Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

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PWC ECHOES THE ‘WINTER=CANCEL’ REFRAIN
Joining the growing chorus of voices who are saying “winter cancel,” the Portastorm Weather Center, located in scenic southwest Travis County, closed up shop this morning and declared the winter season to be over.

“We’ve done everything we know how to bring about some winter weather for much of Texas,” the PWC Director said. “As wxman57’s favorite singing artist Kenny Rogers once sang ‘you’ve got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them.’ It’s time to concede defeat and start working towards next winter.”

In a winter season which many believe to be the lamest in years, warm weather proponents led by Heat Miser (aka wxman57) enjoyed several months of no winter precipitation events outside of several Midland/Odessa mini-blizzards. The Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, Waco, Austin, San Antonio, Houston, and even the Rio Grande Valley saw nothing to “write home about.” La Nina and an Arctic Oscillation which never reached negative numbers such as what was observed last winter season are the main culprits.

The PWC announcement was greeted mostly by indifference as many winter weather fans in Texas have already conceded defeat. Nevertheless, a few die-hards walked away from the press event in a bitter mood.

“What a joke,” complained Tireman4. “PWC didn’t do anything this winter. All they did was get likkered up on that Grey Goose vodka. They never delivered. What a bunch of charlatans!”

“I’m changing my avatar because this ‘You want snow, you got snow’ business is a load of crap,” Ntxw said, shaking his head. “I even wanted to be the PWC’s North Texas satellite office but I don’t think so anymore. They’re like Tony Romo and the Cowboys . . . they can’t deliver when it counts!”

[gboudx]

As Dandy Don Meredith used to sing, "Turn out the lights, the party's over." See y'all around the other Forums.

[Tireman4]

Well I never.....I am not giving up. Dang it, we must summon someone (certainly not the alkies at the PWC) for winter. I want something. Sheesh.....LOL

[Ntxw]

I think PWC's greatest downfall this winter was it's inability to unite the different races of the model world *cough computer models.* Unlike winter's past, the European, Canadians, and even the far east Japanese models have all delivered bitter cold to their respective regions. PWC was unable to persuade them together to meet with their fellow Americans in this land we call the melting pot. Discrimination was rampant this season at the weather office in scenic southwest Austin!

Jokes aside, it looks as if mother nature still has hope for us, but that window is closing. Perhaps one or two more cool snaps before the vernal equinox. But at this time it does not appear to be major south of I-70

[Turtle]

Had ice on my car this morning after last nights rain. I'm not giving up on winter just yet!!

[Tireman4]

Headlines....

The Winter That Wasnt.....The Year Without A Winter.....hummm

There was a year without a summer...( Wxman57 is cringing...LOL)


The Year Without a Summer (also known as the Poverty Year, Year There Was No Summer, and Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death) was 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by about 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F),


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Partly caused the Panic of 1819....

[Ptarmigan]

Headlines....

The Winter That Wasnt.....The Year Without A Winter.....hummm

There was a year without a summer...( Wxman57 is cringing...LOL)


The Year Without a Summer (also known as the Poverty Year, Year There Was No Summer, and Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death) was 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by about 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F),


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Partly caused the Panic of 1819....

Tambora erupted in 1815, the largest in recent history. I know and remember some summers not being too hot, but cooler than normal.

[Ptarmigan]

Well I never.....I am not giving up. Dang it, we must summon someone (certainly not the alkies at the PWC) for winter. I want something. Sheesh.....LOL

It can get cold in March and April.

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, how unfortunate it is that the models don't show any really cold air down here in Texas over the next few weeks (and likely for the rest of winter). We'll all just have to enjoy the mild to warm weather as we head toward the warm to hot weather of spring and summer.

Maybe not as long it is a rainy spring and summer.

[cycloneye]

El Nino may save the state from a very prolonged drought. Click here

[Ptarmigan]

El Nino may save the state from a very prolonged drought. Click here

Off the coast of South America is already warm into El Nino territory. Looks possible to see another year from La Nina to El Nino. The last that happened was in 2009.
Years That Went La Nina to El Nino
1952
1957
1972
1976
2006
2009

It rarely happens.

[somethingfunny]

My native trees haven't started budding yet, I think we still have at least one good cold snap to come. That isn't to say it will coincide with precipitation of course.

I'm more glad than ever that I decided to sacrifice a night of sleep and go chase the snow when there was a chance on December 4th. It wasn't a total fail of a winter.

Link to photo album of my snow chase

Here are some pictures I took with my phone when I went hunting for snowflakes Sunday night. Driving I-30 through Dallas and Fort Worth in heavy rain with trucks who couldn't find their lanes was brutal, but once I escaped that and headed NW on State Highway 199, the trip became worth it. By the time I crossed Eagle Mountain Lake it had mixed over to mainly sleet, and at Springtown it began snowing. Pictures from Springtown:





The snow almost immediately stuck to the roads and I decided it would be better to head north to Decatur than NW out to Jacksboro. If you drive carefully and don't mash your pedals or your wheel, driving on snow isn't that difficult. It was really coming down though.

Pictures from Decatur/Bridgeport:

[Portastorm]

This has got to be a joke ... I promise, I did not write this! Of course I didn't. I say winter is over.

Nevertheless, here is a snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

INTERESTING WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY
TUNED. MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR-MASS SO
TEMPERATURES WILL PARED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM GUIDANCE FOR A FIRST
SHOT AT THIS.

[orangeblood]

This has got to be a joke ... I promise, I did not write this! Of course I didn't. I say winter is over.

Nevertheless, here is a snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

INTERESTING WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY
TUNED. MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR-MASS SO
TEMPERATURES WILL PARED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM GUIDANCE FOR A FIRST
SHOT AT THIS.

It's a text book setup for overrunning/winter weather type scenario for next week...the models have trouble EVERY SEASON handling these shallow dense air masses. Sorry Portastorm but I think the Press conference was a bit premature, imo!!

[Ntxw]

Even though I called for winter cancel (negativity always works!) and refuse to buy into silly models that keep showing cold 2 weeks out I will say this...split flow regime is over. Whatever storms will likely come from the far north in a large trough. So either it gets very cold with it or it doesn't (depends on cyclogenesis out west.) I doubt we will deal with marginal air masses at this point. A few posts ago mentioned that I-70 was the cutting point as of what the models are showing, north of that they will be dealing with blizzards. Nudge that any bit south and my avatar has to change again!

Still though winter cancel remains

[Portastorm]

orangeblood ... I hope I'm wrong. I truly do. I just haven't seen anything in the medium-range in the last 48 hours that has given me hope. In fact, the trend has been warmer and warmer for the southern Plains. What are the odds that ALL of the medium-range models are wrong? Every time they latch onto something which looks of interest, it may last a cycle or two and then it's gone ... or backed off a day or two.

Who knows ... maybe I've pulled an "Ed Mahmoud" and will never live it down. For those of you who are relatively new, Ed was a member here and active. In the Tropical Forum in 2008 he declared the tropical season was over ... about a week or two before a storm named Ike plowed into southeast Texas. Poor Ed never lived it down. Incidentally, he no longer is a member on this forum.

[weatherdude1108]

This has got to be a joke ... I promise, I did not write this! Of course I didn't. I say winter is over.

Nevertheless, here is a snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

INTERESTING WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY
TUNED. MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR-MASS SO
TEMPERATURES WILL PARED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM GUIDANCE FOR A FIRST
SHOT AT THIS.

I just saw this! Gotta be a misprint.

[HockeyTx82]

Meh, as long as my half marathon this Sunday morning is warm, no wind and perfect tranquility I am good to go. Wait I sound like a cyclist, not a runner. I mean bring on your worst Mother Nature!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ndale]

This has got to be a joke ... I promise, I did not write this! Of course I didn't. I say winter is over.

Nevertheless, here is a snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

INTERESTING WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY
TUNED. MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR-MASS SO
TEMPERATURES WILL PARED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM GUIDANCE FOR A FIRST
SHOT AT THIS.

I'm not sure what is causing this kind of thinking around here (Austin), but one tv met last night was saying there could be cold air building in western Canada and I think he was saying it could have an effect on us.



Edit: I know the 12z GFS is showing snow cover on twisterdata for next week but have'nt we learned how the models can be so wrong?

2nd Edit: Corrected the GFS run from 18z to 12z.

[HockeyTx82]

This has got to be a joke ... I promise, I did not write this! Of course I didn't. I say winter is over.

Nevertheless, here is a snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

INTERESTING WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO MAY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
AIR-MASS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY
TUNED. MODELS CANNOT RESOLVE THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR-MASS SO
TEMPERATURES WILL PARED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM GUIDANCE FOR A FIRST
SHOT AT THIS.

I just saw this! Gotta be a misprint.

Don't we have a pro met that posts around here that works in that office or around that area? That or what if, I doubt they would do this, they check out our forum and read Portastorm's declaration of "Winter Over" and put that out there just the mess with him? That would be awesome if that was the case!!!!! HAHAHAHAHA