Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

how much of that is snow?

All of it!!

The GEFS looks even wetter, looks like something out of 2015. However, not much in the way of winter wx.

[Ntxw]

Just because I have free time and wanted to stir something up while our minds are on SNOW.

500mb composite of Feb 2010 from the 8th-12th

[Ntxw]

Some more fun posts! 2009 Dec 2nd vs 2018 snow cover. Note though by the 10th 2009 was mostly covered down to Kansas.

[Brent]

Just because I have free time and wanted to stir something up while our minds are on SNOW.

500mb composite of Feb 2010 from the 8th-12th

https://images2.imgbox.com/a1/14/AKoIqy5i_o.gif

weird how it doesn't even look like a big storm and yet it dropped a foot at DFW I see the shortwave going down CA before that though

[Ntxw]

Just because I have free time and wanted to stir something up while our minds are on SNOW.

500mb composite of Feb 2010 from the 8th-12th

https://images2.imgbox.com/a1/14/AKoIqy5i_o.gif

weird how it doesn't even look like a big storm and yet it dropped a foot at DFW I see the shortwave going down CA before that though

The storm itself was rather ordinary and run of the mill. In fact we've seen many storms stronger than it since, heck in the same season Christmas Eve storm was much more powerful. Even the storm later in March the same year was more intense. What it did though was the ignition of the roaring subtropical jet that made it's way out of the Pacific. We remember the storm for the storm itself, but not many realize the consistent qpf and snow bands actually came from the subtropical jet before the parent storm which only dumped a few inches overnight.


Satellite image of the 9th before it hit



zonal winds

[spencer817]

Nothing interesting on the models so far tonight, starting to think this is a rain event. At least we'll get some good precip rates out of it.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is trending much wetter now for north Texas vs southeast Texas. Starting to look more like a big event for DFW compared to the Houston area.

[Brent]

Nothing interesting on the models so far tonight, starting to think this is a rain event. At least we'll get some good precip rates out of it.

well if we can't get a snowstorm I wanna go for 2015 at least GFS really lost the snowstorm to the east too

[Haris]

Cpv, It is one run. We will go through plenty of these qpf switches. Cant make a definite call till all guidance is on board and around Thursday.

[OKMet83]

GFS run looks like garbage to me with it's handling of the cold air coming... As I said above It does a poor job with shallow cold air... Canadian model more in line with what could transpire IMO... waiting to see if the trend with it continues.. For those who just follow this thread for info please know we likely will not have a true handle on this until late Wed into Thu at the earliest.... A lot of these winter storm setups come down to what we call "NowCasting" or basically watching it as the event is upon us and unfolding... They can be extremely tricky to forecast and certainly a lot of times give us a good challenge!

[Cpv17]

Interesting that the GFS and Euro are both in agreement about a second system for the mid part of next week.

[Ntxw]

Interesting that the GFS and Euro are both in agreement about a second system for the mid part of next week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120300/gfs_z500a_us_39.png

Cold air on all models for that system is largely out. Milder in Canada. Likely a good rain producer.

[Haris]

EUro is very S with the heavy rains compared to gfs

[Brent]

Euro is colder again... this is gonna be so close to a N TX snowstorm

and definitely the heavier rain is still south unlike the GFS

Wichita Falls around 6 inches this run... dusting just north of Denton.... Wichita Falls barely had anything at 12z

[Cpv17]

EUro is very S with the heavy rains compared to gfs

The CMC is further south too. I hope DFW can at least get a dusting of snow from this. I want my 3-4” of rain and I want DFW to get at least a dusting from this. If that happens I’ll be fairly happy.

[Brent]

EUro is very S with the heavy rains compared to gfs

The CMC is further south too. I hope DFW can at least get a dusting of snow from this. I want my 3-4” of rain and I want DFW to get at least a dusting from this. If that happens I’ll be fairly happy.

I'll gladly trade the heavier rain for snow...

[Haris]

Yea , give our NTXexans a bit of snow, (not much) hehehe and some strong storms and heavy rains here and its a success!

[Brent]

Yea , give our NTXexans a bit of snow, (not much) hehehe and some strong storms and heavy rains here and its a success!

I think we earned that after last year...

[Brent]

Euro snow map is this close DFW

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS still hammering OK on Sat as it has the mid level energy up that direction. Other models stack the mid and surface lows keeping the precip shield on Sat much further S. Am I correct to expect the more atacked solution is most likely? Seems that past Guild lows struggle to get precip west of DFW much less into OK. I expect that the snow band on Sat will extend from areas SW of DFW to SE OK and points east from there. If the front can get enough cold down prior to the surface low then Friday could be interesting also.