Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

This chart about sums it up. You can see the clusters of good, so so , vs bad Nino winters. You get into the "Supers" very strong and you're in trouble

[gpsnowman]

White flag raised. Capitulation to El Nino and Wxman57. This might go down as one of the worst winters ever. I give up. Even La Ninas have better winters than this one. With La Ninas, the chance of arctic intrusions are more than likely possible. This season is just plain absurd. Thank God Santa Fe is in my future in about a month. Never been there but I hear it is nice. Come on early March New Mexico blizzard!!!!

[TheProfessor]

I don't mind a weak La Nina next year as long as it's not like the 2011-12 winter, I've heard that was bad for just about everyone in the U.S

[gpsnowman]

I don't mind a weak La Nina next year as long as it's not like the 2011-12 winter, I've heard that was bad for just about everyone in the U.S

Yes that winter was awful. As awful as this one? We will see. It is one thing to not see any ice or snow in your area, but to not witness any true cold fronts originating from our normal cold regions in an entire winter season is ridiculous. Even if the air is cold and dry, one front usually penetrates this far south. I am almost angry at this situation, for a long vacation from our nasty summers here are needed. Crap I am angry now, for Miller Lite has taken control of my weather emotions!!!!! Dang it.

[Ntxw]

I don't mind a weak La Nina next year as long as it's not like the 2011-12 winter, I've heard that was bad for just about everyone in the U.S

Yes that winter was awful. As awful as this one? We will see. It is one thing to not see any ice or snow in your area, but to not witness any true cold fronts originating from our normal cold regions in an entire winter season is ridiculous. Even if the air is cold and dry, one front usually penetrates this far south. I am almost angry at this situation, for a long vacation from our nasty summers here are needed. Crap I am angry now, for Miller Lite has taken control of my weather emotions!!!!! Dang it.

The second year NIna's such as 1999 and 2011/12 tend to be bad. First year Nina's are actually quite decent for cold.

[aggiecutter]

This chart about sums it up. You can see the clusters of good, so so , vs bad Nino winters. You get into the "Supers" very strong and you're in trouble

http://i67.tinypic.com/9ruk3b.png

You and I are smart, but I won't tell anyone:

318 Postby aggiecutter » Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:50 pm

I would expect there will be a lot of severe weather(Tornadoes-Severe Thunderstorms) during mid-late fall and the early winter months.

#385 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 23, 2015 2:45 pm

I am concerned this El Nino could foil our winter, not just Texas but the country as a whole. Again I want to wait until I see more evidence from the EPO but so far the signs are not great. The GOA has cooled much recently, still warm but the process thst cools it has continued. Also reports off the coast of Peru show water anomalies 5-6C above normal, that is in Nino 1+2 area.
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[orangeblood]

Considering Feb. and March are our 2 best months for snowfall, it seems way too early to be throwing in the white towel. If we get to Feb. 20th with nothing promising on the horizon, I'll join but it's still too early IMO.

Euro Weeklies look good for end of this month.... Cross-Polar flow with negative EPO

[Brent]

I don't mind a weak La Nina next year as long as it's not like the 2011-12 winter, I've heard that was bad for just about everyone in the U.S

Yes that winter was awful. As awful as this one? We will see. It is one thing to not see any ice or snow in your area, but to not witness any true cold fronts originating from our normal cold regions in an entire winter season is ridiculous. Even if the air is cold and dry, one front usually penetrates this far south. I am almost angry at this situation, for a long vacation from our nasty summers here are needed. Crap I am angry now, for Miller Lite has taken control of my weather emotions!!!!! Dang it.

It hit me just how awful this winter has been when I woke up the other day to something similar to allergies....

[Ntxw]

It hit me just how awful this winter has been when I woke up the other day to something similar to allergies....

It's Cedar fever season, mountain ceder, the hell from the hill country. Lets hope you didn't develop that because that stuff is truly a nightmare.

[Brent]

It hit me just how awful this winter has been when I woke up the other day to something similar to allergies....

It's Cedar fever season, mountain ceder, the hell from the hill country. Lets hope you didn't develop that because that stuff is truly a nightmare.

I used to have bad allergies in Alabama for years... and then funnily enough, the very first time I came to Texas on vacation in late September 2013 I had been sick with them before we got to Texas and about the time we entered Texas on I-10 they vanished pretty much... Since I moved here, they haven't been on the same level as that, but I just had them back in November...

[TheProfessor]

It hit me just how awful this winter has been when I woke up the other day to something similar to allergies....

It's Cedar fever season, mountain ceder, the hell from the hill country. Lets hope you didn't develop that because that stuff is truly a nightmare.

I used to have bad allergies in Alabama for years... and then funnily enough, the very first time I came to Texas on vacation in late September 2013 I had been sick with them before we got to Texas and about the time we entered Texas on I-10 they vanished pretty much... Since I moved here, they haven't been on the same level as that, but I just had them back in November...

Exact opposite for me, My allergies in Texas are bad, every time I go home they act up, One time I had a sinus infection and I went on vacation to Florida and I was all better. My allergies seem to be good here in Ohio as well, I was quite shocked because my allergies are actually worse in Kansas than in Texas so I didn't know what to expect.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

35 here at TPB this morning! The frost is everywhere! About the only winter weather we will see! Woooo hoooooo. /Sarcasm

Headed to Leakey this weekend, hopefully i dont get cedar fever.

[Ntxw]

Maybe someone in N or NE Texas could see a stray snowflake or some sleet tomorrow with passing ULL. NAM is the outlier with a little qpf. Too warm at the surface with 40s though. Other guidance are dry.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Based on the 500 chart, the Euro has an interesting pattern 10 days out. Any details on it?

[TheProfessor]

So apparently today is weather persons day, so Happy Weather Persons Day!

[dhweather]

12Z GFS for Mesquite

7 day min temp 33, max 71, .01" of rain

8-16 day min temp 35, max 77, 1.23" of rain

[weatherdude1108]

It's Cedar fever season, mountain ceder, the hell from the hill country. Lets hope you didn't develop that because that stuff is truly a nightmare.

I used to have bad allergies in Alabama for years... and then funnily enough, the very first time I came to Texas on vacation in late September 2013 I had been sick with them before we got to Texas and about the time we entered Texas on I-10 they vanished pretty much... Since I moved here, they haven't been on the same level as that, but I just had them back in November...

Exact opposite for me, My allergies in Texas are bad, every time I go home they act up, One time I had a sinus infection and I went on vacation to Florida and I was all better. My allergies seem to be good here in Ohio as well, I was quite shocked because my allergies are actually worse in Kansas than in Texas so I didn't know what to expect.

My allergies act up when I go to Houston. Every time I leave Houston and come back to Austin, they disappear, and reappear when I go back to Houston to visit relatives. Must be the pine trees out there.

[dhweather]

FWD AFD

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUR OFFICE TALLIED ONLY 0.18 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH IS VERY DRY EVEN BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS.
ANYONE WHO HAS BEEN SHOCKED BY STATIC ELECTRICITY RECENTLY KNOWS
THAT IT HAS BEEN BONE DRY FOR A WHILE...BUT THIS IS THE DRIEST
COLUMN OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED THIS
MORNING...AND SPEEDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TODAY. BUT WITH THE
GULF SCOURED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEW
POINT RECOVERY TODAY. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION WILL ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY
THE ADDED WIND CHILL.

[dhweather]

My allergies act up when I go to Houston. Every time I leave Houston and come back to Austin, they disappear, and reappear when I go back to Houston to visit relatives. Must be the pine trees out there.

I'd bet you are allergic to mold/mildew more than anything else. My allergies get a lot worse when I'm in coastal regions.

[dhweather]

KERA interviews Mark Fox with FWD on CASA Radar:

http://keranews.org/post/casa-radar-aim ... ere-storms