Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Red is a beautiful color! Some purple would be nice over Texas, Portastorm.

[Tireman4]

Red is a beautiful color! Some purple would be nice over Texas, Portastorm.

I thought Purple is a cold color....

[BigB0882]

You know, even if we stay in the 60s or low 70s for the rest of winter, it would still have been fun. At least we had some actual COLD weather this time around. I haven't seen any of that since the beginning of 2010, I think. I am sure there will be at least one or two more cold snaps before the end of winter, even if it is only highs in the 40s. I don't ever expect snow in Louisiana so that is always just icing on the cake. I will be happy with what we got and if we get more, then great!

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so serious question, and if this has been answered before correct me. Why when models show cold/snow long range we call it "la la land" but when they are dry and warm/hot long range we are more accepting of it. Many of times I have heard models can't be trusted after x days but yet when it shows warmth we all go Winter Cancel......

[Texas Snowman]

Because Lord Vader's presence is strong....

[Ntxw]

Ok so serious question, and if this has been answered before correct me. Why when models show cold/snow long range we call it "la la land" but when they are dry and warm/hot long range we are more accepting of it. Many of times I have heard models can't be trusted after x days but yet when it shows warmth we all go Winter Cancel......

Winter of 2011-2012 effect. Cold was always 10 days away and scarred us for life still on our minds. 12z euro is a blowtorch alright with some cold fronts bringing hot air in a thaw warm regime.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Well I just checked in at the gardening forum weather thread and there your fellow Americans are praying you fellows don't get your way!!! They've been posting pictures like mad of *their unwanted blessings* and they sure aren't pleased. I did note however there is quite the snowpack down there.

The lady from California though would happily take any and all snow at this point...she's been posting a number of links to stories regarding the historic drought in California.

I thought it would be interesting to contrast Moose Jaw with Houston using the 06Z GFS. Looks like you'll be above freezing this weekend and a little bit next week. I like our winter temperature forecast for the next week better:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/moosejaw.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs6zjan9.gif

Wishing we'd skip that precip altogether and the above freezing temps (frost is already coming through the highways)...now its what happens after the 17th the has my curiousity peeked ... I however do wish we could send 1/2 of the upcoming below freezing temps right straight to Texas though.

[dhweather]

Ok so serious question, and if this has been answered before correct me. Why when models show cold/snow long range we call it "la la land" but when they are dry and warm/hot long range we are more accepting of it. Many of times I have heard models can't be trusted after x days but yet when it shows warmth we all go Winter Cancel......

Because of climatology. Our averaged history tells us we're not below freezing on average, and we don't receive much winter precip on average. Honestly, its an anomaly when we do get a significant winter storm, it just doesn't happen that often down here. It's a lot easier to believe we will have a warm up down the road than a snow event. That's just the way it is. People in Canada (hey to screamer) would be skeptical if the GFS showed them with a significant warm up, their climatology is below freezing with wintry precip.

[wxman57]

Ok so serious question, and if this has been answered before correct me. Why when models show cold/snow long range we call it "la la land" but when they are dry and warm/hot long range we are more accepting of it. Many of times I have heard models can't be trusted after x days but yet when it shows warmth we all go Winter Cancel......

The answer is that it's all in the pattern which is forecast. You don't necessarily want to trust specifics of the model guidance in the long range, meaning whether they're forecasting 30 degrees in your area or 25 degrees. The models can't handle such details very far out. But the models can identify cold or warm flow patterns several weeks out. With this past Arctic outbreak, the models were forecasting the cross-Polar flow 2 weeks in advance. Of course, we couldn't tell exactly how cold we might get in Texas back then, but we could clearly see the cold pattern emerging both in the deterministic runs and in the ensembles.

Currently, the models (deterministic and ensembles) are indicating a progressive flow pattern with the Polar vortex staying well to the north over the coming weeks. That signals moderating temperatures for Texas. Nothing in the long-range pattern suggests another Arctic plunge into Texas for at least the next 2 weeks. Based on that, I'd say it's unlikely Texas will see any extreme cold for the next 2 weeks.

[Texas Snowman]

FWIW, hardly a springlike day in North Texas. Very foggy and still holding in the mid to upper 30s in Denison as of 1 pm.

(Actually 37 as I type this).

Lord Vader's presence is strong in Houston today. The Red River Valley, not so much.

[wxman57]

FWIW, hardly a springlike day in North Texas. Very foggy and still holding in the mid to upper 30s in Denison as of 1 pm.

(Actually 37 as I type this).

Lord Vader's presence is strong in Houston today. The Red River Valley, not so much.

The warm front is just north of College Station now. Dallas temps should top 60 tomorrow once the warm front arrives.

[gpsnowman]

Well, it is Thursday, my day off from work. Kids are at school and the wife is at work. So I decided to geek out today. Each year we bring up the winters of 77,78 and 85. I only remember 85. The Old Farmers Almanac has a weather history tool with recorded daily temperature dating back to 1960. I looked back at the months of Jan-Feb 77, Jan-Feb 78, and Jan-Feb 85 just to see how cold it was. The precipitation records are incomplete some days so I stuck with temps only. How accurate these readings are I have no idea but you can see the cold trends of those cold winters. All forthcoming numbers are taken from the Old Farmers Almanac weather history tool. All readings are form DFW airport.
January 1977
The month started out cold with three days in the 30's. For the month there were 27 overnight lows at or below freezing with the coldest reading of 10 on Jan 31. The high for the month was 67 degrees on Jan 4. Twelve times during the month did the temp drop into the teens. Five total days with highs in the 60's.
Seven in the 50's, nine in the 40's, and ten in the 30's. None lower than 34.
February 1977
Only eight freezes recorded for the month with a low of 10 on Feb 1 being the coldest. Overall a mild month with many 60's and 70's, especially the latter half of the month.
January 1978
Very cold month with a total of 29 freezes with 13 being the coldest reading on Jan 22. Nine total teens for lows. The only two days that stayed above freezing were Jan 6 and 7. Those two days also brought the highest readings of the month with highs both days at 77 degrees. It was below freezing from Jan 17 thru the 22. A nice stretch of cold weather.
February 1978
A total of 25 freezes for the month with a low of 9 being the coldest on Feb 19. Three teens recorded for the month. According the weather tool, from January 8 to Feb 23 every single overnight low was at or below freezing. A total of 47 consecutive nights at or below freezing. That, my friends, is how it is done!!!
January 1985
This is a period I remember well living near Dallas. A total of 18 freezes for the month with a low of 10 being the coldest on Jan 20. Highest reading that month was 69 on the 19th before the bottom fell out.
February 1985
First half of the month was quite brutal. Feb 1-4 was below freezing with a low of 7 on the 2nd being the coldest reading of the month. A snowstorm hit Dallas during this time I believe. Eleven total freezes for the month all before the 16th. After that it warmed considerably mild weather the rest of the month.
One thing I have noticed in recent winters compared to past winters is the overnight maximums. Some record overnight maximums have been set many times over the past few winters. Yes, we have cold stretches but man, the overnight lows at times are tropical like. I don't type much. My fingers are tired. See ya'll later!

[Ntxw]

Out of curiosity wxman57 mentioned 85-86 as one of his favorite winters, wow and I can see why. NAO/Greenland block was dominant but sent the cold air to Europe and the Pacific +EPO flooded the country with zonal flow that would probably cause us cold mongerers to cliff dive . 80s and 70s galore and not just a few days. Be glad this is not in our future, though the current thaw does have resemblance to that pattern but luckily the Pacific is world's apart.





Sea level pressures indicate the gulf of Alaska probably had one of the coldest pools on record

[opticsguy]

I remember the winter of 77-78 up in Ludington, MI. After the lake (Lake Michigan) froze over, there was nothing between the N. Pole and us to stop the cold. Then a blizzard that covered our house so that we had to go out a window because our doors wouldn't open.

Spring of 2013 was frustrating. I lost 3 tomato crops due to the late freezes. I will use the EPO forecast from now on to time my plantings.

[TheProfessor]

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This will be refreshing for North Texas!

[Ntxw]

Latest euro weeklies isn't too shabby. Transient cold shots in the thaw then -EPO/-PNA establishes, plenty of digging shortwaves out west to boot.

[orangeblood]

Latest euro weeklies isn't too shabby. Transient cold shots in the thaw then -EPO/-PNA establishes, plenty of digging shortwaves out west to boot.

I'm not sure how I feel about the weeklies over the past few weeks considering they showed a massive ridge over the Northeast US during the 1st week of January around Christmas. Instead, one of the deepest Polar Vortexes we've seen in years set up shop in that vicinity.....

[somethingfunny]

It's foggier than I've ever seen before here in Garland. DFW Airport is reporting 0.06 miles of visibility (for reference, 316.8 feet) and Dallas Love Field is literally reporting "0.00 miles". I'm not sure how that's possible but here's the official observation.

Current Conditions
En Español

Fog
47°F
8°C
Humidity93%
Wind SpeedE 7 mph
Barometer29.99 in (1015.5 mb)
Dewpoint45°F (7°C)
Visibility0.00 mi
Wind Chill44°F (7°C)
Last Update on 9 Jan 11:53 pm CST

Current conditions at
Dallas Love Field (KDAL)
Lat: 32.86°N Lon: 96.85°W Elev: 440ft.

[gpsnowman]

Good morning weather people. Still quite foggy around the Metroplex this morning. Drivng up Hwy. 360 this morning you could not see more than 30 feet in front of you in some spots. Hoping to hear some thunder later today.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and I'd like to thank you Wxman57 for my forecast (I see I missed that).

I'm very grateful since BlizzND's brother currently is undergoing surgery for brain cancer (please keep him in your prayers folks) so he is posting very little right now.