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snow_wizzard
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#3661 Postby snow_wizzard » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:15 pm

Those NWS guys are being way too negative. How can they ignore 20+ runs in a row that show we will get slammed next week? On top of that, the law of physics says the jetstream has to move north as we get deeper into spring. Put me down, for nonstop nasty weather next week!
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W13
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#3662 Postby W13 » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:18 pm

Currently, we have Sunny skies with a temperature of 50 F. Our high today was 51 F, and our low this morning was 31 F. Not too bad for late March. :wink:
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#3663 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:53 pm

An AWESOME day...currently 51F with bright, sunny skies. A little cool with a northerly wind, but still awesome for the middle of March.

As for this weekend, I think we jumped the gun a little too soon. Latest NWS discussion suggests a continued split flow with Western Washington stuck in the middle. Fine by me!! If we can have warm, sunny conditions I'm happy! I guess we'll have to see.

Anthony
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#3664 Postby andycottle » Tue Mar 22, 2005 6:55 pm

I did have mostly sunny skies earlier today, but with in the last half hour or so, skies have become a bit cloudy due some east winds(?) sending some mid level clouds of the Cascades. Our high today was 57 with a low of 31. -- Andy
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#3665 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:10 pm

Big change the past thirty minutes...now it's mostly cloudy and 47F. I guess it's from the system pushing up from California.
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#3666 Postby snow_wizzard » Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:16 pm

Undoubtedly a crisp one today! I say there is NO chance it will be sunny and warm this weekend and early next. Early Saturday MAY be ok, but that's it.

By the way. This is the strongest north wind I have seen in Covington, since I have lived here...going on 5 years now. We are usually quite blocked from that direction, but this one is getting in here really good!
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#3667 Postby W13 » Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:26 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:Undoubtedly a crisp one today! I say there is NO chance it will be sunny and warm this weekend and early next. Early Saturday MAY be ok, but that's it.

By the way. This is the strongest north wind I have seen in Covington, since I have lived here...going on 5 years now. We are usually quite blocked from that direction, but this one is getting in here really good!


Same here, we have a steady wind of around 15-20mph gusting to 26mph. Usually with a South and North wind, we are sheltered.

What direction will the winds be coming from this next weekend?
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TT-SEA

#3668 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:38 pm

I agree with Snow_Wizzard.

Sunny and pleasant weather from Saturday afternoon through most of next week is NOT going to happen.

I think the afternoon forecaster in Seattle has been WAY too negative lately.

Here is what Spokane is sayng...

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC AND CURRENT FIVE WAVE CHARTS AND FORECAST PROGS INTO THE EXTENDED SHOW SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED OR AT TIMES ALMOST COMPLETE ABSENCE OF ANY OFFSHORE LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT COULD ACT TO WEAKEN OR DEFLECT STORM TRACK. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSHED UNSETTLED EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING CLOSE TO CLIMO. /RP
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#3669 Postby snow_wizzard » Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:04 pm

Justin...I would say the winds this weekend will start out E to SE and then go S to SW. The models have been showing some strong S to SW winds at times next week. This will be a cool south wind though (with the possible exception of late Saturday and Saturday night), because the origin of the air will be from the Gulf of Alaska.
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#3670 Postby Guest » Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:04 pm

Yeah SNOWWIZZ... we are usually blocked from the NE here at my house too but today it was whipping through here like i have never seen the NE come through here before. I hardly ever have stronger winds on a clear day here... The indicator for me that we are having really strong north winds are that there is waves blowing in from the gap in the mountain across the lake blowing towards me and wind coming straight down the shore of the lake... these two winds meet sort of around my area and created quite the swirl today... I was very surprised... it wasn't just a breeze either, we had winds getting up between 20-25 with a gust up to 35 at one point... Pretty cold out there today despite it getting up into the low 50's... dew point right now is 26* so i expect a cold night.
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TT-SEA

#3671 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:20 pm

For what its worth... the latest 00Z run of the ETA (NAM) has the tropical plume aimed right at Western Washington. This model only goes out through 84 hours which is Saturday morning at 4 a.m. but the moisture is poised to move in during the day.

That is much farther north than the 18Z run of the GFS.

Finally... a consolidated jet stream into Washington!!

The pattern change started one week ago tomorrow and will be complete by this weekend.
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#3672 Postby andycottle » Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:46 pm

Looking at the latest 18z GFS tonight, looks like a pretty wet sunday, and then more hefty wet systems coming our way about every other day. Sundays system could also be breezy and mild as surface winds appear to be coming up from a SW direction. -- Andy
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TT-SEA

#3673 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:43 pm

Nice WARM night out there folks!!

Looks like temperatures will be kept up tonight thanks to clouds and a breeze.
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#3674 Postby andycottle » Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:49 pm

Some what overcast here right now at the 8:53pm hour. Temp is 47 with humidity 55% ,DP 32 and baro 29.41 and steady. -- Andy
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#3675 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:52 pm

Yeah, it's warm outside!! Currently 45F with mostly cloudy conditions.

The weekend is still up in the air, but we'll get wet to some degree...how much is yet to be determined.

Anthony
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TT-SEA

#3676 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:55 pm

The weekend will be cloudy, wet, and windy.

Anthony is correct... how much rain is the question. Regardless... it will be more than last weekend.

And check out the AWESOME zonal flow after that. The split flow is DEAD!!

Image
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#3677 Postby Guest » Wed Mar 23, 2005 12:56 am

Also to add, this weekend doesn't look quite as warm as it had previously... And by the way, this evening is NOT WARM AT ALL... A northeast wind of 15 to 20 gusting to 30 even with a temp of 45 is still brisk feeling... If these winds happen to die down things are going to get cold... i think i might have to wait another night for that though, even though early thismorning it got down to 30 :-)
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snow_wizzard
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#3678 Postby snow_wizzard » Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:00 am

Well...It looks like Covington is going to be one of the coldest places again tonight. After the clouds cleared a couple of hours ago the temp has been dropping like a rock. It is sitting at 36 right now, as we head toward our 57th low of 32 or below for this season.

On a totally different note...a small but intensely cold pool of water has begun to form off the coast of South America. If it continues to grow like it has for the past two days, this could be a La Nina in no time! :eek: My friend at NOAA told me, once an El Nino dies there is almost no chance of it restarting in the same year. The key words are ALMOST NO CHANCE. In weather, nothing is totally certain.

I still like our chances for next week to be wild, but I am not sure about the copious amounts of rain this weekend. It may end up being more of a typical rain. After that a series of really cold, cold fronts will plow through the region!
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#3679 Postby R-Dub » Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:02 am

At 5:00AM its 34.2 here at my house, looks like I will see more frost when I go into work, and that is right now :wink:
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TT-SEA

#3680 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Mar 23, 2005 8:34 am

Looks like most places stayed ABOVE freezing. Including Covington Elementary currently at 36 degrees.

And Bellingham at 42 degrees!!

Here at our house it is slightly below freezing at 31 degrees but skies are clear so that sun will warm us up FAST in about 1 hour.

No doubt about the WET pattern that begins Saturday.
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