At this point in the season, I've given up on lowland snow/arctic cold. But a good windstorm is still in the air...TT-SEA, any possibility of a windstorm this weekend? I wouldn't call last weekend's storm a major lowland windstorm...it didn't have all the classic characteristics...it was more localized. And how much rain are we expecting? Could this cause flooding?
Anthony
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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snow_wizzard
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- Location: Covington, WA
TT...It is the fine details of the pattern this week that are fascinating me. As I have said many times, I am looking at record lows as being part of the big picture. Just look at the years that set record lows this time of year. As I said, record lows are always exciting to me. For example...record lows were set in July 1949. Maybe not exciting on the day it happened, BUT look at what it led to. The climatologist part of me is always thinking of the big picture! 
It serves me well because I get a thrill out of even the little things.
Your take on the pattern this weekend and next week is dead on! We are going to get SLAMMED! That zonal flow is going to give us a ride next week. I can still imagine 4 feet of snow on Steven's Pass! This is going to leave everybody wondering....what drought.
By the way, you are correct to mention a chance of a surprise Wednesday night.
It serves me well because I get a thrill out of even the little things.
Your take on the pattern this weekend and next week is dead on! We are going to get SLAMMED! That zonal flow is going to give us a ride next week. I can still imagine 4 feet of snow on Steven's Pass! This is going to leave everybody wondering....what drought.
By the way, you are correct to mention a chance of a surprise Wednesday night.
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TT-SEA
Just an observation... but I think you are placing too much importance on record lows. They can be quite random and usually meaningless. I would say record lows in January are interesting and record highs in July as well.
Also... a long string of record lows or highs can be meaningful. But one or two every now and then is usually not significant at all.
I hope the snow levels come down fast enough early next week. It will be close.
Regardless... we are going to get lots of rain and I think a moderate wind event is possible over the weekend.
Also... a long string of record lows or highs can be meaningful. But one or two every now and then is usually not significant at all.
I hope the snow levels come down fast enough early next week. It will be close.
Regardless... we are going to get lots of rain and I think a moderate wind event is possible over the weekend.
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hey all! Just now got back from the SKYWARN class over at the Redmond PD. It was great! The class was hosted by Ted Buhner and Alan Kam from the Seattle NWS. Also shown was lots very cool and interesting graphics such as....pics and video clips/coverage of wind, hail, tornadoes, lightning, flooding, snow events, mud slides due to lots of rain, and even recent news clips of past flooding events, ect. So over all, VERY well worth attending!
Should have my SKYWARN weather spotter number and certificate in about 4 to 6 weeks mailing time. Oh BTW....everyone that was there, me included, recieved lots of really good and useful handouts on being a weather spotter.
-- Andy
Should have my SKYWARN weather spotter number and certificate in about 4 to 6 weeks mailing time. Oh BTW....everyone that was there, me included, recieved lots of really good and useful handouts on being a weather spotter.
-- Andy
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andycottle
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Hey all...looking the GFS tonight, it appears that we could have a few showers on Wednesday as a weak upper level low kinda stalls over us on the 24th, 25th...with 500MB heights of around 540 and 850MB temp of -3 with heights of 1410M. So surface temps should still remain cool and be lower 50`s. -- Andy
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snow_wizzard
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- Location: Covington, WA
Sounds cool Andy! I can't wait to do that myself.
Speaking of cool...It is getting down there already tonight! Currently 35 and the night is young. This last GFS run seems to be emphasising the cold nights more and the precip less for the rest of the week. That is until the colossal deluge this weekend. This thing looks big!
The really good news is that the snow levels quickly plunge during the second half of the soaking, so the mountains will go back to snow fairly quickly. After that it is one cold front after another, with lots of wind and cold showers. A WILD and WOOLEY period coming up.
As for the cold nights and record lows that I am so hung up on...All I can say is that such things are much more common during our cold climate phase. In my book below normal temperatures any time of the year bode well for cold weather in general and cold winters. I have looked at WAY MORE than my share of weather records to come to these conclusions....
Speaking of cool...It is getting down there already tonight! Currently 35 and the night is young. This last GFS run seems to be emphasising the cold nights more and the precip less for the rest of the week. That is until the colossal deluge this weekend. This thing looks big!
The really good news is that the snow levels quickly plunge during the second half of the soaking, so the mountains will go back to snow fairly quickly. After that it is one cold front after another, with lots of wind and cold showers. A WILD and WOOLEY period coming up.
As for the cold nights and record lows that I am so hung up on...All I can say is that such things are much more common during our cold climate phase. In my book below normal temperatures any time of the year bode well for cold weather in general and cold winters. I have looked at WAY MORE than my share of weather records to come to these conclusions....
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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andycottle
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TT-SEA
"colossal deluge"
I like the sound of that!!
Another observation here... I could probably point to many record lows in otherwise warm years. Or years that lead to warm years.
I am an avid weather watcher and constantly look at historical records (probably not nearly as much as you though) and would not think twice about the weather this week being an indicator of anything. It seems totally unremarkable to me.
Just slightly below normal. And March will likely end up right near normal.
Maybe I am missing something.
If we have a knock-down drag-out winter next year I will be a total believer in your theories!! Trust me.
I like the sound of that!!
Another observation here... I could probably point to many record lows in otherwise warm years. Or years that lead to warm years.
I am an avid weather watcher and constantly look at historical records (probably not nearly as much as you though) and would not think twice about the weather this week being an indicator of anything. It seems totally unremarkable to me.
Just slightly below normal. And March will likely end up right near normal.
Maybe I am missing something.
If we have a knock-down drag-out winter next year I will be a total believer in your theories!! Trust me.
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Guest
Well yesturday was very interesting for me in that I slept from 4pm to 11:30 pm... That is 7 1/2 hours which is 2 1/2 hours more than my nightly average sleep... So pretty much I am up all night tonight...
It's 3:32 AM, yes that's right... LOL... And it's 31*F right now at my house with a dropping dew point of 29*. There is a NE wind of 9mph in bellingham right now so dew points should be farely low by tomorrow night. I think these next few nights could get really cold... I can't believe more people don't get excited about cold nights. It feels like winter outside now. The water droplets on the cars are frozen solid, the grass is like a field of crystals shining in the moonlight. The air is cold and fresh and it feels like magic. Of course by 9 or 10 oclock in the morning it will be warmed up and the frost will be gone and you will have never known, but it's really refreshing to go out in the middle of the night and get the winter feeling back for even a short time.
Oh and by the way, Next year BETTER BE A KNOCK OUT DRAG OUT WINTER or I am going to be searching for answers for a long time... Our drought of crappy winters cannot continue much longer.
It's 3:32 AM, yes that's right... LOL... And it's 31*F right now at my house with a dropping dew point of 29*. There is a NE wind of 9mph in bellingham right now so dew points should be farely low by tomorrow night. I think these next few nights could get really cold... I can't believe more people don't get excited about cold nights. It feels like winter outside now. The water droplets on the cars are frozen solid, the grass is like a field of crystals shining in the moonlight. The air is cold and fresh and it feels like magic. Of course by 9 or 10 oclock in the morning it will be warmed up and the frost will be gone and you will have never known, but it's really refreshing to go out in the middle of the night and get the winter feeling back for even a short time.
Oh and by the way, Next year BETTER BE A KNOCK OUT DRAG OUT WINTER or I am going to be searching for answers for a long time... Our drought of crappy winters cannot continue much longer.
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snow_wizzard
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For what it's worth. The low in Covington this morning was 28, which is tied for the second coldest low I have ever recorded after the spring equinox. The coldest is 24 from 1996...Yes folks "96"! I am convinced this stuff means something. If it is clear tonight, I figure we can probably get down to 26 or so in many places, due to drier air being in place. This goes to show it takes more than just a clear night to make it get this cold. There is something more at play here. I say this because we have had many clear night in the early spring that have been nowhere near this cold.
There is no doubt that a person could find some record lows that did not lead to anything exciting, but those are the exception not the rule!
There is no doubt that a person could find some record lows that did not lead to anything exciting, but those are the exception not the rule!
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andycottle
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Good sunny morning you all! My low this morning got down to 31. Right now at 8:08pm we have 37 with DP of 37 and humidity 97% with baro 29.62 and steady. And of course, LOTS of sunshine this morning.
But Not so for extreme south Western Wa, and down into Oregon....as they have cloudy skies...per visiable satellite. -- Andy
But Not so for extreme south Western Wa, and down into Oregon....as they have cloudy skies...per visiable satellite. -- Andy
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andycottle
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Getting a look at the latest GFS this morning...it still appears that an upper level low...weak in nature....will drop dwon from the northern B.C on the 23rd, to give us mainly some clouds with some possible light sprinkles and or showers. But thoes may be confined to the Cascades. Cloudy skies may continue on the 24th...but clearing through the day. Over all, the next few days of weather look mainly dry other than the showers I mentioned about. The next real measureable rain fall comes on the 27th when we could see some pretty hefty and heavy rains. -- Andy
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
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- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Brennan...I love your field of crystals, and magical cold air kind of talk! I may have to hire you to help me with my book. At any rate, it is nice to have another HARD CORE cold weather fan on here.
A couple of interesting notes. The models show a very strong N to S pressure gradient through all of BC and into WA. I would not say that outflow does not matter this late in the season. It was 3 degrees F in Fort Nelson BC this morning! While the air will moderate significantly before it hits Bellingham, it could spell VERY low...wintry if you will, dew point temps. I would say the chances of record lows being set in the Puget Sound area are very high this week. The big question is going to be clearing. By Thursday night everything looks perfet. 850mb temps of -4C, dry air in place, very flat pressure gradients, and the liklihood it will be clear. There could be some eye popping lows later this week!
At any rate, it is nice to have another HARD CORE cold weather fan on here.
A couple of interesting notes. The models show a very strong N to S pressure gradient through all of BC and into WA. I would not say that outflow does not matter this late in the season. It was 3 degrees F in Fort Nelson BC this morning! While the air will moderate significantly before it hits Bellingham, it could spell VERY low...wintry if you will, dew point temps. I would say the chances of record lows being set in the Puget Sound area are very high this week. The big question is going to be clearing. By Thursday night everything looks perfet. 850mb temps of -4C, dry air in place, very flat pressure gradients, and the liklihood it will be clear. There could be some eye popping lows later this week!
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Tue Mar 22, 2005 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
Some the forecasters at the NWS are being conservative and are probably worried the current split flow will continue.
This will NOT be the case.
The flow may still be split but the whole pattern will shift north and instead of being in the "split" we will be in the direct line of fire.
The southern jet is going to slam Washington starting on Saturday.
To say it will be "wet" is an understatement.
This will NOT be the case.
The flow may still be split but the whole pattern will shift north and instead of being in the "split" we will be in the direct line of fire.
The southern jet is going to slam Washington starting on Saturday.
To say it will be "wet" is an understatement.
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TT-SEA
Just did a quick check and immediately found a perfect example of cold air in late March leading to nothing at all the following winter.
We had record lows during the last half of March in 1975 and the winter of 1975-76 had very little snow. In fact... the next winter after that (1976-77) was another drought winter with almost no snow in the lowlands or in the mountains.
We had record lows during the last half of March in 1975 and the winter of 1975-76 had very little snow. In fact... the next winter after that (1976-77) was another drought winter with almost no snow in the lowlands or in the mountains.
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snow_wizzard
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Yeah...1975 did have some really cold late season low temps. The thing is that was coming out of a cold phase and going into the warm phase. This time that is not the case.
Very interesting to note though...While Seattle had almost no snow in the winter of 1975 - 76, Palmer had 32 inches. That goes to show how even a fairly unremarkable winter was able to dish out the snow back then.
Very interesting to note though...While Seattle had almost no snow in the winter of 1975 - 76, Palmer had 32 inches. That goes to show how even a fairly unremarkable winter was able to dish out the snow back then.
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TT-SEA
A bright sunny day after a frosty morning. We hit 29.4 for a low this morning, and currently at 3:00PM its 50.7 degrees.
Also current Dew Point is pretty low at 28.5 degrees.
HMMMM Maybe I was a little premature in thinking the pattern change was going to last.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 245 PM PST TUE MAR 22 2005
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA REMAINS HIGHLY SPLIT.
BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING FARTHER S INTO OREGON RATHER THAN RIGHT INTO W WA. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND LOOK MODERATELY HEAVY...THE THREAT OF FLOODING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW THIS YEAR I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER RUNS AND VERIFYING ANALYSES TAKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO NRN CA/EXTREME SRN OREGON LEAVING WESTERN WA WITH A MODERATE OCCLUSION AT BEST.
ALBRECHT
Also current Dew Point is pretty low at 28.5 degrees.
HMMMM Maybe I was a little premature in thinking the pattern change was going to last.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 245 PM PST TUE MAR 22 2005
DISCUSSION...THE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA REMAINS HIGHLY SPLIT.
BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING FARTHER S INTO OREGON RATHER THAN RIGHT INTO W WA. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND LOOK MODERATELY HEAVY...THE THREAT OF FLOODING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW THIS YEAR I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER RUNS AND VERIFYING ANALYSES TAKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO NRN CA/EXTREME SRN OREGON LEAVING WESTERN WA WITH A MODERATE OCCLUSION AT BEST.
ALBRECHT
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