Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #3001 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 4:58 pm

From what I can remember , when the actual weather is consistently worse than the forecast that is a sign we are in a deterorating pattern. The models sometimes like to hold onto an established regime for too long.

The 12z is sure back to the cool Canadian stuff again. I am not ready to buy it yet, but things are looking a bit chilly (by 10 day or sooner) if it verifies.

R-Dub · #3002 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 5:29 pm

Kind of a wild PNA forecast, looks more like a roller coster ride :lol:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

Currently 55.8 degrees and mostly cloudy

Guest · #3003 Postby **Guest** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 5:32 pm

I don't know about the weather for the next couple weeks... But I do know one thing... SONICS ARE GOIN ALL THE WAY THIS YEAR... Anyone watch the game last night? IT WAS AWESOME.

Sorry I'm off the topic it's just that everything seems up in the air right now... We are definately in a pattern shift but we don't know what's to come of it...

AnthonyC · #3004 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 5:36 pm

WINDY outside!! Gusts probably up to 30mph. Is it windy anywhere else?

That PNA forecast is interesting. Seems to dip pretty low in the next few weeks. But remember, that doesn't always mean a return to cold weather. We all know what happened in the beginning of January.

Not an awesome day, but I'll take it. Mostly cloudy with mild conditions.

Anthony

R-Dub · #3005 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 5:45 pm

Just breezy here, probably gusting up to near 15-20MPH

Guest · #3006 Postby **Guest** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 6:37 pm

It does mean that we are headed towards either a colder or wetter pattern... The GFS 18z sure supports cold weather.

andycottle · #3007 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:24 pm

AnthonyC wrote:You know it's Spring when Home Depot is packed!! Just got back...every single parking space is full.

Not the best day...or at least what I was hoping for. Alot of high/middle level clouds with no sun. Temperature is mild...55F...but no sun. Hopefully tomorrow's a little better. Off to do some yard work!!

Anthony

Change that! You know it`s spring when there is a large crowd and tring to help as many people you can when working at Molbaks today. Now that`s spring for ya!:) Definally a lot of people there today! -- Andy

R-Dub · #3008 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:26 pm

3/5/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:25:05 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 54.6
Humidity (%) 53.3
Wind (mph) SE 1.5
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.28
Dew Point: 39.9 ºF

R-Dub · #3009 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:30 pm

andycottle wrote:
AnthonyC wrote:You know it's Spring when Home Depot is packed!! Just got back...every single parking space is full.

Not the best day...or at least what I was hoping for. Alot of high/middle level clouds with no sun. Temperature is mild...55F...but no sun. Hopefully tomorrow's a little better. Off to do some yard work!!

Anthony

Change that! You know it`s spring when there is a large crowd and tring to help as many people you can when working at Molbaks today. Now that`s spring for ya!:) Definally a lot of people there today! -- Andy

Not to mention all the golfers at the course this morning! Really seemed like a summer Saturday with the volume of people golfing 8-)

andycottle · #3010 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:45 pm

Not to bad of a day here weather wise. Skies were partly cloudy to overcast at times, but it was just kinda a light overcast and enough to where the sun could still shine through a little bit. Todays clouds ranged in the form of cirrus, alto cumulus and alto stratus. Though like I said, not a completely cloudy day. My high today was 61 tih a low of 41

Here`s a couple pics I took of the high cirrus clouds today. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

andycottle · #3011 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Mar 05, 2005 10:55 pm

Tonights 18z GFS is showing/keeping a threat of light showers tomorrow through Friday the 11th. Then 12th - 16th looks like high pressure builds up, but also turns much cooler by the 14th. In the extened, 18th - 21st...we have what looks to be a very wet ans somewhat mild pattern.
-- Andy

AnthonyC · #3012 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 12:45 am

Gotta love the Cheesecake Factory!! lol.

Not much activity tonight. But nothing new to talk about. Tomorrow might be a decent day...the GFS is overdoing the next system. I could be very similar to today...maybe even better.

As for the extended, I decent stretch of rain is coming late next weekend. But still no cooler weather...500 mb heights don't lower below 550.

I think it's safe to say the chance of lowland snow is zero from here on out. The mountains can go through the middle of May...but even that doesn't look too good this season.

Goodnite to all!!

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #3013 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 3:14 am

The GFS has now been very consistent in showing a period of solidly below normal temps in the 7 - 11 day period. This surface pressure map shows 1000 - 500mb thickness of 528 with a NW wind pressure gradient from the northern Gulf of Alaska. That is pretty chilly stuff.

I would not plant that garden yet!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... p_192m.htm

Update: Wow! What a great GFS run. First of all a nice cold snap, and then a possible big lowland rain with major snowfall in the mountains. With such a profound northerly flow in the 7 - 13 day period, we could even see a flake or two in the lowlands. Way too early to have any confidence in that yet. At any rate, most of the people who are drooling over this current weather are going to be BITTERLY disappointed with what's coming! :lol:

TT-SEA · #3014 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 10:22 am

Snow-Wizzard...

You need to calm down when looking at one run of the GFS (particularly in the long term). The 06Z run is TOTALLY different. The fact is... the GFS cannot even get the short term right. This blocking pattern just will not go away... it is starting to get depressing.

Also... I doubt many people will be "bitterly" disappointed about getting heavy rain and mountain snow now that we are in a drought. I am praying for that to happen!!

andycottle · #3015 Postby **andycottle** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 11:55 am

Good morning you all.

Looking at the 6z and 12z GFS...it appears that the best threat of showers will be 6z - 18z on the 9th. And for the 7th, 8th, and 10th...weak systems will just brush our Northern areas to give us mainly overcast skies with maybe a spotty sprinkel. 11th - 15th, a small ridge of high pressure keeps us mostly dry with a possible shower or two on the 12th. In the extened, we could possibly see a wet pattern setting up. - -Andy

R-Dub · #3016 Postby **R-Dub** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 12:24 pm

Currently 51.8 degrees and cloudy.

Well I am off to Moses Lake to find some sun, I will probably post the weather over there tomarrow morning.
Have a great Sunday everyone 8-)

AnthonyC · #3017 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:03 pm

And the blocking pattern continues...

The threat of rain this week is almost gone. The GFS has been a terrible model lately...overdoing all weather systems that try to come onshore. Today looks like an awesome day...mostly sunny with temperatures near 60F. Actually, most of this week looks the same. Although the GFS does show rain a few days, this blocking pattern should prevent anything from reaching the Puget Sound.

The GFS still insists on a pattern change beginning this weekend, but I'm skeptical. This blocking pattern just doesn't want to give up. Don't get me wrong, we need rain and mountain snow but if you can't have it, why not enjoy this awesome weather!!?

Anthony

PS-Anyone feel that 3.5 magnitude earthquake this morning?! It was centered in Marysville. I heard a loud rumble and a brief period of shaking. Nothing big, but it was still cool!

TT-SEA · #3018 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:46 pm

Not the drama that Snow_Wizzard wants... but we do have some agreement on a cooler, wetter pattern next week.

If this blocking pattern cannot break down from the west... it may as well break down from the east.

Here is the latest ECMWF for next weekend...

snow_wizzard · #3019 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:48 pm

We appear to be closing in some real at long last! The GFS continues the idea of a cool zonal flow after day 10. I still like the northerly flow it is showing before that also. This looks very promising, but there is obviously still time for something to go wrong. Keep in mind, however, that the PNA forecast has not looked like this for a long time.

TT-SEA · #3020 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun Mar 06, 2005 1:57 pm

Northerly flow will NOT mean sub-freezing weather in mid-March this year.

If you noticed... it has been getting up into the 30's and 40's in Alaska lately. Even Fairbanks is pretty mild now.

The best we can hope for... even with air coming straight from the north... are highs in the upper 40's and lows in the upper 30's.

MAYBE some rain and mountain snow.

I love this sunny, warm weather but like I said... it is making me anxious now. We need precipitation in any form.

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