Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

Johnny · #361 Postby **Johnny** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:21 pm

Thanks for the update Jeff...much appreciated.

I fully expect the forecast models to reverse and show no winter storm at all by this time tomorrow.

More than likely this is what will happen. That's just the way it is here in Southeast, Texas however...as Jeff pointed out, the GFS is not the only model showing the possibility of a winter storm for Texas over this time period. Will all the models that are showing this winter storm go poof at the same time? What are the chances of that?

#362 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:27 pm

Here's the closing line from the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO evening update discussion:

"EYES ARE NOW ON THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY."

:hmm:

KatDaddy · #363 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:41 pm

Hey Portastorm this time is yours. With all the models I have been watching and with the consistency I think you have a decent chance for a wintery Christmas. We were lucky enough to have a white Christmas in 2004 along the TX coastal areas. Areas from Houston northward had nothing. Extremely rare. I dont expect to see snow anytime soon after our 3" Christmas Eve snow in 2004. It was truley one of the most amazing weather events I have ever experienced.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #364 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:46 pm

Portastorm wrote:Here's the closing line from the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO evening update discussion:

"EYES ARE NOW ON THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY."

When NWS San Antonio/Austin get on board early on something like this, I begin to smell a Winter weather cancel is not too far behind.

aggiecutter · #365 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:15 pm

Keep eye on the Ensembles and the EURO until about Thursday or Friday, then after that, the GFS should have a good handle on the situation, but you can be rest assured that there will be some model waffling between now and the end of the week, particularly by the operational GFS. What has me very encouraged is that the Ensembles and the EURO have very similar solutions. As I mentioned above, Central plains high and a NW Gulf Coast low is the recipe for a major winter storm for central and northern Texas. This is the solution of both the Ensembles and the EURO.

Extremeweatherguy · #366 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:36 pm

well, the weekend weather man on Fox just said "no white christmas this year" so I guess that's it folks! No white christmas. :cry:

It is going to be funny if a week from now he is back on talking about snow moving across the state and winter weather warnings.

BTW: The 0z GFS is just now coming in. I will be posting details of the latest run once they become available.

Website · #367 Postby **Brent** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:09 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Here's the closing line from the Austin/San Antonio NWSFO evening update discussion:

"EYES ARE NOW ON THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY."

When NWS San Antonio/Austin get on board early on something like this, I begin to smell a Winter weather cancel is not too far behind.

That's always what happens here. :roll:

cheezyWXguy · #368 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:21 pm

Well the 0z is up to hour 132 and at that point it shows a 1040 high in the NW already...lets hope this run looks as good as the 12z

Extremeweatherguy · #369 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:27 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Well the 0z is up to hour 132 and at that point it shows a 1040 high in the NW already...lets hope this run looks as good as the 12z

It is also showing a 1005mb low down near brownsville at that point as well. Looks like this will probably be another promising run. However, the 1044mb high and 1005mb low are slightly weaker than the 18z run.

Yankeegirl · #370 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:30 pm

Well lets just keep our fingers crossed that we at least get some cooler weather... It really sucked going Christmas shopping today in shorts!!! :roll:

Extremeweatherguy · #371 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:35 pm

the 0z run looks much quicker with the system, but still showing very cold with likely winter weather for many in TX...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml
^^Christmas eve morning. Snow and sleet falling in central TX...in east TX, upper atmosphere temps. are rapidly cooling with some mixing of precip. types looking possible.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml
^^Sunrise Christmas eve. Snow/sleet reaches all the way to Houston with 540 thickness line and 0C 850mb line all the way to the coast!^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
^^Christmas eve afternoon. Light snow/sleet showers remain with temps. struggling to get much above 40F. Atmosphere temps. are very cold with 850mb temps down to well below 0C for much of the state.^^

So if this run is correct, the cold air and precip. could get here much earlier and then leave much sooner (basically it shows a much faster moving system). We may now be talking about a Christmas eve event more than a Christmas day event. However, it is amazing to note that this run STILL shows winter weather (5th GFS run in a row now)! It will be interesting to see what the hours beyond 162 look like. I wonder if it will show more overrunning for Christmas day (If so..it could mean more snow/sleet then). I will have more updates soon..

UPDATE: Christmas forecast now in (post below this) and it looks COLD!

Extremeweatherguy · #372 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:45 pm

holy! Look at the cold air being pumped in here Christmas day! The 534 and 528 thickness line may even reach us! Also, the model shows more light snow possible during the day:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml
^^Christmas morning. VERY cold upper air temps. with surface temps. likely near freezing.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Christmas evening. VERY cold upper air temps. remain with possible snow flurries developing. Surface temps. in the 30s.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Morning of the 26th. Cold air pocket sitting right over Houston (we are in 528 thickness levels!). Temperatures below freezing.^^

If anything...the models are trending much COLDER, not warmer. I think a big ticket winter weather event, followed by a very cold pocket of air is looking very possible around Christmas.

Yankeegirl · #373 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:51 pm

I will ask Santa for some snow for Christmas... But under the trees outside... :thermo:

wxman22 · #374 Postby **wxman22** » Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:57 pm

Interesting 0z GFS precipitation type:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... hr168hr180

WhiteShirt · #375 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:34 am

When will the cold weather get here? the sooner the better!

Extremeweatherguy · #376 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:41 am

WhiteShirt wrote:When will the cold weather get here? the sooner the better!

If the 0z is correct, then the REALLY cold stuff will likely get here the evening of the 23rd with even colder conditions building in on the 24th, 25th and 26th. It then modifies us a bit on the 27th and 28th before bringing in another round of cold air and possible winter weather just before New Years.

The very first cold front will likely arrive next Thursday though with more mild weather by next Friday/Saturday (the 22nd and 23rd) Highs will likely be in the 60s again (a big change from the current 79-81F) by the end of the next week.

We are currently about 3/4 days away from relief and 6/7 days ahead from jackets if the latest model scenarios play out.

Yankeegirl · #377 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 12:47 am

well make it get here really quick... maybe we should point our fans the other way and turn them all on at the same time and try to pull in thecolder air quicker? :lol:

Kelarie · #378 Postby **Kelarie** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:55 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 AM CST MON DEC 18 2006

THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD BE A WINTERY MIX FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. THE THICKNESS VALUES FALL BELOW 546 DAM CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THRU THE CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS FROPA WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC...WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. THESE FACTORS WOULD PRODUCE A WINTERY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS ALWAYS WITH A FCST SEVEN DAYS OUT...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY CHANGE...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. EL NINO WINTERS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WINTER PRECIP EVENTS.

Is the world coming to the end? Austin/San Antonio again is talking up this weekend.... :eek:

Extremeweatherguy · #379 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 6:55 am

the 6z GFS is still faster with the system, but even so it STILL shows a threat of winter weather across the state (though not as significant a storm and not quite as cold as the 0z..still very cold though). However, this much faster scenario is probably derived on the fact that the 0z was also fast (the 6z data is based off the 0z). I am much more interested in seeing today's 12z run.

The 6z is showing a high Christmas eve in the 40s, a low Christmas morning near or below freezing, a high Christmas day in the 40s (not 30s anymore, because it shows the clouds/moisture already gone at that point).

The main things that will determine the severity of the event will be the speed of the weather system and the exact amount of cold air. Hopefully later model runs today can answer these questions.

BTW, here is the latest NWS forecast for Christmas Eve in north Houston:

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.

Extremeweatherguy · #380 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Dec 18, 2006 6:59 am

Also, JB is now saying that this system will have, "snows to the I-35 corridor, perhaps beyond".

BTW: The 0Z EURO also continues to look interesting. Here is what it is showing for 0z 12-25-06 (a.k.a. About 6pm Christmas Eve):

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

Texas Winter Weather Thread #3 - GFS showing cold christmas

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