Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Yukon Cornelius]

I don't even see hints of possible cool weather in the future. 82 for a high next week?!

[Ntxw]

Yep, zonal flow. If its going to change then better show it fast because soon any patter change will take us into March. Already threw in the towel though. Only wishful thinking at this point.

[Portastorm]

It's a sad Winter thread when we are all reduced to memory lane.

But what the heck ... gotta talk about something, right?! I wasn't in Texas in 1983 but my brother was living in Austin. He lived in an apartment complex which was partially flooded after numerous pipes burst. This came, of course, after the deep freeze and when temperatures went above freezing. He was miserable. No power, no water for 3-4 days IIRC. I was here in Austin, however, for the 1989 freeze. It got down to 4 degrees one morning. I remember it well and remember similar things happening in terms of many pipes bursting. I was dating a girl at the time from Del Rio (who I ended up marrying) and spent a few days during that time at her parent's ranch house. It was a double-wide manufactured home and her dad was a nut. There he was underneath the home using a blowtorch to try and thaw out their pipes. I kept thinking "this dude is gonna burn the house down!' Thankfully that didn't happen.

[TheProfessor]

Unfortunately I am too young to have experienced just about all of these record cold events.

[Tejas89]

This has been the biggest dud of a winter ever. How I miss the 70's/80's when we could count on a couple or more true blue northers every winter regardless of ninos....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Models showing a 1053 high @ 192 hrs...... in the middle of the Atlantic.

[Portastorm]

Spotted this just now on Twitter from Michael Ventrice, where he talks about the "volatility" of the PNA looking ahead:

[weatherdude1108]

It's a sad Winter thread when we are all reduced to memory lane.

But what the heck ... gotta talk about something, right?! I wasn't in Texas in 1983 but my brother was living in Austin. He lived in an apartment complex which was partially flooded after numerous pipes burst. This came, of course, after the deep freeze and when temperatures went above freezing. He was miserable. No power, no water for 3-4 days IIRC. I was here in Austin, however, for the 1989 freeze. It got down to 4 degrees one morning. I remember it well and remember similar things happening in terms of many pipes bursting. I was dating a girl at the time from Del Rio (who I ended up marrying) and spent a few days during that time at her parent's ranch house. It was a double-wide manufactured home and her dad was a nut. There he was underneath the home using a blowtorch to try and thaw out their pipes. I kept thinking "this dude is gonna burn the house down!' Thankfully that didn't happen.

I don't remember much about 1983 (I was in San Antonio), except I think that is when the bathtub faucet froze at my parents house (inside). It is adjacent to the northeast wall of the house. The water would not turn on. Had to pour boiling water over it to get it going again, and we had our own skating rink on the back porch leaving the spray nozzle on the basketball goal, spraying the patio over night to make our own little Winter wonderland under the mammoth Arctic high pressure system. The water also froze on a nearby large tree branch, and snapped it onto the patio from the weight, which my parents weren't happy about.

I remember 1989, also at my parents in San Antonio. They lost half of the growth on their evergreen Ligustrum hedges out in back when it got to 6 in San Antonio. Wild stuff.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS has 0.28" of precip for Mesquite through 10 days. I'm getting concerned we may see little to no rain in February. In 2014 we had 0.60" , 2013 had 1.74", >2" every other year since 2010.

[Tejas89]

This super nino has meant seasonal precip extremes for Texas. Recall we had a record dry spell last summer... smack in the middle of a record-shattering wet year.

[Brent]

0z GFS has a really wet pattern in the day 10-16 range... fantasy rain alert!

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS has a really wet pattern in the day 10-16 range... fantasy rain alert!

Yeah the latest long range computer models are continuing to indicate a wet pattern returning to Texas in the next 1-2 weeks. Confidence is increasing in these solutions panning out.

[wxman57]

The pattern I'm seeing in the 6Z GFS run is neither cold nor wet for Houston (below). In fact, it looks like the next few weeks were designed by me. Daily highs in the 70s to near 80 and little in the way of precip. Good biking weather (for February).

[Portastorm]

We'll see ... I think most of us around here are so fried mentally that we'll believe it when rain is actually falling.

I'm sure there have been a few which I'm forgetting ... but this really has been the WORST "winter" season I can recall in many years. By now I thought we'd see some hint of a few, late season real winter days. But no. Nothing but a blowtorch.

[South Texas Storms]

We'll see ... I think most of us around here are so fried mentally that we'll believe it when rain is actually falling.

I'm sure there have been a few which I'm forgetting ... but this really has been the WORST "winter" season I can recall in many years. By now I thought we'd see some hint of a few, late season real winter days. But no. Nothing but a blowtorch.

I hear you Porta. Both me and my coworkers (even wxman57!) are all stunned that we have not had even 1 "threat" of frozen precip or cold temps across central and southeast TX so far this winter. I think I've had maybe 1 freeze at my place in Houston.

[wxman57]

We'll see ... I think most of us around here are so fried mentally that we'll believe it when rain is actually falling.

I'm sure there have been a few which I'm forgetting ... but this really has been the WORST "winter" season I can recall in many years. By now I thought we'd see some hint of a few, late season real winter days. But no. Nothing but a blowtorch.

I'd put the winter of 1985-1986 as your worst nightmare. I remember gardening in the warm sun all winter. Hardly a cloud in the sky most days. Temps hit the 90s in February. Now that's a winter!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think it all boils down to 1-2 El nino region being too warm, and the warm water off the coast of mexico. With that said, the lack of storminess for a super nino is shocking. At least though we would get lots of rain. I think it will catch up to us in time though. When, i have no idea, but we will all get back on track with rainfall around spring time.

[srainhoutx]

Enjoy this weather while we have it. If, and it's a big IF the longer range CFSv2 Monthly Outlook for March is correct and the indicators via the MJO prove correct as well, we could see a wet pattern developing very late February into March. Time will tell, but as we have seen since late last Fall and early Winter the MJO/Pacific convective activity has been the main driver of the patterns across our Region.

[Ntxw]

The wet pattern I have faith in. MAM will be good. The cold pattern I do not. It will struggle to get below 50F at night here the next week or two. 1047-1050mb high in s-central Canada will slip southeast producing a Valentines day cold outbreak east of the MS. We won't even feel a blip.

Some years we stick to this thread if there is a legit threat of cold in March until the equinox. If this keeps up though we may just transition to the spring thread per usual meteorological months (MAM) 1st of March.

[gpsnowman]

The wet pattern I have faith in. MAM will be good. The cold pattern I do not. It will struggle to get below 50F at night here the next week or two. 1047-1050mb high in s-central Canada will slip southeast producing a Valentines day cold outbreak east of the MS. We won't even feel a blip.

Some years we stick to this thread if there is a legit threat of cold in March until the equinox. If this keeps up though we may just transition to the spring thread per usual meteorological months (MAM) 1st of March.

Man I miss getting high. Pressure that is.