Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

No comment on that 6z GFS, Heat Miser?!

Poor fella...he's doing all he can to hold on to whatever "warmth" he can find in the models. I suspect his task will grow more and more difficult in the days ahead.

[wxman57]

No comment on that 6z GFS, Heat Miser?!

Poor fella...he's doing all he can to hold on to whatever "warmth" he can find in the models. I suspect his task will grow more and more difficult in the days ahead.

Well, the 6Z does indicate some snow accumulation north of Dallas then southeast to the MS Coast in 2 weeks. Knowing how well it performs at those times, I'd say it's probably wrong.

Looking more at the EC ensembles, the pattern is one that will keep us cooler than normal, but there just isn't predicted to be any really cold air in western Canada through 15 days. It's centered over the Great Lakes. Might be cold enough at times for frozen precip in north Texas - IF we can get some upper-level disturbances moving across Texas. That's not forecast by the EC at this time.

[TheProfessor]

No comment on that 6z GFS, Heat Miser?!

Poor fella...he's doing all he can to hold on to whatever "warmth" he can find in the models. I suspect his task will grow more and more difficult in the days ahead.

Well, the 6Z does indicate some snow accumulation north of Dallas then southeast to the MS Coast in 2 weeks. Knowing how well it performs at those times, I'd say it's probably wrong.

Looking more at the EC ensembles, the pattern is one that will keep us cooler than normal, but there just isn't predicted to be any really cold air in western Canada through 15 days. It's centered over the Great Lakes. Might be cold enough at times for frozen precip in north Texas - IF we can get some upper-level disturbances moving across Texas. That's not forecast by the EC at this time.

Wrong in what way? Over estimating (no snow)? or underestimating (major snow storm for North and Central Texas)?

[orangeblood]

No comment on that 6z GFS, Heat Miser?!

Poor fella...he's doing all he can to hold on to whatever "warmth" he can find in the models. I suspect his task will grow more and more difficult in the days ahead.

Well, the 6Z does indicate some snow accumulation north of Dallas then southeast to the MS Coast in 2 weeks. Knowing how well it performs at those times, I'd say it's probably wrong.

Looking more at the EC ensembles, the pattern is one that will keep us cooler than normal, but there just isn't predicted to be any really cold air in western Canada through 15 days. It's centered over the Great Lakes. Might be cold enough at times for frozen precip in north Texas - IF we can get some upper-level disturbances moving across Texas. That's not forecast by the EC at this time.

This board is great, it's plagued with Confirmation Bias

[Ntxw]

I agree with wxman57, sort of! Ha! That's how it will be first but it's a retrograding pattern it will all migrate west slowly through late Jan into February. Fascinating all guidance and ensembles has this little storm coming down the west coast and kicking out into the cold dome. Talk about model consensus huh?

2 dollars for anyone who can name this 500mb look, here's a hint big backwards S -PNA

[gboudx]

McFarland!

I'll take a $2 bill please.

[Rgv20]

1 of the 50 0zECMWF Ensemble Members by day 9-10 is showing 1/2'' of Snow for McAllen and 4+ inches in Houston. For Dallas/Fort Worth 3 of the 50 Ensemble Members are showing winter weather....So there is a chance!

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: McFarland!

I'll take a $2 bill please.

McDonald!!
I will take a Frape...Mocha please...

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: McFarland!

I'll take a $2 bill please.

McDonald!!
I will take a Frape...Mocha please...

Winners! Well Mcdonald's is questionable but close enough.

[TheProfessor]

1 of the 50 0zECMWF Ensemble Members by day 9-10 is showing 1/2'' of Snow for McAllen and 4+ inches in Houston. For Dallas/Fort Worth 3 of the 50 Ensemble Members are showing winter weather....So there is a chance!

How many inches do those 3 ensembles say for dfw?

[Rgv20]

My best guess (forecast is not in numerical values but in color shading) is 6, 3 and 3 and this is for KDAL DALLAS/LOVE F

[Stormcenter]

Why is so much weight put on GFS runs for some weather events but discounted/laughed at for others? You can't have it both ways.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: My best guess (forecast is not in numerical values but in color shading) is 6, 3 and 3 and this is for KDAL DALLAS/LOVE F

That's still a little bit lower than I would like, but definitely better than nothing! Hopefully more of the ensembles trend that way.

[Ntxw]

Why is so much weight put on GFS runs for some weather events but discounted/laughed at for others? You can't have it both ways.

It isn't so much any individual run. All entertainment fun, but you have to read the posts as a whole not bits and pieces. If you haven't notice the tune on this board has flipped as the trends have slowly shifted. Many of us have analyzed and put thoughts out with research and data with a variety of sources not just pulling something from a map and say oh there it is!

[Portastorm]

Why is so much weight put on GFS runs for some weather events but discounted/laughed at for others? You can't have it both ways.

Exactly! But why let facts get in the way of a good argument?!

We all do it. We all KNOW that we do it. That's the funny part. Trying to be serious for a moment, I wouldn't take any model run beyond five days too serious unless it has agreement from other models as well as other weather signals/teleconnections. And even then, as we have seen this winter, that can blow up on you!

I like what Ntxw said above and, in this case though, I think a pattern change late month to cooler/colder and wetter appears to have growing support in factual data. How cool or cold or wet remains to be seen.

[TheProfessor]

Why is so much weight put on GFS runs for some weather events but discounted/laughed at for others? You can't have it both ways.

I am an amateur so I might not be correct, but different models work best with different weather patterns. During the severe season I see the gfs used way more than the Euro and during hurricane season both are used considerably but it seems like Mets like to lean with the gfs more. But with winter the euro seems to perform better than the gfs and is liked better by alto of meteorologist.

[Portastorm]

Why is so much weight put on GFS runs for some weather events but discounted/laughed at for others? You can't have it both ways.

I am an amateur so I might not be correct, but different models work best with different weather patterns. During the severe season I see the gfs used way more than the Euro and during hurricane season both are used considerably but it seems like Mets like to lean with the gfs more. But with winter the euro seems to perform better than the gfs and is liked better by alto of meteorologist.

And there's a reason for that. The 5-day and 6-day skill scores for forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere consistently show that both the European and UKMet models outperform the GFS. It used to be a literal blowout in terms of scores but the GFS has narrowed the gap in the last year or so.

[Big O]

1 of the 50 0zECMWF Ensemble Members by day 9-10 is showing 1/2'' of Snow for McAllen and 4+ inches in Houston. For Dallas/Fort Worth 3 of the 50 Ensemble Members are showing winter weather....So there is a chance!

Just too add, 4 of the 50 0z Euro ensemble members showing show snow in Austin beginning on Day 9, with one showing 8-9 inches. Thought Porta might want to hear this.

[weatherdude1108]

1 of the 50 0zECMWF Ensemble Members by day 9-10 is showing 1/2'' of Snow for McAllen and 4+ inches in Houston. For Dallas/Fort Worth 3 of the 50 Ensemble Members are showing winter weather....So there is a chance!

Just too add, 4 of the 50 0z Euro ensemble members showing show snow in Austin beginning on Day 9, with one showing 8-9 inches. Thought Porta might want to hear this.

That would be SWEEEEEEET!!

[orangeblood]

Why is so much weight put on GFS runs for some weather events but discounted/laughed at for others? You can't have it both ways.

I am an amateur so I might not be correct, but different models work best with different weather patterns. During the severe season I see the gfs used way more than the Euro and during hurricane season both are used considerably but it seems like Mets like to lean with the gfs more. But with winter the euro seems to perform better than the gfs and is liked better by alto of meteorologist.

And there's a reason for that. The 5-day and 6-day skill scores for forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere consistently show that both the European and UKMet models outperform the GFS. It used to be a literal blowout in terms of scores but the GFS has narrowed the gap in the last year or so.

The 5 day skill score verification over the past 30 days for the GFS is 0.896 while the European is better around 0.923. But 10 day verification scores drop considerably down to 0.40-0.50. Of note, both the GFS and Euro verification scores were considerably higher leading up to the early December Arctic Outbreak than what they are now - so should give even more pause to jumping on any particular run over 5 - 7 days out leading up to this pattern change