Texas Winter 2015-2016

[weatherdude1108]

Well there was a little back building and for a minute or so had a few rain drops fall. I went out onto the lanai to watch the clouds pass by and between the breaks I could see the stars very clearly. Due to the cold air and the reflection of the city lights on the clouds, it made for a beautiful and almost otherworldly scene. There was an occasional flash of lightning in the distance as well.

That was the most weather excitement i've had in awhile and it wasn't much lol.

We had heavy drops of rain that sounded like hail almost. Heard thunder. Rogue back building cell around 1:30am. Gave us a whopping 0.05 measurement. Most in well over a month here, probably since after Christmas.

[Brent]

The GFS is beyond depressing... no freezes, lots of above average highs, and only 0.06" of rain at DFW through 300 hours(it does have a rain event at 384 but... )

The Euro is still ugly but a little better... no freezes, Thursday almost touches 80 at DFW. Has a decent rain event just after Valentines Day with a little more than an inch

Is "winter" over yet??? Might as well go for warmest(driest won't happen solely because of the Christmas weekend rain and tornadoes). the predictions were complete and total garbage of this "so called" winter...

[gpsnowman]

Some patchy frost around the airport this morning. This winter just continues to deliver.

[Portastorm]

We actually had our coldest early morning of this so-called winter with temps dropping to 28 degrees, here in scenic southwest Travis County.

Sadly I don't see anything in the models (both ops and ensembles) to give me cause for hope. This has been the Ryan Leaf Texas Winter.

[wxman57]

I saw a bunch of tiny snowflakes atop our neighbor's roof this morning. That will have to suffice as Houston's snowstorm this winter. I see a bit of phasing between the northern & southern streams across eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. later this week, but nothing to bring any winter weather to Texas over the next couple of weeks. Lots of 70-deg temps, though. I think it's safe to say no snow in Houston (or Austin) this winter. Probably no hard freezes, either.

[ATCcane]

Maybe this is better suited for the Spring thread, but considering how the winter has gone, what should we expect for the spring storm season ?

[gboudx]

Interesting info from DFW NWS:

A Dry El Niño?

Areas east of I-35 were very wet during December and remain above normal for the winter season (December-February). But for areas along and west of I-35, winter totals are below normal.

The El Niño is now past its peak, and sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are cooling. However, the current sea surface temperature anomalies are still among the warmest on record, thus, strong El Niño conditions are still in place. But so far in 2016, there have been very few rainmaking systems from the Pacific that have impacted Texas, and precipitation totals for the year to date are below normal throughout North and Central Texas.

How unusual is this, particularly with strong El Niño conditions in place? Although El Niño winters tend to favor above normal precipitation, this is not always the case. The driest among the strong El Niño events (1957-1958) has been a remarkably good analog for 2015-2016:

-Very wet spring ends a multi-year drought (1957 and 2015)
-July and August are very dry (1957 and 2015)
-Wet autumn (1957 and 2015)
-Winter with near to below normal precipitation (1957-1958 and 2015-2016)

So what happened in the spring of 1958? For North Texas, the precipitation from March to May was well above normal though totals were less impressive in Central Texas. (Our current outlook for the spring of 2016 favors above normal precipitation.) There were fewer tornadoes than average in 1958, which is often the case in our region when El Niño conditions are in place.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

We actually had our coldest early morning of this so-called winter with temps dropping to 28 degrees, here in scenic southwest Travis County.

Sadly I don't see anything in the models (both ops and ensembles) to give me cause for hope. This has been the Ryan Leaf Texas Winter.

Same things people are saying around here as well. "What winter?"

Pretty epic bust for considering all the hype and build up. Haven't even had a hard freeze here this year, not even made it below 30. Only people that are happy are the guys that sell firewood, they made out like bandits.

[Ntxw]

1957-1958 was a pretty snowless winter in DFW. March 1958 was brutal though, 3rd coldest March.

Regardless DJF is toast. If there were signs of a late month pattern change it would be showing up by now. As far as I can see its more of the same. El Nino > Winter. I'm not too worried about rains, though I'd like to see some. Once the atmosphere warms up over the continent it will rain again just a matter of when. Disappointing to see a winter wasted worst than 2011-2012, but I guess when the Nino refused to weaken back in the fall should have been a flag. Supers are not good for winter.


At this point I'm hoping for a weak Nina like in 1983 and maybe we can start thinking about freezes in September

[hriverajr]

Remember Portastorm when you jumped on me when I sided with 57? hahah.. I almost jumped ship, but am embarrassed to be on his side I actually think it might get chilly and rainy when we get near and into march, but by then will be too late for us. As for the rain all you have to look at is look how far suppressed most of the moisture is at this point. That I believe will start shifting north over time.

[Ntxw]

Remember Portastorm when you jumped on me when I sided with 57? hahah.. I almost jumped ship, but am embarrassed to be on his side I actually think it might get chilly and rainy when we get near and into march, but by then will be too late for us. As for the rain all you have to look at is look how far suppressed most of the moisture is at this point. That I believe will start shifting north over time.

I'm pretty sure March will be cold just to toy with us when climo is against. Plus even the bad Nino's had cold Marches.

[Portastorm]

@Cyclone Mike: Yes, it has been an epic bust. While I think some folks unfairly thought this would be a 2011-12 redux, we all pretty much felt like at least we would have above normal precip. That happened in the fall ... but things quickly dried up.

@hriverajr: Haa! As much as he can annoy us ... wxman57 is one very smart dude. One generally goes against his guidance at their own risk, a significant one at that.

@Ntxw: Wouldn't that be something? (about a cold March) ... just to gig us. At this point I have given up on any frozen precip in Austin. I just want some rain now. And I'm with you about weak Ninas. We have had some of the better winter weather events in Austin during weak Ninas.

[hriverajr]

Remember Portastorm when you jumped on me when I sided with 57? hahah.. I almost jumped ship, but am embarrassed to be on his side I actually think it might get chilly and rainy when we get near and into march, but by then will be too late for us. As for the rain all you have to look at is look how far suppressed most of the moisture is at this point. That I believe will start shifting north over time.

I'm pretty sure March will be cold just to toy with us when climo is against. Plus even the bad Nino's had cold Marches.

Of course....hehe

[Ntxw]

@Ntxw: Wouldn't that be something? (about a cold March) ... just to gig us. At this point I have given up on any frozen precip in Austin. I just want some rain now. And I'm with you about weak Ninas. We have had some of the better winter weather events in Austin during weak Ninas.

Yes! There is more leeway with weak ENSO events. Weak Nina's weak NIno's, sometimes we even get away with the moderate events. I don't want to see a strong La Nina though, once you get into the upper echelon of ENSO you play with fire.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is what it looks like up at 9k feet in NM. Most of the clouds in the background is snow blowing off of Jicarita Peak which you can barely see part of beyond the trees.

Glad to have taken the 4 wheel drive truck.

[Portastorm]

Well ... I think Ralph's Weather wins.

[Ntxw]

JB still thinks it will snow in Texas to Atlanta from his video. Hopefully he is right. As I said yesterday there is a system past mid month for last ditch efforts. I'm cautiously hanging on it, something is better than nothing at this point. Just one good snowstorm for all of us would about make it the worst winter ever ever to a good one.

[TheProfessor]

The Euro has me going below 0 on Firday, that's too cold.

[Ntxw]

The Euro has me going below 0 on Firday, that's too cold.

Come back to Texas, Euro is pleasant 60s and 70s all the way through

[TheProfessor]

The Euro has me going below 0 on Firday, that's too cold.

Come back to Texas, Euro is pleasant 60s and 70s all the way through

60s and 70s are too warm for this time of year(It was quite toasty in San Antonio last week), I'd take the 48 degrees we have today if it isn't going to snow. It's not the 0 degrees I'm super worried about, I'm not sure what the windchill will be, the -15 windchill we had earlier this year was brutal, but that was with a 6 degrees surface temp.