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Tammie wrote:Oh dear, Mr. Cosgrove…
“Starting soon, a genuine cold wave that will be hard to get rid of.”
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/07/ ... et-rid-of/
“It would be wise to do a walk-through on why the weather pattern will be colder than what we have experienced nationally since mid-January. This is not February 2021 redux; rather, it is a more spread-out event that will support perhaps two ice and snow events along the southern and eastern tier of the lower 48 states. I cannot be any more specific than that, but the similarity of the numerical models and analogs is impressive.
Most likely time frame: February 12 – March 7. There could be a small break of moderation involved somewhere. But climatology of -EPO/-AO/-NAO blocking scenarios basically involves temperature averages in most of the USA being below normal. And in the case of the south central and Dixie states, well below average.
Storm threats: judging by the 500MB height anomalies on the various models, February 12 – 14 and February 17 – 20. Track probability is greatest along a South Texas – Florida – Nova Scotia arc. The second threat appears to be greater and would involve a good deal of frozen types to the left of the path of the disturbances.
Strongest cold potential: February 16 – 20 from the High Plains to the Gulf and East Coast.
Clues in the synoptic pattern that the cold/snow risks should not be taken lightly: even with so much ridging, a gap in the upper flow is present which will allow for cross-polar flow. Also, note that the Arctic jet stream dips below the Great Lakes with recurrent cAk vortex formation in Ontario, James Bay, and Quebec. Also note the evolution of a storm aloft that gets into Baja California. Very low in latitude, redevelopment should be below the TX Gulf Coast. That trajectory is a colder and wetter one for the Lone Star State, the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard.“
Cosgrove does put out some good stuff occasionally but that Headline seems very misleading....this "Genuine Cold Wave" is clearly being moderated and quite easily on almost every Global Ensemble. The Alaskan Ridge is very short lived. As its forecast to move back over towards Siberia, allowing the Pacific Jet to crash into the west coast bringing with it warmer Pacific Air. This air destroys this cold Cosgrove mentions.
And after that, Greenland Block weakens and back to zonal flow. Sure, it appears below normal mainly due to active storm track across southern US but a Genuine Cold Wave seems pretty far fetched.
Source Region looks good around Feb 18-19th time frame then gets crushed by Pacific Air a few days later. Not sure what Cosgrove is looking at, seems to be chasing his tail the past several weeks with his cold mongerer narrative!
Agreed, I'm not seeing much arctic air making it south across the U.S. over the next few weeks. And with climatological averages quickly rising this month, it's going to be hard to get very cold air (similar to the January cold blast) to Texas.
