Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

This might be the start of the big OOF!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_45.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_45.png

EDIT: Nevermind, it may be the one behind this system!

It's really only the first run that shows the potential. -EPO -> -AO and -NAO locking it down.

Yes, the temperature anomalies are really showing this potential! I'll try to post pictures later on this once all of the regions have the 12z GFS run completed, what a run that is!

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh, here comes the pain!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_51.png

[Ntxw]

12z GFS, the 500mb projections looks a lot like a December version of Feb 2021. Not comparing just saying the players are doing similar things. The CFSv2 has been trying to paint this period in a similar fashion. Get all 3 teleconnections to align and the dam breaks.

[bubba hotep]

Probably need to wait until beyond Dec 10 or maybe even mid-month before things really get interesting for the Southern Plains.

[snowballzzz]

Wowzers. The 12Z GFS is really showing that cold Christmas week. Obviously way out and in lala land but if that were to verify....

[Ntxw]

Wowzers. The 12Z GFS is really showing that cold Christmas week. Obviously way out and in lala land but if that were to verify....

Fantasy range but that's one helluva arctic outbreak. All starts with that big storm next week.

[Iceresistance]

WOW!

Radar

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif

Snowfall potential (Of course there is a DFW Dry Slot!)

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png

Ice totals (The one in Oklahoma is from an earlier system)

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GFS ends the run with a storm that could bring a White Christmas, because why not!

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/1600466118585581569

[snowballzzz]

Will Texas finally have a below normal Christmas for the first time in who knows how long? I'm feeling pretty confident that the latter half of the month will be chilly. Now to watch the models flip flop for the next two weeks!

[Ntxw]

Also while all this is happening the Strat PV is getting attacked, warming. It's already in a very weakened state so probably safe bet to say overall we will likely see a -AO winter, with brief rebounds to lesser values.

[Ntxw]

-EPO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z GFS, the 500mb projections looks a lot like a December version of Feb 2021. Not comparing just saying the players are doing similar things. The CFSv2 has been trying to paint this period in a similar fashion. Get all 3 teleconnections to align and the dam breaks.

Youre right. 9-10 days out, the pattern looks very similar. Blocking over the top with a PV below. The GFS will not have a full grasp on things but it looks very similar. Basically the ensemble you posted is what we are looking for.

Its off in la la land, but the blocking post 10 days in the arctic is wild.

Were getting closer to some clarity. Not there yet, but getting much closer.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS, the 500mb projections looks a lot like a December version of Feb 2021. Not comparing just saying the players are doing similar things. The CFSv2 has been trying to paint this period in a similar fashion. Get all 3 teleconnections to align and the dam breaks.

Youre right. 9-10 days out, the pattern looks very similar. Blocking over the top with a PV below. The GFS will not have a full grasp on things but it looks very similar. Basically the ensemble you posted is what we are looking for.

Its off in la la land, but the blocking post 10 days in the arctic is wild.

Were getting closer to some clarity. Not there yet, but getting much closer.

Yeah not really concerned about model maps of OPs one way or the other. We know from pattern recognition what to look for. It isn't that the models are flipping, it's been trending more favorable ~12-15th period of the change as it nears. The OPs will follow.

[wxman57]

I am 100% confident that the long-range GFS will verify - somewhere. Give it a few days and the GFS will be predicting 80s across Texas around the 21st. I don't think the latest iteration of the GFS takes my wall into consideration.

Historically, though, the week of Christmas is famous for major Arctic outbreaks (1983, 1989, 2004 snow miracle).

[gpsnowman]

I am 100% confident that the long-range GFS will verify - somewhere. Give it a few days and the GFS will be predicting 80s across Texas around the 21st. I don't think the latest iteration of the GFS takes my wall into consideration.

Historically, though, the week of Christmas is famous for major Arctic outbreaks (1983, 1989, 2004 snow miracle).

Also the Christmas Eve snow event in 2009. I will always remember putting together my daughter's kitchen set while looking out at blizzard like conditions. Just beautiful.

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has a very different 500mb pattern across North America at 00Z Dec. 17th than the GFS. The EC would tend to send the cold SE rather than S. New GFS has done worse than the previous GFS as far as 500mb forecast (Ryan Maue tweet). I foresee big changes coming in the long-range GFS forecast.

Check the GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2022120712&fh=228

Compare to EC:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2022120700&fh=240

EC has very little cold air in western Canada by the 17th. Quite different from the GFS.

[Ntxw]

00Z Euro has a very different 500mb pattern across North America at 00Z Dec. 17th than the GFS. The EC would tend to send the cold SE rather than S. New GFS has done worse than the previous GFS as far as 500mb forecast (Ryan Maue tweet). I foresee big changes coming in the long-range GFS forecast.

Check the GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2022120712&fh=228

Compare to EC:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2022120700&fh=240

EC has very little cold air in western Canada by the 17th. Quite different from the GFS.

Appreciate your thoughts! I don't think the EC will be correct either, the PNA isn't positive or forecasted to be that positive. If anything the SE and the East coast will be at greater risk of glancing blow than the interior and west. The EPS even at 0z develops a trof over the west vs the OP guidance, so disconnect there.

[HockeyTx82]

WOW!

Radar
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif

Snowfall potential (Of course there is a DFW Dry Slot!)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png

Ice totals (The one in Oklahoma is from an earlier system)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png

That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.

[wxman57]

WOW!

Radar
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif

Snowfall potential (Of course there is a DFW Dry Slot!)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png

Ice totals (The one in Oklahoma is from an earlier system)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png

That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.

GFS fantasy for now. I believe it as much as I believed its forecast of Hurricane Ian to strike Lake Charles.