Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

NNME forecast and most very long range guidance is supporting a transition to weak-moderate La Nina for later 2016. Some years to start pondering (as a whole not just winter) 1973, 1983, 1988, and 1998. The PDO looks like it will remain positive so 1983, 1988 (this was a major Nina however) may be a good comparison, though I doubt for the year it will end up as cold as 1983. That was the third coolest year on record.

[hriverajr]

12Z GFS is backing off on the cross-Polar flow driving air southward into the Northern Plains around the 23rd-24th. It keeps the current (and past) pattern going. No big surprise that it's changed.

That is it. I am done. Stick a fork in me and call me Darth Spring. It is over. Sigh. The only thing I have to look forward to this Spring Break is revising my dissertation for the UPTEENTH time...Ughhh

There.. I just stuck the fork in you Winter is over for most of us in Texas (at least snow wise) March will probably be chilly and rain every day 57 wants to ride

When the heck they going to let you defend your dissertation?


Hector

[Tireman4]

12Z GFS is backing off on the cross-Polar flow driving air southward into the Northern Plains around the 23rd-24th. It keeps the current (and past) pattern going. No big surprise that it's changed.

That is it. I am done. Stick a fork in me and call me Darth Spring. It is over. Sigh. The only thing I have to look forward to this Spring Break is revising my dissertation for the UPTEENTH time...Ughhh

There.. I just stuck the fork in you Winter is over for most of us in Texas (at least snow wise) March will probably be chilly and rain every day 57 wants to ride

When the heck they going to let you defend your dissertation?


Hector

When they are ready for me to. Not sure.. I am thinking this Summer...but we have to get it done...so..We have a soft deadline for July

[Texas Snowman]

NNME forecast and most very long range guidance is supporting a transition to weak-moderate La Nina for later 2016. Some years to start pondering (as a whole not just winter) 1973, 1983, 1988, and 1998. The PDO looks like it will remain positive so 1983, 1988 (this was a major Nina however) may be a good comparison, though I doubt for the year it will end up as cold as 1983. That was the third coolest year on record.

December 1983 anyone?

Wxman57 would love to see that, now wouldn't he?

[Texas Snowman]

What state can boast a forest right next to a desert? Grassland next to a beach?

Or a record setting blizzard and killer tornadoes in December? Killer flash flooding and triple-digit drought in the same summer?

[Portastorm]

NNME forecast and most very long range guidance is supporting a transition to weak-moderate La Nina for later 2016. Some years to start pondering (as a whole not just winter) 1973, 1983, 1988, and 1998. The PDO looks like it will remain positive so 1983, 1988 (this was a major Nina however) may be a good comparison, though I doubt for the year it will end up as cold as 1983. That was the third coolest year on record.

Are these analog years when we transitioned from a strong Nino to a weak/moderate Nina?

[horselattitudesfarm]

EWX had a quick mention about the possibility of rain next weekend in their overnight update. I'll hold off on expecting anything until there is more evidence.

Had a weak little shower in Irving this morning. Just enough to dirty my car I just had washed yesterday. Forget winter, just a solid rain event would be appreciated. This is one boring winter.

Keep washing it...Please!

[Ntxw]

Are these analog years when we transitioned from a strong Nino to a weak/moderate Nina?

1983 was the only one of the bunch that went to weak Nina. 1973-1974, 1988-1989, and 1998-1999 were very strong La Nina's. Three of the strongest in fact.

1957-1958 has been thrown around as mentioned by the NWS FW, 1958-1959 reverted back to a weak Nino.

[TheProfessor]

http://imgur.com/a/Mh4VF

these are some pictures of snow that I got, not up to Ohio standards but probably the best storm we've had this winter. Looks like I might get 1-2 inches tomorrow and maybe a bit more on Friday. I'm holding out hope that the storm next week will phase in time to dump around a foot of snow in Ohio.

[Ntxw]

http://imgur.com/a/Mh4VF

these are some pictures of snow that I got, not up to Ohio standards but probably the best storm we've had this winter. Looks like I might get 1-2 inches tomorrow and maybe a bit more on Friday. I'm holding out hope that the storm next week will phase in time to dump around a foot of snow in Ohio.

Cool pics! I hope you get a foot+ soon. March can deliver in Ohio.

62F at DFW 72 tomorrow. 32F and snow showers currently in Atlanta and Columbia, SC. Ah yes, the fresh smell of winter cancel. Arctic air will unload east of the MS this weekend, at this rate Pensacola, FL will have more freezes than DFW by next week for the winter as whole not to mention the 27F low at DFW this winter they will beat also.

If we don't get below 25F which we may not, that will set a new record highest low temperature for the airport for an entire winter

[JDawg512]

We live in a state of extremes, but the extremes are becoming more the norm.

I enjoy talking with my neighbors and we talk about the weather quite a lot. They are a very sweet couple in their early 80s both from Austin born and raised. It's one thing when I talk about how I see a noticable change in the overall climate from when I was a kid back in the 1980s compared to now, but listening to my neighbors stories and experiences about the weather going back to the late 30a really puts it into perspective. They tell me that it's gotten worse in terms of extremes, that the rainfall was more consistent throughout the year as opposed to what we see now. They talk about certain types plants which thrived that they used to grow in the yard in the 60s, 70s and 80s but they can't grow them now because they no longer do well here.

No doubt that geography and lattitude play a major role in a regions climate but they aren't the only factors.

Now back to wishing for rain...

[Ntxw]

Speaking of extremes 20 years ago this month (1996) one of the more spectacular temperature shows we've seen in these parts. 8F on Feb 4th and then a couple weeks later was 95F on Feb 21st. Also the last time DFW was in the single digits

[Texas Snowman]

Found this on the Lubbock NWS site. Not sure the last time it was updated:

"WINTER WEATHER CLIMATOLOGY

THE FOLLOWING REPRESENTS A HISTORICAL SNAPSHOT OF SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS, AS WELL AS A
BRIEF REVIEW OF IMPORTANT WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK.

FEBRUARY 1899 WAS A VERY COLD MONTH. DURING THE PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 11TH THROUGH THE 13TH, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RACED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WHERE A THIN LAYER OF ICE COATED MOST OF GALVESTON BAY ON FEBRUARY 12TH.

SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER ON RECORD FOR THE STATE OF TEXAS
OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 12TH. IN FACT, THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN THE
STATE OCCURRED RIGHT HERE IN WEST TEXAS. ON THE MORNING OF
FEBRUARY 12TH, THE THERMOMETER PLUMMETED TO 23 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT TULIA IN SWISHER COUNTY. THERE WERE UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE ESTABLISHED AT TULIA WAS TIED
YEARS LATER WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGED INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE SMALL TOWN OF SEMINOLE IN GAINES COUNTY
REPORTED A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ON FEBRUARY 8TH 1933.

THE YEARS 1899 AND 1933 WERE NOT THE ONLY YEARS FOR RECORD COLD
ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF CITIES WITH
CORRESPONDING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND DATES OF OCCURRENCE.

ABILENE..................9 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1947
AMARILLO................16 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1899
AUSTIN...................2 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1949
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR....11 DEGREES........SET IN 1930
BROWNSVILLE.............12 DEGREES........SET IN 1899
CORPUS CHRISTI..........11 DEGREES........SET IN 1899
DALLAS/FORT WORTH........8 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1899
DEL RIO.................10 DEGREES........SET IN 1989
EL PASO..................8 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1962
GALVESTON................8 DEGREES........SET IN 1899
HOUSTON..................5 DEGREES........SET IN 1930 AND 1940
LUBBOCK.................17 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1933
MIDLAND/ODESSA..........11 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1985
SAN ANGELO...............4 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1989
SAN ANTONIO..............0 DEGREES........SET IN 1949
WACO.....................5 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1949 AND 1899
WICHITA FALLS...........12 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1947

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS DEFINED AS THE COOLING EFFECT ON THE BODY RESULTING FROM A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND WIND. WIND CHILL IS BASED ON THE RATE OF HEAT LOSS FROM EXPOSED SKIN. THE THRESHOLD FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE IS -18 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, AT WHICH POINT FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR ON EXPOSED SKIN WITHIN 30 MINUTES. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR SUCH INSTANCES.

IN ADDITION TO RECORD COLD AND BITING WIND CHILLS, THE STATE OF
TEXAS EXPERIENCES VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS. ON CHRISTMAS EVE 2004, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CROSSED THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND PRODUCED HEAVY SNOW AND ICE FROM BROWNSVILLE THROUGH CORPUS CHRISTI AND VICTORIA. RESIDENTS IN VICTORIA AWAKENED CHRISTMAS MORNING TO OVER A FOOT OF FRESH SNOW COVER.

HEAVY SNOWS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NOT AS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS, THEY DO OCCUR. IN JANUARY OF 1983, A WINTER STORM DROPPED A RECORD 16.3 INCHES AT THE LUBBOCK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL, A TOTAL OF 41.2 INCHES FELL DURING THE 1982/1983 SEASON. THIS IS THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR LUBBOCK. HEAVY SNOW OFTEN LEADS TO HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS AND RELATED IMPACTS ARE NOT EXCLUSIVE TO TRAVELERS. FOR INSTANCE, SHOVELING HEAVY SNOW CAN RESULT IN SERIOUS OR EVEN FATAL INJURY FOR THOSE NOT NORMALLY ACTIVE.

WHEN EXTREME WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OR IMMINENT,
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WILL EITHER ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER WATCH, WARNING OR ADVISORY. A WATCH MEANS THAT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A WARNING MEANS
THAT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. IF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX IS FORECAST, AND NOT EXPECTED TO
DELIVER A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY, AN ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK WISHES EVERYONE A SAFE AND HEALTHY WINTER SEASON. COME JOIN US AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LUBBOCK.

[wxman57]

December 1983 anyone?
Wxman57 would love to see that, now wouldn't he?

I remember it well. My 3rd year as a meteorologist. Was working the night shift. Temperature was in the low teens and dropping (late evening). Meanwhile, the AC was blowing cold air down my back. WTF, I thought? I went to the thermostat and turned the AC off and put the heater on. It wasn't long after that when the whole building filled with smoke. Several fire trucks arrived, firemen with axes at the ready. Turns out the heater had never been turned on in our old 1-story building before. It had burned off a lot of dust/dirt in the furnace. There was no fire.

We remained below freezing for 5 days back then. Highs in the low 20s on a day or two. Had 1" of lake-effect snow on the south shore of Clear Lake on Christmas Eve. Water pipes (in attics) burst all over the area, while homeowners were out of town for Christmas. They came home days later to flooded homes.

Ah, the good old days...

[Texas Snowman]

December 1983 anyone?
Wxman57 would love to see that, now wouldn't he?

I remember it well. My 3rd year as a meteorologist. Was working the night shift. Temperature was in the low teens and dropping (late evening). Meanwhile, the AC was blowing cold air down my back. WTF, I thought? I went to the thermostat and turned the AC off and put the heater on. It wasn't long after that when the whole building filled with smoke. Several fire trucks arrived, firemen with axes at the ready. Turns out the heater had never been turned on in our old 1-story building before. It had burned off a lot of dust/dirt in the furnace. There was no fire.

We remained below freezing for 5 days back then. Highs in the low 20s on a day or two. Had 1" of lake-effect snow on the south shore of Clear Lake on Christmas Eve. Water pipes (in attics) burst all over the area, while homeowners were out of town for Christmas. They came home days later to flooded homes.

Ah, the good old days...

Well now, that might help to explain your aversion to cold weather.

[Texas Snowman]

And just think, had the fortunes of your early days as a Pro Met gone the other way, then who knows what might have happened?

If all of that had been in the summertime...and there had been some sort of malfunction with the building's air conditioner...and the building's sprinkler system had somehow malfunctioned...and the firemen had arrived because of that problem...and you were out on the street curb wiping the sweat of a 100-degree day off of your brow...

...Then maybe, just maybe, you'd be the Cold Miser to this very day!

Ahhh, the rotten luck!

[opticsguy]

The 1996 freeze in N. TX. I was camping at Cooper Lake that weekend...duck hunting. The beer in my tent with me was frozen when I got up. We had to break a sheet of ice with the boat getting to our hunting area. Yes, it was calm and Cooper Lake actually froze for a few hours. Never saw a duck.

That being said, I'm planting some tomatoes tomorrow, a 4 week jump on a typical growing season. Maybe I can get some ripe tomatoes before the bugs show up.

[Brent]

NNME forecast and most very long range guidance is supporting a transition to weak-moderate La Nina for later 2016. Some years to start pondering (as a whole not just winter) 1973, 1983, 1988, and 1998. The PDO looks like it will remain positive so 1983, 1988 (this was a major Nina however) may be a good comparison, though I doubt for the year it will end up as cold as 1983. That was the third coolest year on record.

Hmmm... for summers... 1973 and 1983 DFW only hit 100(1973 only once! 1983 only 3 times!)... 1988 hit 107 and was more normal summer(no 100's in September though, so an earlier end)... but 1998 hit 110 and is 3rd hottest.... so I know which ones I'm rooting for...

Sign me up for 1983 in a heartbeat because of what happened after summer alone...

[wxman57]

I also remember 1983 as a year with 4 major weather events in Houston. I was working another night shift in May (21st, I think). The radar (no PCs back then, but we had a machine that printed radar images) showed a big squall line passing San Antonio & Austin. I calculated it's movement at about 60 mph - toward Houston. I put out alerts for our clients about 2 hours ahead of its impact. Strong straight-line winds caused damage and power outages all across Houston.

There was Hurricane Alicia in August. The eye passed right over me in SW Houston (was off that day). Then in September we had a significant flood across the city - 9" of rain over downtown flooded many homes along Brays & Buffalo Bayous. And, of course, the big freeze right at Christmas.

[TheProfessor]

Another picture of the snow, this is the oval on campus.

http://imgur.com/aPkxFRM