Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3761 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:09 pm

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:I typically don't bet against the euro, but I feel the gfs will be correct unfortunately. Rull of thumb is the model not showing snow is the way to go :grr:


Not sure if it’s true or not but I heard the Euro was showing all that snow in areas where temps were above freezing.


I mean it can snow with temps above freezing. Actually I kind of prefer that wet snow to the dry powder anyway :lol: I saw it many times growing up in Alabama

I dunno if next week will happen or not here but temps alone aren't going to decide if it does. I'm pretty sure this won't be our only shot anyway regardless


True but it wouldn’t accumulate like what it was showing. If that’s even true what I heard idk. I haven’t looked what the temps were.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3762 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:43 pm

Kind of bad timing, as it stands right now on the models, when cold is available we go NW flow +PNA go figure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3763 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:58 pm

Ntxw wrote:Kind of bad timing, as it stands right now on the models, when cold is available we go NW flow +PNA go figure.

Heat Miser has something to do with this . . . :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3764 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:35 am

Euro is still the strongest system of the bunch at 0z with a mix of precip in marginal temperatures along I-20 and N. Bowling ball ULL.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3765 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:38 am

Stop it. It’s coming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3766 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:51 am

EPS is looking better now, SE Ridge being featured.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3767 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:54 am

I’m sorry but this feels like a 30 degree rain to me. Maybe a mix of sleet. I don’t expect any snow out of this and it’s alright. Better for sure than these 80 degree days
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All observations I note are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3768 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:21 am

Ntxw wrote:Kind of bad timing, as it stands right now on the models, when cold is available we go NW flow +PNA go figure.


???
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3769 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:24 am

That ULL next tuesday on the Euro looks like snow to me. Surface temps are off. Models always screw that up. If precip is falling, it will bring cooler air down with it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3770 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:49 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:That ULL next tuesday on the Euro looks like snow to me. Surface temps are off. Models always screw that up. If precip is falling, it will bring cooler air down with it.

Temps with that system have dropped in the local forecasts. I hope you are correct. By the way, how did you like your snowstorm in Denver yesterday? Lucky.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3771 Postby harp » Thu Jan 19, 2023 9:52 am

Good morning, gentlemen. The ol’ harpman over here in Louisiana is about to throw in the towel on this one for my area. I wish you folks in Texas some fun, although it ain’t looking that great for you either. Here’s to a better February for everyone!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3772 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:05 am

Ntxw wrote:Kind of bad timing, as it stands right now on the models, when cold is available we go NW flow +PNA go figure.


Shocker. ugh. Hopefully it goes back like it tends to do.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3773 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:18 am

I think the 12z runs today will get this place buzzing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3774 Postby harp » Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:21 am

bubba hotep wrote:I think the 12z runs today will get this place buzzing.

How so?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3775 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:28 am

bubba hotep wrote:I think the 12z runs today will get this place buzzing.


Not as optimistic atm due to Euro Op being on the southern end of its ensembles and the outlier, typically not a good sign...but hopefully, it's just leading the trend!!!!

Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3776 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 19, 2023 10:29 am

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:I think the 12z runs today will get this place buzzing.


Not as optimistic atm due to Euro Op being on the southern end of its ensembles and the outlier, typically not a good sign...

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/snow_24hr/1674108000/1674626400-a0wnOEPF0CY.png

Not for me! :D
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3777 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:10 am

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:I think the 12z runs today will get this place buzzing.


Not as optimistic atm due to Euro Op being on the southern end of its ensembles and the outlier, typically not a good sign...but hopefully, it's just leading the trend!!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/snow_24hr/1674108000/1674626400-a0wnOEPF0CY.png


I like the initial set up. GFS has gone with better upper level cold and you only need ~33-35 at the surface. If it can draw anymore sig cold this would be major qpf event!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3778 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:11 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Kind of bad timing, as it stands right now on the models, when cold is available we go NW flow +PNA go figure.


???
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1674086400-t1GEviinAHwgrb2.png


Just the short to medium range spike once the trof kicks out. Would like to see more western digging for continued systems. Long range for sure will revert to -PNA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3779 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:13 am

Nice trend south/closing off energy on 12Z GFS but temps are really warm. Melt on contact setup

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3780 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:16 am



Temps will most likely be a few degrees colder than that.
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