Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Quixotic]

Bastardi going with 4-8 for DFW.

Yeah he had you guys shut down for two to three day less than 24 hours ago. I like Joe, but he has propensity to overhype and he loves to hug the Euro. Risky to do down here. Probably works better across the NE but not in Texas.

I don’t care for JB at all. He’s a grifter.

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtu.be/O5zGkqAWsWE?feature=shared

[dhweather]

Bastardi going with 4-8 for DFW.

He hyped the 9-12" for days, then all the sudden went to "we said 4-8" all along". - the jester is going to break him.

[gpsnowman]

Bastardi going with 4-8 for DFW.

He hyped the 9-12" for days, then all the sudden wen to "we said 4-8" all along". - the jester is going to break him.

He is a hype machine.

[losf1981]

I will say that i DO think we will see snow in the Wichita Falls area Thursday. But how much is the question. It could be anything from just a few flurries to 1-3 inches of snow. I will like to see more data before completely leaning one way or the other.

Thanks for the WF specific info!

[bubba hotep]

Another unique thing about this setup is that one of the major players is just now moving onshore in Western Canada and won't dive into the US for another 18ish hours. The speed and trajectory of that feature as it races down the Rockies plays a pretty significant role in what happens across Texas Thursday.

[txtwister78]

18z GEFS ensemble. You can see it's trying to put a little snow on the back end of the precip as colder air in the upper levels sweeps further east just as precip is ending.

[KeriCarter]

Hey, I tried to donate to the forum using the menu button and this message popped up.
"This organization can't accept donations right now."
Is there a better way?

[txtwister78]

Another unique thing about this setup is that one of the major players is just now moving onshore in Western Canada and won't dive into the US for another 18ish hours. The speed and trajectory of that feature as it races down the Rockies plays a pretty significant role in what happens across Texas Thursday.

That's a great point Bubba. I've been watching 500mb vorticity (great tool for tracking all this) and there are subtle but important differences in how some of the models have handled that which as you point out can still lead to some changes as we saw with the NAM 12z to 18z

[dhweather]

The 18Z NAM is back to 6-8" over most of the metroplex.

[txtwister78]

https://youtu.be/O5zGkqAWsWE?feature=shared

I spit out my water laughing at this just now. I was expecting a weather briefing or something. Lol.

[rwfromkansas]

Another unique thing about this setup is that one of the major players is just now moving onshore in Western Canada and won't dive into the US for another 18ish hours. The speed and trajectory of that feature as it races down the Rockies plays a pretty significant role in what happens across Texas Thursday.

That's a great point Bubba. I've been watching 500mb vorticity (great tool for tracking all this) and there are subtle but important differences in how some of the models have handled that which as you point out can still lead to some changes as we saw with the NAM 12z to 18z

Is the cold shortwave that it will maybe/maybe not phase with coming from Canada? For some reason I thought it was further south into the PNW. Gosh. No wonder actual forecasters spend so much time reading multiple models looking for all these details.

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtu.be/O5zGkqAWsWE?feature=shared

I spit out my water laughing at this just now. I was expecting a weather briefing or something. Lol.

I just felt it represented the board here recently.

[Iceresistance]

Another unique thing about this setup is that one of the major players is just now moving onshore in Western Canada and won't dive into the US for another 18ish hours. The speed and trajectory of that feature as it races down the Rockies plays a pretty significant role in what happens across Texas Thursday.

It needs to speed up so it can phase with the trough!

[Quixotic]

Another unique thing about this setup is that one of the major players is just now moving onshore in Western Canada and won't dive into the US for another 18ish hours. The speed and trajectory of that feature as it races down the Rockies plays a pretty significant role in what happens across Texas Thursday.

So what’s the positive? Not doubting you but I’m don’t know enough to analyze H5 features beyond the rudimentary.

[snownado]

The 18Z NAM is back to 6-8" over most of the metroplex.

https://i.ibb.co/3ksDJmL/namconus-asnow-scus-29.png

A lot of that is sleet (as the image indicates).

[Brandon8181]

Hey, I tried to donate to the forum using the menu button and this message popped up.
"This organization can't accept donations right now."
Is there a better way?

I tried to check on this too.

[Ralph's Weather]

Another day and we don't know more about how this will play out. We do know that there is massive boom potential, but without 100% knowing that a good phase will occur there is also massive bust potential. If this phases the foot snow totals may be realized along with multi inch sleet totals.

[txtwister78]

The 18Z NAM is back to 6-8" over most of the metroplex.

https://i.ibb.co/3ksDJmL/namconus-asnow-scus-29.png

Yeah tropical tidbits is incorporating sleet and maybe even freezing rain into that output. If you pull up the 18z run on WB for example it looks much different.

[foulbeast]

https://youtu.be/O5zGkqAWsWE?feature=shared

I spit out my water laughing at this just now. I was expecting a weather briefing or something. Lol.

I just felt it represented the board here recently.

Or a video of a roller coaster...