Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I would sure expect some lows below the upper 30s, with the pattern shown in the 6 - 10 day time frame. We had some mid 30s this week, with a very warm airmass. With decent clearing there should be some 20s coming up. It would be impossible to not have frost with that ECMWF solution. I concede you have been better than me at predicting highs the past month or so, but you are way too high on the lows, on a very consistent basis. That is a common mistake when dealing with such profoundly continental air.

By the way, we have had March's with 20 or more lows of 32 or below, so it's by no means too late for that kind of thing. Palmer had 28 such lows in March 1935, which I must admit is astonishing!

[snow_wizzard]

Brrrr! That 18z run is cold! It is showing a complete height collapse and brisk N to NW winds by next weekend. After that, it could be N to NNE flow aloft for days. I sure hope it's true!

By the way, I must admit it feels good out there today.

[snow_wizzard]

Once again, the analogs for the pattern expected later in the month are from cold phase years. Today we have 1950, 1952, 1955, 1970, 1971, and others. Two very noteworthy things...these analogs are from years when we were in our last cold climate phase, and none of them are from recent years. Very good evidence that something has changed this year. I can already taste the cold weather in our future!

I am confident that any naysayers on this will be convinced in the not too distant furture.

[AnthonyC]

A truly awesome day today!! Mostly sunny and warm!! Gotta love it!!

I still don't buy the extended forecast...esp. coming from the GFS. The GFS is complete crap right now...it can't predict within 24 hours let alone a week. So Snow_Wizzard, don't get your hopes up too high. This week looks warm and sunny!!

Anthony

[R-Dub]

A warm day here in Moses Lake! Currently at 4:40PM its 64 degrees with cloudy skies. Mostly high clouds. The top of Snoqualmie pass has pretty much NO snow, scary stuff! An awesome drive over though! It was 53 degees at the top of the pass at 11:00AM

[R-Dub]

Just saw the forecast for here in Moses Lake on the Spokane news and they are saying 68-73 degrees for a high tomarrow with mostly sunny skies!! Very tinder dry here though!! My mom can't even remember the last time it rained here!!

BTW dial up sucks Better then nothing though I guess
No other option here in the north end of Moses lake though. Still kind of a remote area though every time I come here there is a new house being built across the lake.

[DS]

Looks like a major pattern change is looming. Although all models finally show the eastern trough moving out, followed by a mini trough starting in the west, they may a little bit fast. Typically, with such strong Greenland blocks, the patterns don't just flip around in a couple of days. However, teleconnections are also starting to favor a decent western trough that could bring at least some winter weather in the starved PAC NW by the 15-20th of March of so.

[krysof]

your time is ending, its running out no matter how strong a trough in the west may set up

[snow_wizzard]

Well folks....it's not only the GFS!

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

Look at the last panel. Cold stuff! By day 6 we already have a massive and very strong surface high to the NW...that feature brings below normal temps whatever time of year it happens.

[Guest]

Krysof, lets let mother nature decide when and when not we are running out of time... There is no rule book that says it can't happen in mid march.

[andrewr]

I think snow_wizzard is just looking for below normal temperatures, not necessarily snow or a deep freeze.

[TT-SEA]

I am looking for RAIN.

And mountain snow.


I do not care anymore about the temperature.

[Guest]

Andrew, you are right about Snow Wizzard looking for Below Normal temps... but Snow and deep freeze is WHAT WE WANT ALL THE TIME... Even though a deep freeze probably isn't going to happen, snow is definately possible in Mid March, and the 18z supports snow at times... This looks good...

[Guest]

Don't get me wrong, below normal temperatures are great for mid march and we would be happy, but by no means do we NOT WANT cold and snow.

[AnthonyC]

Increasing clouds...but a nice day overall. Tomorrow also looks nice. Actually, the entire week looks nice.

I still wouldn't get my hopes up just yet. This blocking pattern is very stubborn...it's gonna take a MAJOR pattern shift to mix things up. Latest NWS discussion suggests the ridge of high pressure with retrograde to 140W allowing a cooler, northwesterly flow...but still plenty of sunshine with afternoon high temperatures near 50. That's not bad.

I guess we need lowland rain, mountain snow...but I don't want this warm/sunny streak to end!!

Anthony

[andycottle]

A nice mild day today with mainly partly cloudy skies, though skies became a bit more cloudy toward early evening. My high today was 64 with a low of 47. Oh and BTW...another BUSY day at Molbaks today!
-- Andy

[andycottle]

Hi all!

Looking at tonights GFS, tomorrow and Tuesday appear to feature just few light sprinkles...but with high 500MB vorticity heights of 570DM and brisk westerly winds of 30 to 40kts plus, and 850MB temp around +9C and light to breezy SW to WSW winds of near 20kts......I will go with partly cloudy skies and highs again in the mid 60`s and maybe even upper 60`s. On the 9th, we could maybe see some actuall showers, but with another small high pressure ridge for the 10th through this coming weekend....that the system may end up getting split apart and and only giving some clouds at times. Lets hope this nice weather continues!

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

It looks like a big change is all but certain now! All of the models show what could be a decent cold snap for us next week. After that the GFS is running with the idea of the block finally crashing, putting us into a cool and wet pattern. Just how cold it may get before the block breaks down is a big question. The last two two runs have shown 850mb temps dropping to about -10C...certainly cold enough to see some snow when we come out of the cold spell.

An interesting note. The setup shown in the 6 - 10 day period would represent one of the most profoundly negative PNA, AO, NAO combinations in decades. Another sign things are changing! As far as I know the last time with that combination was in the early 1970s. The thing that is so outstanding is the way the ridge is progged to bridge across all of northern Canada with an easterly flow cutting across the entire southern half of that country. I hope the cold spell can last a couple of days longer than what is being indicated, but I will take what I can get. It certainly looks like things could be very active for a long period of time once things get going. This is shaping up to be an exciting year!

[TT-SEA]

The latest GFS does look very strange.

I just think its too strange to be real.

I wonder what Don thinks??

[snow_wizzard]

TT...Interestingly enough the analogs actually showed there is a precedence for the setup that the GFS is indicating. It goes way back to years like 1950, 1952, 1955, 1971, etc. All years that would have put a smile on my face! In fact 1955 was the coldest year of the 20th century! Oh, to see that again! According to the records, I would guess that the trees were bare until late April that year. I am not saying this is going to be another 1955, but I like the fact there may be some parallels.

I already asked Don what he thought, and he said we will get colder, but not necessarily really cold.