Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Metalicwx220]

Again, I'm pretty sure that would have gone through before temps drop below freezing. That just shows precipitation over a certain period. The precip can come and go before temps get to freezing. Someone else could explain this better than I can...

Im preety sure thats snow because the gfs snow map above has like a dusting to like half an inch in like extreme like northeast florida.

[BigB0882]

Again, I'm pretty sure that would have gone through before temps drop below freezing. That just shows precipitation over a certain period. The precip can come and go before temps get to freezing. Someone else could explain this better than I can...

Im preety sure thats snow because the gfs snow map above has like a dusting to like half an inch in like extreme like northeast florida.

Like, ok. You could be right, someone else can chime in that knows how to read those better than I do.

[Metalicwx220]

Again, I'm pretty sure that would have gone through before temps drop below freezing. That just shows precipitation over a certain period. The precip can come and go before temps get to freezing. Someone else could explain this better than I can...

Im preety sure thats snow because the gfs snow map above has like a dusting to like half an inch in like extreme like northeast florida.

Like, ok. You could be right, someone else can chime in that knows how to read those better than I do.

LOL! ha
Here the other freak snowstorm around 252-278 hours timeframe.

[Metalicwx220]

IS this an error?

[bamajammer4eva]

Again, I'm pretty sure that would have gone through before temps drop below freezing. That just shows precipitation over a certain period. The precip can come and go before temps get to freezing. Someone else could explain this better than I can...

Im preety sure thats snow because the gfs snow map above has like a dusting to like half an inch in like extreme like northeast florida.

Like, ok. You could be right, someone else can chime in that knows how to read those better than I do.

It is my understanding that the temps are for the timeframe the model says but the precip is for the 6 hrs prior to that time so the precip would have likely ended before the freezing temps arrived. To find out if precip would still be falling at that time, check the precip forecast for the next 6 hr timeframe and that would tell you if precip would still be falling. There is a tread on here for help with model reading.

[Metalicwx220]

This run looks cold with all that snow. I guess a snowstorm came accross the deep south with txhe cold air in place.

[Metalicwx220]

Again, I'm pretty sure that would have gone through before temps drop below freezing. That just shows precipitation over a certain period. The precip can come and go before temps get to freezing. Someone else could explain this better than I can...

Im preety sure thats snow because the gfs snow map above has like a dusting to like half an inch in like extreme like northeast florida.

Like, ok. You could be right, someone else can chime in that knows how to read those better than I do.

It is my understanding that the temps are for the timeframe the model says but the precip is for the 6 hrs prior to that time so the precip would have likely ended before the freezing temps arrived. To find out if precip would still be falling at that time, check the precip forecast for the next 6 hr timeframe and that would tell you if precip would still be falling. There is a tread on here for help with model reading.[/quote]
YA... Its likely thats snow. Its a six hour blah blah but the temps could be down below freezing at the beginning of the run.

[Metalicwx220]

High Low Precip(in) Snow(in) Forecast Avg. High Avg. Low
Tue
2/1/2011 66° 56° 0.03 0 More clouds than sun 62° 39°
Wed
2/2/2011 71° 44° 0.14 0 Rain and a t-storm possible 62° 39°
Thu
2/3/2011 50° 39° 0.89 0 Cloudy, rain possible; cooler 62° 39°
Fri
2/4/2011 46° 37° 0.01 0 Mostly cloudy, rain possible 62° 39°
Sat
2/5/2011 57° 37° 0 0 Partly sunny and warmer 62° 39°
Sun
2/6/2011 62° 39° 0 0 Times of clouds and sun 62° 39°
Mon
2/7/2011 61° 45° 0 0 Partly sunny 63° 39°
Tue
2/8/2011 68° 33° 0.15 0 Cloudy 63° 40°
Wed
2/9/2011 54° 28° 0.05 0 Colder with partial sunshine 63° 40°
Thu
2/10/2011 51° 26° 0.02 0 Rain and ice 63° 40°
Fri
2/11/2011 49° 30° 0 0 Sunny 63° 40°
Sat
2/12/2011 53° 33° 0 0 Times of clouds and sun 63° 40°
Sun
2/13/2011 61° 33° 0 0 Mostly sunny 64° 40°
???? 51 degrees with ice?? Savannah Georgia! Grain of salt

Freezing Rain Wednesday Night
Lo 28° RealFeel® 20° Night

NW at 9 mph
Gusts: 21 mph
Cold with periods of rain, watch for ice late
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorm Probability: 0%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.05 in
Amount of Rain: 0.03 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.02 inHours of Precipitation: 4 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs
Freezing Rain
Hi 51° RealFeel® 45° Day

NNW at 11 mph Thursday Feb 10
Gusts: 24 mph
Periods of rain and freezing rain Max UV Index: 3 (moderate)
Thunderstorm Probability: 0%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.02 in
Amount of Rain: 0.01 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.01 in
Hours of Precipitation: 2 hrs
Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

What does accuweather use?

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS is interesting spinning up a Gulf low after the cold air is settled in.

[Ivanhater]

Wow...NWS Mobile/Pensacola mentions winter wx as far south as I-10

THIS INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTS IN
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT CLOSE TO THE COAST THU MORNING AND
GRADUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A SFC
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF
THIS SCENARIO IS THAT THE 00Z GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH COLD AIR PRIOR TO
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO RESULT IN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
GFS FORECAST THICKNESSES INDICATE A WINTRY MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SHOWS PRIMARILY A
COLD RAIN. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO INTRODUCE ANY WINTRY WEATHER INTO THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THIS WILL BE
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST

[Ivanhater]

NWS New Orleans mentions it as well

EEP L/W TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND BY FRI THE
TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE
BUT WITH S/W ALOFT STILL OVER THE REGION THERE IS STILL THE RISK OF
SEEING LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.
MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW SHRA. THE ONE THING WE NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY IS HOW FAR THE
DEEP COLD AIR GETS. THE MDLS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER GULF LOW AND
WITH COLD AIR RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT IT
APPEARS THIS GULF LOW MAY DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE S AND E KEEPING
THE REGION VOID OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. WE WILL THEN SEE S/W RIDGING
LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER L/W TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS
ONCE AGAIN. /CAB/

[Metalicwx220]

NWS New Orleans mentions it as well

EEP L/W TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND BY FRI THE
TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE
BUT WITH S/W ALOFT STILL OVER THE REGION THERE IS STILL THE RISK OF
SEEING LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.
MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW SHRA. THE ONE THING WE NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY IS HOW FAR THE
DEEP COLD AIR GETS. THE MDLS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER GULF LOW AND
WITH COLD AIR RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT IT
APPEARS THIS GULF LOW MAY DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE S AND E KEEPING
THE REGION VOID OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. WE WILL THEN SEE S/W RIDGING
LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER L/W TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS
ONCE AGAIN. /CAB/

With this possible snowevent by late this week.... would temps have to be at 32 or could they support snow at mid to upper 30s

[Brent]

BMX, with tornadoes mentioned for Tuesday...

LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM...IT GETS EVEN MESSIER...AS A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GULF LOW REMAIN IN THE CARDS FOR
LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT GET A LOT OF ATTENTION DUE
TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM...BUT WE WILL YET AGAIN BE ON THE
THRESHOLD FOR SEEING WINTER PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. IT
CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING WITH TIME TO SEE HOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WENT AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW AT THIS TIME...HOPING THAT
IT SHOWS A BIT MORE CLARITY AS WE WORK INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

[andyis]

NWS New Orleans mentions it as well

EEP L/W TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND BY FRI THE
TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE
BUT WITH S/W ALOFT STILL OVER THE REGION THERE IS STILL THE RISK OF
SEEING LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.
MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT
A FEW SHRA. THE ONE THING WE NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY IS HOW FAR THE
DEEP COLD AIR GETS. THE MDLS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER GULF LOW AND
WITH COLD AIR RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEP IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH BUT IT
APPEARS THIS GULF LOW MAY DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE S AND E KEEPING
THE REGION VOID OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. WE WILL THEN SEE S/W RIDGING
LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER L/W TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS
ONCE AGAIN. /CAB/

With this possible snowevent by late this week.... would temps have to be at 32 or could they support snow at mid to upper 30s

Temps do not have to be down to 32 to see snow, in the past couple of years I have personally seen it snow with temps in the mid to upper 30's!

[bella_may]

I almost had a heart attack when I seen the WC forecast for south mississippi wednesday,thursday,and friday. Good chance of rain with temps below freezing all 3 days!

[tugreenie]

I almost had a heart attack when I seen the WC forecast for south mississippi wednesday,thursday,and friday. Good chance of rain with temps below freezing all 3 days!

where did you see this? I live along the 1-10 corridor near Kiln. Have not seen anything like that for this area yet

[bella_may]

I almost had a heart attack when I seen the WC forecast for south mississippi wednesday,thursday,and friday. Good chance of rain with temps below freezing all 3 days!

where did you see this? I live along the 1-10 corridor near Kiln. Have not seen anything like that for this area yet

Weather channel. It doesn't actually say snow yet but it looks like it looking at the temps below freezing and the moisture around. I live in lucedale

[Brent]

Peachtree City this afternoon, who is usually very conservative.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Ivanhater]

This could be a nice overrunning event for the Gulf coast. All the Gulf coast NWS are mentioning it for the I-10 corridor. Models are trending stronger with the Gulf low spinning up with cold air already in place. Should be interesting

[northjaxpro]

This could be a nice overrunning event for the Gulf coast. All the Gulf coast NWS are mentioning it for the I-10 corridor. Models are trending stronger with the Gulf low spinning up with cold air already in place. Should be interesting

I agree Ivanhater. Of course, much will depend on how much the Low in the GOM will deepen. The arctic air mass will modify as the week progresses as it moves southward, but if the GOM Low can intensify significantly, it may be able to pull in sufficient enough cold air to possibly bring wintry precip to areas quite far south by week's end. It will be interesting to monitor at least in the coming days this week.