Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Steve McCauley
New data sets are in, and now we are back to possible WINTER MODE again. These models have a lot in common with politicians: flip flop, flip flop. But I might point out that for the first time, the Japanese model is getting serious with precipitation accompanying the cold air with the snow line getting as close as Wichita Falls by the end of the month.

Now let me be clear. There is still NO DATA SET that indicates we get the core of the cold air. There is no data set that even remotely suggests we will have record lows. This is NOT a true McFarland. That part of the outlook has remained consistent. So at least the math isn't flip-flopping on that issue

But as I pointed out yesterday, we should start to see chaos levels drop a little bit more within the next couple of days so that we will finally be able to give specifics concerning this possible winter weather event.


Steve McCauley's latest facebook post.

[Portastorm]

On one hand, I know that McCauley is a savvy forecaster and a lot of you North Texas folks think highly of him. On the other hand, relying on the JMA?!

[gboudx]

Any savvyness Steve has is from his willingness to go out on a limb on TV. He's good at discussing model forecasts that go out more than a week, which you don't see much of from a TV met. And he explains himself well. From what I hear he's very good when he visits schools for WFAAs weather minds program. He enjoys teaching it.

And he's not a winter weather enthusiast so this would not be any -removed- on his part.

[wxman57]

You winter-mongering folks are really grasping at straws now. The heat will win out!

[Ptarmigan]

You winter-mongering folks are really grasping at straws now. The heat will win out!

Not if it rains a lot. Than the heat does not win out.

[Texas Snowman]

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[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm, I told you to wait until March 15th!!!

[Ntxw]

My oh my it is warm out there. Through all of our cold mongering resistance Wxman is getting his 80s. Models continue to hang cold up into Canada. What looked impressive before last weekend is turning out to be nothing more than a front that swings us back down to normal later in the week. Wxman was right, once again. Good thing PWC canceled winter just in time! Our next significant rain chance probably won't be until the beginning of next week as the bigger storm swings across the central and northern plains.

[Texas Snowman]

From Norman NWS this morning:

"BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE IN HANDLING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BRING US ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP AND POSSIBLY
EVEN FROZEN PRECIP. DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO GO LOW ON ANY RAIN/SNOW CHANCES UNTIL
THINGS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS."

[Ntxw]

Somebody between Waco-San Antonio-Laredo-San Angelo square could hit 90 tomorrow! Unbelievable!!! Wxman57 is abusing his powers

[wxman57]

Fortunately, I don't live in northern Oklahoma. Should be over 80F here tomorrow. Isn't this February weather wonderful!

[Portastorm]

Fortunately, I don't live in northern Oklahoma. Should be over 80F here tomorrow. Isn't this February weather wonderful!

Enjoy it while it lasts, buddy. We cold-mongerers are coming for you with a vengeance starting next November!

[Tireman4]

Fortunately, I don't live in northern Oklahoma. Should be over 80F here tomorrow. Isn't this February weather wonderful!

Sigh. Today will be a rough run. I can feel it in my bones. Sigh.

[hriverajr]

What low depths we have sunk to. Plotting our revenge for next winter Our day will come though Who knows maybe it will be a cool rainy summer? Can't be as bad as last. Oh by the way southwest texas has not really shared in the bounty of rain like everyone else. Even south Texas has not really gotten that much.

[Tireman4]

.

Who knows maybe it will be a cool rainy summer? Can't be as bad as last.

You know.. I thought that too, with the summer of 2010 a little toasty, but mostly it was the low temperatures that were so high. Last year, it started in April and did not quit until October. I was thinking..."just how long will this high stay on top of us?" Well, about that long.

For those of us that want a cool summer....


IAH
77.6 1919 June
80.0 1891 July
78.8 1894 August
74.6 1974 September

Keep hoping folks...

[Texas Snowman]

Fortunately, I don't live in northern Oklahoma. Should be over 80F here tomorrow. Isn't this February weather wonderful!

Quite the sarcastic wise-guy as of late...

[Texas Snowman]

Latest from Steve McCauley on Facebook:


"OK..all data sets are in, and I think we are getting close to a clearer picture for the end of the month. Frist of all, I think we will have to throw out the main American model (GFS) this time around. It appears to be completely ignoring the cold air coming down from Canada. This model is suggesting lows in the 50s and high temperatures in the 70s on Wednesday. I think this is in error.

Thus, with that said, it still appears that the core of the cold air will indeed stay in Kansas, but enough cooling is expected here in north Texas to drop us to near freezing by Wednesday morning. Ice and/or snow do NOT appear likely in our area. We will probably see a few showers and storms late Tuesday as the cold front moves in, but the precip should STOP before it gets cold enough for any wintry precip.

A rapid warmup is then expected for the remainder of next week!"

[Portastorm]

Like Mr. McCauley, it appears the NWS forecaster on duty in New Braunfels this afternoon has revised his outlook for next week:

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY SEND THE REGION ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY MIDWEEK...BUT ITS SOURCE REGION...ACCORDING TO CURRENT PROGS...IS NOT OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN AS WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY AND THEREBY SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE CONTINUED SEMI-PERMANENT SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.

[Texas Snowman]

Latest thoughts from Norman NWS...I realize they aren't talking about the Red River Valley.

I'm hoping that will change as model adjustments continue.

----

GFS AND ECM COMING TO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EARLY NEXT
WEEK UPPER PATTERN...BUT SURFACE FEATURE AGREEMENT MUCH LESS THAN
DESIRED. SIDED MORE WITH THE ECM AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECM ALSO DEVELOPS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
TUESDAY GIVEN LATEST ECM SOLUTIONS.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Good ole heat miser spreading his 70's up here:grr: