4 weeks. That brings us into the early February time frame where from a climatological standpoint is our peak for wintry mischief across our Region.

[gatorcane]

Just checked the 12Z GFS and it is not showing much of anything different regarding any major cold blasts into Texas through the next 16 days. Stubborn trough persists over Eastern North America.

Here we are 192 hours from now (last frame before the low resolution frames start):

[srainhoutx]

Just checked the 12Z GFS and it is not showing much of anything different regarding any major cold blasts into Texas through the next 16 days. Stubborn trough persists over Eastern North America.

The GEFS/NAEFS do indicate the upper ridge transitioning further W near the Aleutian Islands as a very stout EPO Ridge develops between Kamchatka and the Gulf of Alaska. That tends to favor the -EPO that the teleconnection indices of -3 to -3.5 have been very aggressive in advertising. It is also noteworthy the a SE Ridge develops and that suggest Florida will warm up after your brief shot of colder air and that pattern transitions back to the Western half of North America. No one is really expecting any anomalously cold air in Texas. What we are seeing are indications that match climatology rather well with intrusions of cold air as our source Regions of Eastern Alaska/NW Canada reload and very cold air of Siberia drains across the North Pole. It would be rather unusual to see a bitter cold outbreak this far S in February ~vs~ what we typically see with slightly sub freezing temps that can extend as far S as the Texas Gulf Coast including the Rio Grande Valley.

[Brent]

Hey wxman57, do you have access to those GFS temperature charts outside of Texas? Say in AL or GA? There's talk of it possibly being colder than Jan 6-8th here(whh was the coldest since 1996 here)

Alabama is a bit vague as far as your location. What city? The GFS is global. I can make one for any location in the world.

It's getting awfully quiet around here. That's generally good news for me. Don't tell me the GFS has backed off on the cold air push into Texas and now agrees with the Euro. Here's to a ++WSI in the coming weeks...

KANB Please

[wxman57]

KANB Please

You might not like what you see, unless you like non-freezing weather. I have wrestled the global thermostat away from the cold-mongerers. So much for that Arctic blast toward the end of the month. Cold air will be centered over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and New England. We won't get much at all here. I'm still thinking maybe the 2nd week of February, but there is one big problem - no cold air in western and NW Canada. Warmer than normal air there, in fact. Hard to get very cold in Texas with above-normal temps in western Canada.

Here are 3 meteograms, one for Anniston, AL, one for Houston and one for Dallas area:

[Portastorm]

Not so fast, Heat Miser. "No cold air in western and NW Canada" you say? Whaaa?! Look below at both the 12z and 18z GFS. The GFS shows anomalously cold temperatures in NW and W Canada as we move into February which theoretically would provide plenty of "potential" should the 500mb flow cooperate.



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Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

ECMWF has temps in western Canada 12-18C above normal at 850mb at hour 240. GFS has the same. It's beyond 240hrs where cold air builds in western Canada per the GFS. Euro ensembles have above-normal temps across western Canada beyond 240hrs. Think you can trust the long-range GFS?

[WeatherGuesser]

Cold air will be centered over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and New England.

I only understand about 10% of what's said on this thread, but that's in line with some of the maps I've seen on other media sites that are starting to chatter about this. Cold, but nothing special.

[Ntxw]

ECMWF has temps in western Canada 12-18C above normal at 850mb at hour 240. GFS has the same. It's beyond 240hrs where cold air builds in western Canada per the GFS. Euro ensembles have above-normal temps across western Canada beyond 240hrs. Think you can trust the long-range GFS?

Of course we can trust it! As long as it is cold and snow we will dissect it left and right down to the very first and last flake! A blind squirrel finds a nut eventually! Must get good juju from these models for a -WSI/+PWC combo.

[TheProfessor]

KANB Please

You might not like what you see, unless you like non-freezing weather. I have wrestled the global thermostat away from the cold-mongerers. So much for that Arctic blast toward the end of the month. Cold air will be centered over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and New England. We won't get much at all here. I'm still thinking maybe the 2nd week of February, but there is one big problem - no cold air in western and NW Canada. Warmer than normal air there, in fact. Hard to get very cold in Texas with above-normal temps in western Canada.

Here are 3 meteograms, one for Anniston, AL, one for Houston and one for Dallas area:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/anbgfsx12zjan18.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zjan18.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx12zjan18.gif

Those Dallas temperatures look highly inflated to me.

[TheProfessor]

ECMWF has temps in western Canada 12-18C above normal at 850mb at hour 240. GFS has the same. It's beyond 240hrs where cold air builds in western Canada per the GFS. Euro ensembles have above-normal temps across western Canada beyond 240hrs. Think you can trust the long-range GFS?

Of course we can trust it! As long as it is cold and snow we will dissect it left and right down to the very first and last flake! A blind squirrel finds a nut eventually! Must get good juju from these models for a -WSI/+PWC combo.

http://i40.tinypic.com/2nm24w1.png

That slightly Darker shade of blue looks great!

[aggiecutter]

Someone on this forum mentioned earlier(I wonder who it was) that they didn't remember the winter of 78' being very severe. In reality, January-March of 1978 was the holy grail of winters for ice and snow in the southern plains, deep south, eastern seaboard, and the Ohio Valley. I was a senior in high school in 78' and remember that winter very well. During the period of January-March of that year, Texarkana had 9 significant ice-snow events. The first event occurred on January 4th when Texarkana received an incredible 6" of sleet. The snow and ice onslaught continued through mid-March. My last day of high school was scheduled to be on May 21st. However, schools in the Texarkana area were closed for nearly 3 weeks because of the ice and snow. My graduation was postponed until mid-June due to make-up days.

The link below takes you to an article about January of 78'. February and March of the same year were very similar. Here are a few tidbits if you don't want to read the whole article:

"Temperatures averaged well below normal in most areas east of the Continental Divide."

"The cold weather over the eastern United States was, for the most part, less severe than during the January of 77, but January 1978 was a few degrees colder over much of the Great Plains and western Gulf States, where it generally ranked as the 3rd or 4th coldest on record."

Record and near-record monthly mean temperatures observed during January 1978:
Station Mean Temperature Anomaly Rank
Wichita Falls,Tx 30.1 -11.4 Coldest Jan.

Austin, Tx 40.7 -9.0 3rd Coldest Jan.

Little Rock, Ar 29.8 -11.5 2nd Coldest Jan.

Shreveport, La. 34.9 -12.3 Coldest Jan.

"In sharp contrast with the dry January a year ago (Wagner, 1977) nearly the entire conterminous United States had above normal precipitation."

When you combine record, or near record cold, and above normal precipitation, you get the holy grail winter of 1978. Without a doubt, the worst winter I've ever experienced in this part of the country. The link to the article:

journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106%3C0579%3ACWRSIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2