Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #3161 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 2:35 am

It is beginning to look like some of you might be disappointed with tomorrow. As of 11:30pm, I am sitting at a dank 48 degrees. There was just enough rain today to supply the moisture for a lot of fog and low clouds. If the pressure gradients remain too weak, tomorrow may not be that nice.

TT-SEA · #3162 Postby **TT-SEA** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 8:21 am

I would think a strong March sun will dispose of any fog today.

Should be a VERY nice day.

Highs in the 60's and sunshine. No disappointment here!!

R-Dub · #3163 Postby **R-Dub** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 8:49 am

Currently at 5:45AM its........
Clear
45.8 degrees

Hope your right Snowwizard, but I have a feeling that by next week the models will show those strong storms splitting and us getting little if any precip. The story of this winter!

andycottle · #3164 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:57 am

Currently 48 degrees with fog and humidity 100% as of 9:03am. -- Andy

andycottle · #3165 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 12:09 pm

Viewing the latest GFS this morning, it appears that our dry spell continues right on through the 15th, in which we also have a bit of a cool down come mid-week of next week. Next threat of any showers...if we can some in here...is the morning of the 16th. Looks like we`ll have systems about every onther day after the 17th. -- Andy

snow_wizzard · #3166 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:05 pm

At 10:00am Covington is foggy and 49 degrees. This muck reminds me October more than spring. :eek:

Maybe we are starting winter over again! :lol:

andycottle · #3167 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:00 pm

Clear and sunny skies here at 12:06pm with a temp of 61. -- Andy

snow_wizzard · #3168 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:02 pm

Andy...that is amazing. We are still in the muck and 52 degrees. I guess I was half right about today.

andycottle · #3169 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:27 pm

lol...maybe so!:) Were now up to 63 as of 12:32pm. -- Andy

andycottle · #3170 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 3:30 pm

Acording to the mesonet weather obs...Bellevue is at 70 with DP of 66.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesonet/getobex ... m=48&raw=0

-- Andy

AnthonyC · #3171 Postby **AnthonyC** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 4:57 pm

Another AWESOME day...currently 66F with clear skies!! I don't know where you live Snow_Wizzard.

And the sunny/warm weather continues...and will be here for awhile. Things look sunny at least until Wednesday...although temperatures will be noticeably cooler...instead of 60s...expect around 50F. When's the next shot of rain? Probably the end of next week. The GFS introduces a fairly active, zonal flow beginning late next week that continues for the forseeable future. But before we jump on this solution, let's look back at the track history of the GFS model...it has been terrible this entire winter. So I wouldn't count on anything just yet. This weekend should be perfect...sunny and warm on Saturday...sunny and seasonal on Sunday. You can't ask for better weather!!

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #3172 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 5:51 pm

It did finally clear up...still only about 60 though.

These last two runs have got me pumped! In short, it simply gets colder, and colder, and colder for the next 5 days at least. Each day will have lower highs and lower lows than the day before. By Sunday, I expect many lows in the 20s. The real kicker is how the latest 18z shows snow on day 6. The 12z was on the edge...this is solid!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/18z ... 0_144m.htm

Right now, I will simply mention the snow chance and leave it at that. The cold...I am buying it now.

Our temps will be below normal Sunday or sooner. What a plunge!

AnthonyC · #3173 Postby **AnthonyC** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:15 pm

Snow_Wizzard,

NWS has temperatures in the middle, upper 50s on Sunday...that's definitely not below normal. And temperatures never drop below 50 next week...how can you get snow from that?! Give up on cold/snow man!!! It's not gonna happen. We can just pray for a wetter pattern.

Anthony

Currently 67F!!!

TT-SEA · #3174 Postby **TT-SEA** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:17 pm

70 degrees and sunny at my house.

I would say that is a nice day for early March!!

TT-SEA · #3175 Postby **TT-SEA** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:21 pm

I agree with Snow_Wizzard on a big pattern change though.

The middle and end of next week looks wet and wild.

I hope the state officials made a mistake declaring a drought!!

R-Dub · #3176 Postby **R-Dub** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 6:27 pm

Big difference in my micro climate today!! Went down to Marysville just now to pick up a utility trailer and it was 70 degrees, then as I started my back to my house the drop started, and by the time I got home the temp here is 61 degrees!!! Amazing that the temp can be that variable in a 3-4 mile span :eek:

Anyway I am not buying that by the end of next week we will be wet and wild. The systems will split and we might get a sprinkle or two and that will probably be it, hope I am wrong though!!

Awesome day though even though its cooler at my house, doesn't get much better for March 8-)

TT-SEA · #3177 Postby **TT-SEA** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 7:06 pm

Call me crazy... but I predict the block and the split flow will DIE by next Thursday if not before.

snow_wizzard · #3178 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 7:49 pm

TT...You are right to stick to your guns on this change. This is it...the BIG collapse!

Anthony...look at how much the 850mb temps plunge...

24 hrs:

http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/24h/avn_850_24h.html

96 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/4d/avn_850_4d.html

I admit, just how cold it will get before the total collapse is in question. No doubt though, it will get chilly!

AnthonyC · #3179 Postby **AnthonyC** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 8:23 pm

Until it actually happens, I'm a skeptic.

How many times has the GFS advertised something like this?! And has it happened. NO!! NOT ONCE!! This ridge is very persistent. And until it's below 50F outside in the afternoon, I won't believe the pattern is changing. Sorry.

Anthony

Guest · #3180 Postby **Guest** » Thu Mar 10, 2005 9:11 pm

Anthony how can you say that now... The models showed the big cold and almost snowy pattern early this week and everyone threw it out the door pretty much... Then the cold chances completely went away with the GFS and it barely showed anything wet or cold... Now that the GFS has brought both of those possibilities back makes me even more sure that the big change is going to happen. Another big thing is that the change is sooo close now... The ridge is going to be completely flattened within the next 24-36 hours and we could be seeing some pretty nippy temperatures by sunday night and monday. Next week just looks crazy, and beyond that the door is open for anything to happen. I would definately not give up on our chances for anything now.

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